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Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential?

Sarah Weil, Marceau Habrant, Sébastien Lavergne Orcid Logo, William Allen Orcid Logo, Laure Gallien Orcid Logo

Biological Invasions, Volume: 27, Issue: 9, Start page: 199

Swansea University Authors: Sarah Weil, William Allen Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1007/s10530-025-03653-x

Abstract

The early identification of future invasive species is crucial for efficient management and preventing further biodiversity decline. Some general predictors of species’ invasiveness, such as association with humans, propagule pressure and particular species’ characteristics, are well established. Ho...

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Published in: Biological Invasions
ISSN: 1387-3547 1573-1464
Published: Springer Nature 2025
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa70558
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Some general predictors of species&#x2019; invasiveness, such as association with humans, propagule pressure and particular species&#x2019; characteristics, are well established. However, obtaining these predictors can be costly and time-consuming, with varying predictive power across taxonomic groups and geographic contexts. To find general predictors of species&#x2019; invasion potential that are straightforward to collect for large groups of species, a recent idea suggests the use of macroevolutionary indicators, such as diversification, niche evolution and past dispersal rates. These macroevolutionary rates are proposed as proxies for characteristics linked to invasion potential, such as ecological niche breadth, evolutionary capacity, or competitive ability. However, this assumption is rarely tested, which is why it is uncertain whether macroevolutionary indicators can serve as reliable predictors of invasion success. Here, we first identify the assumptions made in studies that link macroevolutionary rates to current invasions. Second, we review the literature to evaluate which of these assumptions are supported by scientific evidence. Third, we test whether past biogeographic dispersal ability is a good proxy for current naturalisation success in 12 groups of tetrapods. We conclude that macroevolutionary indicators have substantial potential for predicting species&#x2019; future invasiveness. However, assumptions about the relationships between macroevolutionary indicators and species&#x2019; traits must be rigorously tested. 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spelling 2025-12-09T11:14:21.7620227 v2 70558 2025-10-02 Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential? de573d4a6b3c0e3e2797314303cceb3c Sarah Weil Sarah Weil true false d6f01dd06d25fa8804daad86e251b8a5 0000-0003-2654-0438 William Allen William Allen true false 2025-10-02 BGPS The early identification of future invasive species is crucial for efficient management and preventing further biodiversity decline. Some general predictors of species’ invasiveness, such as association with humans, propagule pressure and particular species’ characteristics, are well established. However, obtaining these predictors can be costly and time-consuming, with varying predictive power across taxonomic groups and geographic contexts. To find general predictors of species’ invasion potential that are straightforward to collect for large groups of species, a recent idea suggests the use of macroevolutionary indicators, such as diversification, niche evolution and past dispersal rates. These macroevolutionary rates are proposed as proxies for characteristics linked to invasion potential, such as ecological niche breadth, evolutionary capacity, or competitive ability. However, this assumption is rarely tested, which is why it is uncertain whether macroevolutionary indicators can serve as reliable predictors of invasion success. Here, we first identify the assumptions made in studies that link macroevolutionary rates to current invasions. Second, we review the literature to evaluate which of these assumptions are supported by scientific evidence. Third, we test whether past biogeographic dispersal ability is a good proxy for current naturalisation success in 12 groups of tetrapods. We conclude that macroevolutionary indicators have substantial potential for predicting species’ future invasiveness. However, assumptions about the relationships between macroevolutionary indicators and species’ traits must be rigorously tested. Further, different invasion pathways (e.g. unintentional vs intentional transport and introduction) and geographical contexts (e.g. continents vs islands) may introduce variability in any general relationships. Journal Article Biological Invasions 27 9 199 Springer Nature 1387-3547 1573-1464 Naturalisation; Diversification rate; Biogeographic dispersal; Niche evolution rate; Speciation; Historical biogeography 2 9 2025 2025-09-02 10.1007/s10530-025-03653-x COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. SSW was supported by Initiative d’excellence (IDEX) International Strategic Partnership (Université Grenoble Alpes) and Swansea University Strategic Partner Research (SUSPR) scholarships. SSW also received funding from the Dorothea Schlözer „Career promotion of female scientists “ Programme from the Georg-August-Universität Göttingen. 2025-12-09T11:14:21.7620227 2025-10-02T08:58:04.1498972 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Sarah Weil 1 Marceau Habrant 2 Sébastien Lavergne 0000-0001-8842-7495 3 William Allen 0000-0003-2654-0438 4 Laure Gallien 0000-0003-4882-1580 5 70558__35794__6a10b316b49e4d1f9744ec7071f07aa7.pdf 70558.VOR.pdf 2025-12-09T11:10:54.2953570 Output 1543563 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential?
spellingShingle Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential?
Sarah Weil
William Allen
title_short Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential?
title_full Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential?
title_fullStr Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential?
title_full_unstemmed Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential?
title_sort Can macroevolution inform contemporary invasion potential?
author_id_str_mv de573d4a6b3c0e3e2797314303cceb3c
d6f01dd06d25fa8804daad86e251b8a5
author_id_fullname_str_mv de573d4a6b3c0e3e2797314303cceb3c_***_Sarah Weil
d6f01dd06d25fa8804daad86e251b8a5_***_William Allen
author Sarah Weil
William Allen
author2 Sarah Weil
Marceau Habrant
Sébastien Lavergne
William Allen
Laure Gallien
format Journal article
container_title Biological Invasions
container_volume 27
container_issue 9
container_start_page 199
publishDate 2025
institution Swansea University
issn 1387-3547
1573-1464
doi_str_mv 10.1007/s10530-025-03653-x
publisher Springer Nature
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hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
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department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
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description The early identification of future invasive species is crucial for efficient management and preventing further biodiversity decline. Some general predictors of species’ invasiveness, such as association with humans, propagule pressure and particular species’ characteristics, are well established. However, obtaining these predictors can be costly and time-consuming, with varying predictive power across taxonomic groups and geographic contexts. To find general predictors of species’ invasion potential that are straightforward to collect for large groups of species, a recent idea suggests the use of macroevolutionary indicators, such as diversification, niche evolution and past dispersal rates. These macroevolutionary rates are proposed as proxies for characteristics linked to invasion potential, such as ecological niche breadth, evolutionary capacity, or competitive ability. However, this assumption is rarely tested, which is why it is uncertain whether macroevolutionary indicators can serve as reliable predictors of invasion success. Here, we first identify the assumptions made in studies that link macroevolutionary rates to current invasions. Second, we review the literature to evaluate which of these assumptions are supported by scientific evidence. Third, we test whether past biogeographic dispersal ability is a good proxy for current naturalisation success in 12 groups of tetrapods. We conclude that macroevolutionary indicators have substantial potential for predicting species’ future invasiveness. However, assumptions about the relationships between macroevolutionary indicators and species’ traits must be rigorously tested. Further, different invasion pathways (e.g. unintentional vs intentional transport and introduction) and geographical contexts (e.g. continents vs islands) may introduce variability in any general relationships.
published_date 2025-09-02T05:32:59Z
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