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Educational pathways and outcomes for care‐experienced children: A 16‐year longitudinal study
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Stuart Bedston,
Olivia Deavall,
Tom Crick ,
Lucy Griffiths ,
Ashley Akbari ,
Alexandra Lee,
Gemma Hammerton,
Jon Heron,
Donald Forrester
British Educational Research Journal
Swansea University Authors:
Emily Lowthian , Stuart Bedston, Olivia Deavall, Tom Crick , Lucy Griffiths , Ashley Akbari , Alexandra Lee
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© 2026 The Author(s). British Educational Research Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Educational Research Association. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
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DOI (Published version): 10.1002/berj.70155
Abstract
Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood—termed care-experienced—can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexiti...
| Published in: | British Educational Research Journal |
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| ISSN: | 0141-1926 1469-3518 |
| Published: |
Wiley
2026
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| Online Access: |
Check full text
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa71607 |
| Abstract: |
Children who are removed from their birth families during childhood—termed care-experienced—can be at risk for lower educational attainment and poorer school experiences, often linked to deprivation and behavioural factors. However, research often uses aggregated measures that obscure the complexities of care (e.g. timing, and placements) and evidence is needed to understand the factors that could explain the link between care-experience and attainment. We used anonymised, individual-level, population-scale linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank, covering children born in Wales between 2000 and 2003. Children were followed until their examinations at age 10/11 and 15/16 to assess attainment. To capture the complexity of care experiences, we conducted latent class analysis to identify distinct care profiles. Using a three-step approach, we estimated the association between these profiles and attainment at age 10/11. To explore the pathways to attainment, we applied causal mediation analysis to assess how school-related factors—school moves, free school meals, and suspension or exclusion—mediated the relationship between the care profiles and their attainment at age 15/16. We identified seven care-experience profiles. Children who were adopted had the highest attainment, while those entering foster care later had the lowest. School-related factors explained some of the lower attainment among children with short, early care who returned home. These findings highlight the complexity of care experiences and their association with attainment. We advocate for improved support in Wales, including implementing the Virtual School Model and broader definitions to ensure inclusive support for children who may be hidden to schools. |
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| Keywords: |
administrative data, attainment, care-experienced, mediation, social care |
| College: |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |
| Funders: |
This research was supported by Health and Care Research Wales (SCG-21-1861), a networked organisation, supported by Welsh Government, which brings together a wide range of partners across the NHS in Wales, local authorities, universities, research institutions, third sector and others. This research was supported by Administrative Data Research (ADR) Wales. ADR Wales brings together data science experts at Swansea University Medical School, staff from the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data (WISERD) at Cardiff University and specialist teams within the Welsh Government to develop new evidence which supports the Programme for Government by using the SAIL Databank at Swansea University to link and analyse anonymised data. ADR Wales (ES/W012227/1) is part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK programme. |