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An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel

Mark Evans Orcid Logo

International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, Volume: 206, Start page: 105047

Swansea University Author: Mark Evans Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.ijpvp.2023.105047

Abstract

It is important to be able to predict the creep life of materials used in power plants. This paper illustrates the inadequacies of existing parametric creep models in achieving this aim for 2.25Cr–1Mo steel. This breakdown occurs due to different creep mechanisms being present at different test cond...

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Published in: International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping
ISSN: 0308-0161 1879-3541
Published: Elsevier BV 2023
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64042
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spelling v2 64042 2023-08-08 An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel 7720f04c308cf7a1c32312058780d20c 0000-0003-2056-2396 Mark Evans Mark Evans true false 2023-08-08 MTLS It is important to be able to predict the creep life of materials used in power plants. This paper illustrates the inadequacies of existing parametric creep models in achieving this aim for 2.25Cr–1Mo steel. This breakdown occurs due to different creep mechanisms being present at different test conditions. This paper puts forward a locally weighted estimation technique (LOESS) to tackle this problem that importantly maintains the parametric model's structure by using local (to the test condition) weighted regression procedures. It was observed that this technique not only produces more sensible values for key parameters such as the activation energy, but it also produces much more accurate predictions of lifetimes close to operating conditions when using only short-term data (less than 10,000 h) to quantify the creep models unknown parameters. The variation in the model's creep parameters with stress were also consistent with previous studies on the changing creep mechanisms for this material. Journal Article International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 206 105047 Elsevier BV 0308-0161 1879-3541 LOESS estimation, Creep, Parametric models, Cross validation 31 12 2023 2023-12-31 10.1016/j.ijpvp.2023.105047 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2023.105047 COLLEGE NANME Materials Science and Engineering COLLEGE CODE MTLS Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) Swansea University 2023-09-12T14:52:15.2083616 2023-08-08T10:57:57.4136824 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Materials Science and Engineering Mark Evans 0000-0003-2056-2396 1 64042__28443__7c6d5a362f6f4c099799271a2af8a82b.pdf 64042 Vor.pdf 2023-09-04T16:40:08.1957304 Output 12044938 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2023 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0). true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel
spellingShingle An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel
Mark Evans
title_short An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel
title_full An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel
title_fullStr An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel
title_full_unstemmed An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel
title_sort An estimation method (LOESS) for dealing with the imperfections of existing parametric creep models for time to failure: Illustrated using 2.25Cr–1Mo steel
author_id_str_mv 7720f04c308cf7a1c32312058780d20c
author_id_fullname_str_mv 7720f04c308cf7a1c32312058780d20c_***_Mark Evans
author Mark Evans
author2 Mark Evans
format Journal article
container_title International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping
container_volume 206
container_start_page 105047
publishDate 2023
institution Swansea University
issn 0308-0161
1879-3541
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.ijpvp.2023.105047
publisher Elsevier BV
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Materials Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Materials Science and Engineering
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2023.105047
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description It is important to be able to predict the creep life of materials used in power plants. This paper illustrates the inadequacies of existing parametric creep models in achieving this aim for 2.25Cr–1Mo steel. This breakdown occurs due to different creep mechanisms being present at different test conditions. This paper puts forward a locally weighted estimation technique (LOESS) to tackle this problem that importantly maintains the parametric model's structure by using local (to the test condition) weighted regression procedures. It was observed that this technique not only produces more sensible values for key parameters such as the activation energy, but it also produces much more accurate predictions of lifetimes close to operating conditions when using only short-term data (less than 10,000 h) to quantify the creep models unknown parameters. The variation in the model's creep parameters with stress were also consistent with previous studies on the changing creep mechanisms for this material.
published_date 2023-12-31T14:52:16Z
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score 11.013171

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