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A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic
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Pablo I. P. Ramos,
Felipe A. C. Pereira,
Mateus S. Silva,
Daniel C. P. Jorge,
Roberto F. S. Andrade,
Mauricio L. Barreto,
Marcus Americano da Costa
Scientific Reports, Volume: 11, Issue: 1
Swansea University Author:
Alan Amad
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DOI (Published version): 10.1038/s41598-021-92636-8
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while m...
| Published in: | Scientific Reports |
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| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| Published: |
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
2021
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| Online Access: |
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa60391 |
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| Abstract: |
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able to optimize the level of policies to stop epidemic growth. We applied this system to study the unfolding of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, also assessing the effects of varying population compliance. We show the importance of finely tuning the levels of enforced measures to achieve SARS-CoV-2 containment, with periodic interventions emerging as an optimal control strategy in the long-term. |
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| College: |
Faculty of Science and Engineering |
| Funders: |
I.M.L.P. was supported by CNPq (process number 201143/2019-4). J.F.O was supported by the Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS) through the Zika Platform—a long-term surveillance platform for Zika virus and microcephaly (Unified Health System (SUS), Brazilian Ministry of Health. CIDACS is recipient of a Biomedical Resource Grant from Wellcome Trust, UK). A.A.S.A. gratefully acknowledges the financial support received from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) in the form of grant EP/R002134/1. R.F.S.A. was supported by the National Institute of Science and Technology—Complex Systems from CNPq, Brazil. M.S.S. was supported by CNPq (process number 117790/2020-6). D.C.J. acknowledges a Scientific Initiation scholarship from CNPq (process number 117568/2019-8). |
| Issue: |
1 |