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Disease control across urban–rural gradients
Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Volume: 17, Issue: 173, Start page: 20200775
Swansea University Authors: Konstans Wells , Miguel Lurgi Rivera , Biagio Lucini , Michael Gravenor
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DOI (Published version): 10.1098/rsif.2020.0775
Abstract
Controlling the regional re-emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) after its initial spread in ever-changing personal contact networks and disease landscapes is a challenging task. In a landscape context, contact opportunities within and between populations are cha...
Published in: | Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
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ISSN: | 1742-5662 1742-5662 |
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The Royal Society
2020
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URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa55650 |
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In a landscape context, contact opportunities within and between populations are changing rapidly as lockdown measures are relaxed and a number of social activities re-activated. Using an individual-based metapopulation model, we explored the efficacy of different control strategies across an urban–rural gradient in Wales, UK. Our model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low. Additional isolation of non-symptomatic infected individuals, who may be detected by effective test-and-trace strategies, is pivotal to reducing the overall epidemic size over a wider range of transmission scenarios. We define an ‘urban–rural gradient in epidemic size' as a correlation between regional epidemic size and connectivity within the region, with more highly connected urban populations experiencing relatively larger outbreaks. For interventions focused on regional lockdowns, the strength of such gradients in epidemic size increased with higher travel frequencies, indicating a reduced efficacy of the control measure in the urban regions under these conditions. When both non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals are isolated or regional lockdown strategies are enforced, we further found the strongest urban–rural epidemic gradients at high transmission rates. This effect was reversed for strategies targeted at symptomatic individuals only. Our results emphasize the importance of test-and-trace strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Journal of The Royal Society Interface</journal><volume>17</volume><journalNumber>173</journalNumber><paginationStart>20200775</paginationStart><paginationEnd/><publisher>The Royal Society</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>1742-5662</issnPrint><issnElectronic>1742-5662</issnElectronic><keywords>disease spread, epidemiological metapopulation dynamics, pandemic control, source–sink dynamics</keywords><publishedDay>23</publishedDay><publishedMonth>12</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2020</publishedYear><publishedDate>2020-12-23</publishedDate><doi>10.1098/rsif.2020.0775</doi><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Biosciences Geography and Physics School</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>BGPS</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2021-02-01T14:53:50.3732272</lastEdited><Created>2020-11-12T14:03:07.9161849</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Science and Engineering</level><level id="2">School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Konstans</firstname><surname>Wells</surname><orcid>0000-0003-0377-2463</orcid><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Miguel</firstname><surname>Lurgi Rivera</surname><orcid>0000-0001-9891-895X</orcid><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Brendan</firstname><surname>Collins</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>Biagio</firstname><surname>Lucini</surname><orcid>0000-0001-8974-8266</orcid><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>Rowland R.</firstname><surname>Kao</surname><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>Alun L.</firstname><surname>Lloyd</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>Simon D. W.</firstname><surname>Frost</surname><order>7</order></author><author><firstname>Michael</firstname><surname>Gravenor</surname><orcid>0000-0003-0710-0947</orcid><order>8</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>55650__18944__2097c08b1e8a4767b7c8557ffc646ad4.pdf</filename><originalFilename>55650.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2020-12-30T14:35:50.8744975</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>1314112</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>© 2020 The Authors. Released under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language><licence>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807> |
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2021-02-01T14:53:50.3732272 v2 55650 2020-11-12 Disease control across urban–rural gradients d18166c31e89833c55ef0f2cbb551243 0000-0003-0377-2463 Konstans Wells Konstans Wells true false 947df89d116a1ab75515e421089e0443 0000-0001-9891-895X Miguel Lurgi Rivera Miguel Lurgi Rivera true false 7e6fcfe060e07a351090e2a8aba363cf 0000-0001-8974-8266 Biagio Lucini Biagio Lucini true false 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6 0000-0003-0710-0947 Michael Gravenor Michael Gravenor true false 2020-11-12 BGPS Controlling the regional re-emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) after its initial spread in ever-changing personal contact networks and disease landscapes is a challenging task. In a landscape context, contact opportunities within and between populations are changing rapidly as lockdown measures are relaxed and a number of social activities re-activated. Using an individual-based metapopulation model, we explored the efficacy of different control strategies across an urban–rural gradient in Wales, UK. Our model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low. Additional isolation of non-symptomatic infected individuals, who may be detected by effective test-and-trace strategies, is pivotal to reducing the overall epidemic size over a wider range of transmission scenarios. We define an ‘urban–rural gradient in epidemic size' as a correlation between regional epidemic size and connectivity within the region, with more highly connected urban populations experiencing relatively larger outbreaks. For interventions focused on regional lockdowns, the strength of such gradients in epidemic size increased with higher travel frequencies, indicating a reduced efficacy of the control measure in the urban regions under these conditions. When both non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals are isolated or regional lockdown strategies are enforced, we further found the strongest urban–rural epidemic gradients at high transmission rates. This effect was reversed for strategies targeted at symptomatic individuals only. Our results emphasize the importance of test-and-trace strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas. Journal Article Journal of The Royal Society Interface 17 173 20200775 The Royal Society 1742-5662 1742-5662 disease spread, epidemiological metapopulation dynamics, pandemic control, source–sink dynamics 23 12 2020 2020-12-23 10.1098/rsif.2020.0775 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University 2021-02-01T14:53:50.3732272 2020-11-12T14:03:07.9161849 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Konstans Wells 0000-0003-0377-2463 1 Miguel Lurgi Rivera 0000-0001-9891-895X 2 Brendan Collins 3 Biagio Lucini 0000-0001-8974-8266 4 Rowland R. Kao 5 Alun L. Lloyd 6 Simon D. W. Frost 7 Michael Gravenor 0000-0003-0710-0947 8 55650__18944__2097c08b1e8a4767b7c8557ffc646ad4.pdf 55650.pdf 2020-12-30T14:35:50.8744975 Output 1314112 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2020 The Authors. Released under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
title |
Disease control across urban–rural gradients |
spellingShingle |
Disease control across urban–rural gradients Konstans Wells Miguel Lurgi Rivera Biagio Lucini Michael Gravenor |
title_short |
Disease control across urban–rural gradients |
title_full |
Disease control across urban–rural gradients |
title_fullStr |
Disease control across urban–rural gradients |
title_full_unstemmed |
Disease control across urban–rural gradients |
title_sort |
Disease control across urban–rural gradients |
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d18166c31e89833c55ef0f2cbb551243 947df89d116a1ab75515e421089e0443 7e6fcfe060e07a351090e2a8aba363cf 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6 |
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d18166c31e89833c55ef0f2cbb551243_***_Konstans Wells 947df89d116a1ab75515e421089e0443_***_Miguel Lurgi Rivera 7e6fcfe060e07a351090e2a8aba363cf_***_Biagio Lucini 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6_***_Michael Gravenor |
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Konstans Wells Miguel Lurgi Rivera Biagio Lucini Michael Gravenor |
author2 |
Konstans Wells Miguel Lurgi Rivera Brendan Collins Biagio Lucini Rowland R. Kao Alun L. Lloyd Simon D. W. Frost Michael Gravenor |
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Controlling the regional re-emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) after its initial spread in ever-changing personal contact networks and disease landscapes is a challenging task. In a landscape context, contact opportunities within and between populations are changing rapidly as lockdown measures are relaxed and a number of social activities re-activated. Using an individual-based metapopulation model, we explored the efficacy of different control strategies across an urban–rural gradient in Wales, UK. Our model shows that isolation of symptomatic cases or regional lockdowns in response to local outbreaks have limited efficacy unless the overall transmission rate is kept persistently low. Additional isolation of non-symptomatic infected individuals, who may be detected by effective test-and-trace strategies, is pivotal to reducing the overall epidemic size over a wider range of transmission scenarios. We define an ‘urban–rural gradient in epidemic size' as a correlation between regional epidemic size and connectivity within the region, with more highly connected urban populations experiencing relatively larger outbreaks. For interventions focused on regional lockdowns, the strength of such gradients in epidemic size increased with higher travel frequencies, indicating a reduced efficacy of the control measure in the urban regions under these conditions. When both non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals are isolated or regional lockdown strategies are enforced, we further found the strongest urban–rural epidemic gradients at high transmission rates. This effect was reversed for strategies targeted at symptomatic individuals only. Our results emphasize the importance of test-and-trace strategies and maintaining low transmission rates for efficiently controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread, both at landscape scale and in urban areas. |
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2020-12-23T07:58:05Z |
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