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Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study

Emily Lowthian Orcid Logo, Stuart Bedston, Olivia Deavall, Tom Crick Orcid Logo, Lucy Griffiths Orcid Logo, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Alexandra Lee, Gemma Hammerton, Jon Heron, Donald Forrester

British Educational Research Journal

Swansea University Authors: Emily Lowthian Orcid Logo, Stuart Bedston, Olivia Deavall, Tom Crick Orcid Logo, Lucy Griffiths Orcid Logo, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Alexandra Lee

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DOI (Published version): 10.1002/berj.70155

Abstract

Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood—termed care-experienced—can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexiti...

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Published in: British Educational Research Journal
ISSN: 0141-1926 1469-3518
Published: Wiley 2026
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa71607
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However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care-experience and attainment. We used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000 and 2003. Children were followed until their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three-step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. 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This research was supported by Administrative Data Research (ADR) Wales. ADR Wales brings together data science experts at Swansea University Medical School, staff from the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data (WISERD) at Cardiff University and specialist teams within the Welsh Government to develop new evidence which supports the Programme for Government by using the SAIL Databank at Swansea University to link and analyse anonymised data. 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spelling 2026-04-28T11:06:39.8050747 v2 71607 2026-03-10 Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study db5bc529b8a9dfca2b4a268d14e03479 0000-0001-9362-0046 Emily Lowthian Emily Lowthian true false c79d07eaba5c9515c0df82b372b76a41 Stuart Bedston Stuart Bedston true false bd091361d8960d7dafd39176eec689f0 Olivia Deavall Olivia Deavall true false 200c66ef0fc55391f736f6e926fb4b99 0000-0001-5196-9389 Tom Crick Tom Crick true false e35ea6ea4b429e812ef204b048131d93 0000-0001-9230-624X Lucy Griffiths Lucy Griffiths true false aa1b025ec0243f708bb5eb0a93d6fb52 0000-0003-0814-0801 Ashley Akbari Ashley Akbari true false 7c6dc217555b0fea264ff0dd7d0aa374 Alexandra Lee Alexandra Lee true false 2026-03-10 SOSS Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood—termed care-experienced—can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care-experience and attainment. We used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000 and 2003. Children were followed until their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three-step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. To explore the pathways to attainment, we applied causal mediation analysis to assess how school-related factors—school moves, free school meals, and suspension or exclusion—mediated the relationship between the care profiles and their attainment at age 15/16. We identified seven care-experience profiles. Children who were adopted had the highest attainment, while those entering foster care later had the lowest. School-related factors explained some of the lower attainment among children with short, early care who returned home. These findings highlight the complexity of care experiences and their association with attainment. We advocate for improved support in Wales, including implementing the Virtual School Model and broader definitions to ensure inclusive support for children who may be hidden to schools. Journal Article British Educational Research Journal 0 Wiley 0141-1926 1469-3518 administrative data, attainment, care-experienced, mediation, social care 14 4 2026 2026-04-14 10.1002/berj.70155 COLLEGE NANME Social Sciences School COLLEGE CODE SOSS Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) This research was supported by Health and Care Research Wales (SCG-21-1861), a networked organisation, supported by Welsh Government, which brings together a wide range of partners across the NHS in Wales, local authorities, universities, research institutions, third sector and others. This research was supported by Administrative Data Research (ADR) Wales. ADR Wales brings together data science experts at Swansea University Medical School, staff from the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data (WISERD) at Cardiff University and specialist teams within the Welsh Government to develop new evidence which supports the Programme for Government by using the SAIL Databank at Swansea University to link and analyse anonymised data. ADR Wales (ES/W012227/1) is part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK programme. 2026-04-28T11:06:39.8050747 2026-03-10T19:42:02.8744131 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Social Sciences - Education and Childhood Studies Emily Lowthian 0000-0001-9362-0046 1 Stuart Bedston 2 Olivia Deavall 3 Tom Crick 0000-0001-5196-9389 4 Lucy Griffiths 0000-0001-9230-624X 5 Ashley Akbari 0000-0003-0814-0801 6 Alexandra Lee 7 Gemma Hammerton 8 Jon Heron 9 Donald Forrester 10 71607__36610__ab1121db270845fb924b9028764f0c46.pdf 71607.VOR.pdf 2026-04-27T13:56:27.2156356 Output 1028644 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2026 The Author(s). British Educational Research Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Educational Research Association. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study
spellingShingle Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study
Emily Lowthian
Stuart Bedston
Olivia Deavall
Tom Crick
Lucy Griffiths
Ashley Akbari
Alexandra Lee
title_short Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study
title_full Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study
title_fullStr Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study
title_full_unstemmed Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study
title_sort Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study
author_id_str_mv db5bc529b8a9dfca2b4a268d14e03479
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author_id_fullname_str_mv db5bc529b8a9dfca2b4a268d14e03479_***_Emily Lowthian
c79d07eaba5c9515c0df82b372b76a41_***_Stuart Bedston
bd091361d8960d7dafd39176eec689f0_***_Olivia Deavall
200c66ef0fc55391f736f6e926fb4b99_***_Tom Crick
e35ea6ea4b429e812ef204b048131d93_***_Lucy Griffiths
aa1b025ec0243f708bb5eb0a93d6fb52_***_Ashley Akbari
7c6dc217555b0fea264ff0dd7d0aa374_***_Alexandra Lee
author Emily Lowthian
Stuart Bedston
Olivia Deavall
Tom Crick
Lucy Griffiths
Ashley Akbari
Alexandra Lee
author2 Emily Lowthian
Stuart Bedston
Olivia Deavall
Tom Crick
Lucy Griffiths
Ashley Akbari
Alexandra Lee
Gemma Hammerton
Jon Heron
Donald Forrester
format Journal article
container_title British Educational Research Journal
container_volume 0
publishDate 2026
institution Swansea University
issn 0141-1926
1469-3518
doi_str_mv 10.1002/berj.70155
publisher Wiley
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Social Sciences - Education and Childhood Studies{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Social Sciences - Education and Childhood Studies
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood—termed care-experienced—can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care-experience and attainment. We used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000 and 2003. Children were followed until their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three-step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. To explore the pathways to attainment, we applied causal mediation analysis to assess how school-related factors—school moves, free school meals, and suspension or exclusion—mediated the relationship between the care profiles and their attainment at age 15/16. We identified seven care-experience profiles. Children who were adopted had the highest attainment, while those entering foster care later had the lowest. School-related factors explained some of the lower attainment among children with short, early care who returned home. These findings highlight the complexity of care experiences and their association with attainment. We advocate for improved support in Wales, including implementing the Virtual School Model and broader definitions to ensure inclusive support for children who may be hidden to schools.
published_date 2026-04-14T07:56:27Z
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