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Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?

Sarah-Sophie Weil Orcid Logo, Sébastien Lavergne, Florian C. Boucher, William Allen Orcid Logo, Laure Gallien Orcid Logo

Ecology Letters, Volume: 28, Issue: 7, Start page: e70171

Swansea University Author: William Allen Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1111/ele.70171

Abstract

Current global changes are driving many species towards extinction, making the early detection of threatened species a priority for efficient conservation actions. However, the threat status of many species remains unknown due to insufficient data on updated distributions, population sizes and popul...

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Published in: Ecology Letters
ISSN: 1461-023X 1461-0248
Published: Wiley 2025
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa68842
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spelling 2025-06-30T12:35:35.8517231 v2 68842 2025-02-10 Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk? d6f01dd06d25fa8804daad86e251b8a5 0000-0003-2654-0438 William Allen William Allen true false 2025-02-10 BGPS Current global changes are driving many species towards extinction, making the early detection of threatened species a priority for efficient conservation actions. However, the threat status of many species remains unknown due to insufficient data on updated distributions, population sizes and population trends and using ecological indicator traits, such as range size, is not always straightforward. Recent advances suggest that macroevolutionary indicators (rates of extinction, net diversification or niche evolution) could provide novel insights into extinction risk based on the assumption that macroevolutionary rates can serve as proxies for extinction-promoting traits (small range size, narrow niche breadth or low evolutionary potential). However, this assumption has not yet been sufficiently investigated to use this approach. Here, we assess current understanding of the assumptions underlying the relationship between macroevolutionary indices and contemporary extinction risk. We find that only past extinction rates can be reliable predictors of current extinction risk due to their correlation with inherited extinction-promoting traits. Assumptions underlying relationships between current extinction risk and diversification and niche evolution rates vary by taxon or ecological conditions, and require further investigation through targeted studies. When underlying assumptions are validated, macroevolutionary indicators could be promising tools complementing trait-based approaches in identifying inherent extinction risk. Journal Article Ecology Letters 28 7 e70171 Wiley 1461-023X 1461-0248 conservation, diversification rate, extinction rate, extinction risk, macroevolution, macroevolutionary rates, niche evolution, phylogenetic analysis, speciation rate, traits 1 7 2025 2025-07-01 10.1111/ele.70171 Synthesis COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee This work was supported by a Swansea University Strategic Partner Research Scholarship (SUSPRS), an Initiative d'excellence (IDEX) International Strategic Partnership Scholarship (Université Grenoble Alpes), and by the Dorothea Schlözer Programme “Career promotion of female scientists” (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen). Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. 2025-06-30T12:35:35.8517231 2025-02-10T14:21:03.9093569 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Sarah-Sophie Weil 0000-0003-2280-9612 1 Sébastien Lavergne 2 Florian C. Boucher 3 William Allen 0000-0003-2654-0438 4 Laure Gallien 0000-0003-4882-1580 5 68842__34624__2778d943d27a40caa6d824c36ab26e44.pdf 68842.VOR.pdf 2025-06-30T12:31:44.3508230 Output 2442501 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?
spellingShingle Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?
William Allen
title_short Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?
title_full Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?
title_fullStr Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?
title_full_unstemmed Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?
title_sort Can Macroevolution Inform Contemporary Extinction Risk?
author_id_str_mv d6f01dd06d25fa8804daad86e251b8a5
author_id_fullname_str_mv d6f01dd06d25fa8804daad86e251b8a5_***_William Allen
author William Allen
author2 Sarah-Sophie Weil
Sébastien Lavergne
Florian C. Boucher
William Allen
Laure Gallien
format Journal article
container_title Ecology Letters
container_volume 28
container_issue 7
container_start_page e70171
publishDate 2025
institution Swansea University
issn 1461-023X
1461-0248
doi_str_mv 10.1111/ele.70171
publisher Wiley
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
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hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
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description Current global changes are driving many species towards extinction, making the early detection of threatened species a priority for efficient conservation actions. However, the threat status of many species remains unknown due to insufficient data on updated distributions, population sizes and population trends and using ecological indicator traits, such as range size, is not always straightforward. Recent advances suggest that macroevolutionary indicators (rates of extinction, net diversification or niche evolution) could provide novel insights into extinction risk based on the assumption that macroevolutionary rates can serve as proxies for extinction-promoting traits (small range size, narrow niche breadth or low evolutionary potential). However, this assumption has not yet been sufficiently investigated to use this approach. Here, we assess current understanding of the assumptions underlying the relationship between macroevolutionary indices and contemporary extinction risk. We find that only past extinction rates can be reliable predictors of current extinction risk due to their correlation with inherited extinction-promoting traits. Assumptions underlying relationships between current extinction risk and diversification and niche evolution rates vary by taxon or ecological conditions, and require further investigation through targeted studies. When underlying assumptions are validated, macroevolutionary indicators could be promising tools complementing trait-based approaches in identifying inherent extinction risk.
published_date 2025-07-01T12:19:42Z
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