Journal article 211 views 66 downloads
Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?
,
Sébastien Lavergne,
Florian C. Boucher,
William Allen ,
Laure Gallien
Ecology Letters, Volume: 28, Issue: 7, Start page: e70171
Swansea University Author:
William Allen
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© 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY).
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DOI (Published version): 10.1111/ele.70171
Abstract
Current global changes are driving many species towards extinction, making the early detection of threatened species a priority for efficient conservation actions. However, the threat status of many species remains unknown due to insufficient data on updated distributions, population sizes and popul...
| Published in: | Ecology Letters |
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| ISSN: | 1461-023X 1461-0248 |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025
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| Online Access: |
Check full text
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa68842 |
| Abstract: |
Current global changes are driving many species towards extinction, making the early detection of threatened species a priority for efficient conservation actions. However, the threat status of many species remains unknown due to insufficient data on updated distributions, population sizes and population trends and using ecological indicator traits, such as range size, is not always straightforward. Recent advances suggest that macroevolutionary indicators (rates of extinction, net diversification or niche evolution) could provide novel insights into extinction risk based on the assumption that macroevolutionary rates can serve as proxies for extinction-promoting traits (small range size, narrow niche breadth or low evolutionary potential). However, this assumption has not yet been sufficiently investigated to use this approach. Here, we assess current understanding of the assumptions underlying the relationship between macroevolutionary indices and contemporary extinction risk. We find that only past extinction rates can be reliable predictors of current extinction risk due to their correlation with inherited extinction-promoting traits. Assumptions underlying relationships between current extinction risk and diversification and niche evolution rates vary by taxon or ecological conditions, and require further investigation through targeted studies. When underlying assumptions are validated, macroevolutionary indicators could be promising tools complementing trait-based approaches in identifying inherent extinction risk. |
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| Item Description: |
Synthesis |
| Keywords: |
conservation, diversification rate, extinction rate, extinction risk, macroevolution, macroevolutionary rates, niche evolution, phylogenetic analysis, speciation rate, traits |
| College: |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
| Funders: |
This work was supported by a Swansea University Strategic Partner Research Scholarship (SUSPRS), an Initiative d'excellence (IDEX) International Strategic Partnership Scholarship (Université Grenoble Alpes), and by the Dorothea Schlözer Programme “Career promotion of female scientists” (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen). Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. |
| Issue: |
7 |
| Start Page: |
e70171 |