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Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel

M. Evans, Mark Evans Orcid Logo

Materials Science and Technology, Volume: 35, Issue: 16, Pages: 1977 - 1987

Swansea University Author: Mark Evans Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/02670836.2019.1659557

Abstract

The Wilshire equation is a recent addition to the literature on safe life prediction. While the effect of temperature on creep life is reasonably understood, the effect of stress isn’t. The Wilshire equation deals with this by partitioning over sub ranges of stress, but this approximation can lead t...

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Published in: Materials Science and Technology
ISSN: 0267-0836 1743-2847
Published: Informa UK Limited 2019
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa51494
first_indexed 2019-08-21T15:33:42Z
last_indexed 2019-09-10T15:30:44Z
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spelling 2019-09-10T13:18:47.6060709 v2 51494 2019-08-21 Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel 7720f04c308cf7a1c32312058780d20c 0000-0003-2056-2396 Mark Evans Mark Evans true false 2019-08-21 EAAS The Wilshire equation is a recent addition to the literature on safe life prediction. While the effect of temperature on creep life is reasonably understood, the effect of stress isn’t. The Wilshire equation deals with this by partitioning over sub ranges of stress, but this approximation can lead to poor life time predictions. This paper introduces a semi-parametric procedure that allows the data itself to identify the stress relationship. When applied to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel it was found that the stress relationship is non-linear, and this semi-parametric version of the Wilshire model had better predictive performance compared to any partitioned Wilshire model. This approach contains a limit to valid extrapolation and the isothermal predictions for creep life have a more realistic pattern of behaviour. Journal Article Materials Science and Technology 35 16 1977 1987 Informa UK Limited 0267-0836 1743-2847 Creep, Arrhenius, Eyring, Wilshire equations, parametric, semi-parametric, non-parametric, activation energy, steel 2 11 2019 2019-11-02 10.1080/02670836.2019.1659557 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02670836.2019.1659557 COLLEGE NANME Engineering and Applied Sciences School COLLEGE CODE EAAS Swansea University 2019-09-10T13:18:47.6060709 2019-08-21T12:07:23.1628390 M. Evans 1 Mark Evans 0000-0003-2056-2396 2 51494__15057__db0c44f84a1e49fcb2f1c96f1a097a86.pdf evans2019(4).pdf 2019-08-21T12:08:40.7570000 Output 750439 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2020-09-05T00:00:00.0000000 true eng
title Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel
spellingShingle Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel
Mark Evans
title_short Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel
title_full Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel
title_fullStr Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel
title_full_unstemmed Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel
title_sort Semi-parametric estimation of the Wilshire creep life prediction model: an application to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel
author_id_str_mv 7720f04c308cf7a1c32312058780d20c
author_id_fullname_str_mv 7720f04c308cf7a1c32312058780d20c_***_Mark Evans
author Mark Evans
author2 M. Evans
Mark Evans
format Journal article
container_title Materials Science and Technology
container_volume 35
container_issue 16
container_start_page 1977
publishDate 2019
institution Swansea University
issn 0267-0836
1743-2847
doi_str_mv 10.1080/02670836.2019.1659557
publisher Informa UK Limited
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02670836.2019.1659557
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description The Wilshire equation is a recent addition to the literature on safe life prediction. While the effect of temperature on creep life is reasonably understood, the effect of stress isn’t. The Wilshire equation deals with this by partitioning over sub ranges of stress, but this approximation can lead to poor life time predictions. This paper introduces a semi-parametric procedure that allows the data itself to identify the stress relationship. When applied to 2.25Cr-1Mo steel it was found that the stress relationship is non-linear, and this semi-parametric version of the Wilshire model had better predictive performance compared to any partitioned Wilshire model. This approach contains a limit to valid extrapolation and the isothermal predictions for creep life have a more realistic pattern of behaviour.
published_date 2019-11-02T07:47:19Z
_version_ 1821390813980000256
score 11.364387

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