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White elephants on quicksand: Low oil prices and high geopolitical risk / Hany Mohamed, Mahmoud El‐Gamal

Scottish Journal of Political Economy

Swansea University Author: Hany Mohamed

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DOI (Published version): 10.1111/sjpe.12279

Abstract

We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover,...

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Published in: Scottish Journal of Political Economy
ISSN: 0036-9292 1467-9485
Published: Wiley 2021
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa56915
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Abstract: We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.
Keywords: economic growth; geopolitical risk; global VAR; mega investment projects; MENA; new normal; oil price shock
College: School of Management