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Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure

James Bull Orcid Logo, Owen R. Jones, Luca Borger Orcid Logo, Novella Franconi Orcid Logo, Roma Banga, Kate Lock, Thomas B. Stringell

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume: 288, Issue: 1964, Start page: 20212284

Swansea University Authors: James Bull Orcid Logo, Luca Borger Orcid Logo, Novella Franconi Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1098/rspb.2021.2284

Abstract

There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longit...

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Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
ISSN: 0962-8452 1471-2954
Published: The Royal Society 2021
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa58898
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A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992&#x2013;2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus, to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2&#xB0;C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</journal><volume>288</volume><journalNumber>1964</journalNumber><paginationStart>20212284</paginationStart><paginationEnd/><publisher>The Royal Society</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>0962-8452</issnPrint><issnElectronic>1471-2954</issnElectronic><keywords>age structure, climate change, grey seal, phenology, population dynamics, sea surface temperature</keywords><publishedDay>8</publishedDay><publishedMonth>12</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2021</publishedYear><publishedDate>2021-12-08</publishedDate><doi>10.1098/rspb.2021.2284</doi><url/><notes>Electronic supplementary material is available online at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5713077.</notes><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Biosciences</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>SBI</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><funders>Natural Resources Wales or its predecessor organization Countryside Council for Wales</funders><projectreference/><lastEdited>2022-11-14T11:46:42.0405248</lastEdited><Created>2021-12-06T11:06:55.0986365</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Science and Engineering</level><level id="2">School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences</level></path><authors><author><firstname>James</firstname><surname>Bull</surname><orcid>0000-0002-4373-6830</orcid><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Owen R.</firstname><surname>Jones</surname><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Luca</firstname><surname>Borger</surname><orcid>0000-0001-8763-5997</orcid><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>Novella</firstname><surname>Franconi</surname><orcid>0000-0002-4572-4083</orcid><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>Roma</firstname><surname>Banga</surname><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>Kate</firstname><surname>Lock</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>Thomas B.</firstname><surname>Stringell</surname><order>7</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>58898__21799__5d8f00c736714afab66e2b03d91be84b.pdf</filename><originalFilename>rspb.2021.2284.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2021-12-06T11:06:55.0826161</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>859631</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>&#xA9; 2021 The Authors. 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spelling 2022-11-14T11:46:42.0405248 v2 58898 2021-12-06 Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure 20742518482c020c80b81b88e5313356 0000-0002-4373-6830 James Bull James Bull true false 8416d0ffc3cccdad6e6d67a455e7c4a2 0000-0001-8763-5997 Luca Borger Luca Borger true false 578d65c768ecf9d38a6cbb457d57d744 0000-0002-4572-4083 Novella Franconi Novella Franconi true false 2021-12-06 SBI There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992–2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus, to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management. Journal Article Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 288 1964 20212284 The Royal Society 0962-8452 1471-2954 age structure, climate change, grey seal, phenology, population dynamics, sea surface temperature 8 12 2021 2021-12-08 10.1098/rspb.2021.2284 Electronic supplementary material is available online at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5713077. COLLEGE NANME Biosciences COLLEGE CODE SBI Swansea University Natural Resources Wales or its predecessor organization Countryside Council for Wales 2022-11-14T11:46:42.0405248 2021-12-06T11:06:55.0986365 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences James Bull 0000-0002-4373-6830 1 Owen R. Jones 2 Luca Borger 0000-0001-8763-5997 3 Novella Franconi 0000-0002-4572-4083 4 Roma Banga 5 Kate Lock 6 Thomas B. Stringell 7 58898__21799__5d8f00c736714afab66e2b03d91be84b.pdf rspb.2021.2284.pdf 2021-12-06T11:06:55.0826161 Output 859631 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2021 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
spellingShingle Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
James Bull
Luca Borger
Novella Franconi
title_short Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
title_full Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
title_fullStr Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
title_full_unstemmed Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
title_sort Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure
author_id_str_mv 20742518482c020c80b81b88e5313356
8416d0ffc3cccdad6e6d67a455e7c4a2
578d65c768ecf9d38a6cbb457d57d744
author_id_fullname_str_mv 20742518482c020c80b81b88e5313356_***_James Bull
8416d0ffc3cccdad6e6d67a455e7c4a2_***_Luca Borger
578d65c768ecf9d38a6cbb457d57d744_***_Novella Franconi
author James Bull
Luca Borger
Novella Franconi
author2 James Bull
Owen R. Jones
Luca Borger
Novella Franconi
Roma Banga
Kate Lock
Thomas B. Stringell
format Journal article
container_title Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
container_volume 288
container_issue 1964
container_start_page 20212284
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
issn 0962-8452
1471-2954
doi_str_mv 10.1098/rspb.2021.2284
publisher The Royal Society
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
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hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
document_store_str 1
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description There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992–2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus, to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management.
published_date 2021-12-08T04:15:47Z
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