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White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk

Hany Mohamed, Mahmoud El‐Gamal

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Volume: 69, Issue: 1

Swansea University Author: Hany Mohamed

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DOI (Published version): 10.1111/sjpe.12279

Abstract

We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover,...

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Published in: Scottish Journal of Political Economy
ISSN: 0036-9292 1467-9485
Published: Wiley 2021
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa56915
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first_indexed 2021-06-09T14:35:05Z
last_indexed 2022-02-15T04:24:15Z
id cronfa56915
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spelling 2022-02-14T13:33:51.6035237 v2 56915 2021-05-19 White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d Hany Mohamed Hany Mohamed true false 2021-05-19 We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries. Journal Article Scottish Journal of Political Economy 69 1 Wiley 0036-9292 1467-9485 economic growth; geopolitical risk; global VAR; mega investment projects; MENA; new normal; oil price shock 4 5 2021 2021-05-04 10.1111/sjpe.12279 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University 2022-02-14T13:33:51.6035237 2021-05-19T11:20:17.3846760 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Management Hany Mohamed 1 Mahmoud El‐Gamal 2 56915__20106__fd611347a300454cade7b9f8a3f8c929.pdf 56915.pdf 2021-06-09T15:34:33.4679497 Output 1876989 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2021 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
title White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk
spellingShingle White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk
Hany Mohamed
title_short White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk
title_full White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk
title_fullStr White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk
title_full_unstemmed White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk
title_sort White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk
author_id_str_mv 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d
author_id_fullname_str_mv 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d_***_Hany Mohamed
author Hany Mohamed
author2 Hany Mohamed
Mahmoud El‐Gamal
format Journal article
container_title Scottish Journal of Political Economy
container_volume 69
container_issue 1
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
issn 0036-9292
1467-9485
doi_str_mv 10.1111/sjpe.12279
publisher Wiley
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Management{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Management
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.
published_date 2021-05-04T04:12:14Z
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score 10.99807

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