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Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation

Bill Russell, Rosen Chowdhury Orcid Logo

Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume: 35, Pages: 24 - 38

Swansea University Author: Rosen Chowdhury Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.004

Abstract

Most Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated process.However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies andso cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agentsbelieve inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories...

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Published in: Journal of Macroeconomics
ISSN: 01640704
Published: 2013
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa21606
first_indexed 2015-05-21T16:38:39Z
last_indexed 2018-02-09T04:59:20Z
id cronfa21606
recordtype SURis
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spelling 2016-12-08T14:14:44.9365319 v2 21606 2015-05-21 Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation 6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b 0000-0003-1796-9603 Rosen Chowdhury Rosen Chowdhury true false 2015-05-21 SOSS Most Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated process.However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies andso cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agentsbelieve inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematicerrors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillipscurve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstratedthat United States inflation data are consistent with the alternative theory butnot with the existing ‘modern’ theories. Journal Article Journal of Macroeconomics 35 24 38 01640704 Phillips curve,Inflation, Structural breaks, GARCH, Non-Stationary data 31 12 2013 2013-12-31 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.004 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070412001115 COLLEGE NANME Social Sciences School COLLEGE CODE SOSS Swansea University 2016-12-08T14:14:44.9365319 2015-05-21T02:01:46.2692986 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Management - Economics Bill Russell 1 Rosen Chowdhury 0000-0003-1796-9603 2
title Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
spellingShingle Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
Rosen Chowdhury
title_short Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
title_full Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
title_fullStr Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
title_full_unstemmed Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
title_sort Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
author_id_str_mv 6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b
author_id_fullname_str_mv 6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b_***_Rosen Chowdhury
author Rosen Chowdhury
author2 Bill Russell
Rosen Chowdhury
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Macroeconomics
container_volume 35
container_start_page 24
publishDate 2013
institution Swansea University
issn 01640704
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.004
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Management - Economics{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Management - Economics
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070412001115
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description Most Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated process.However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies andso cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agentsbelieve inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematicerrors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillipscurve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstratedthat United States inflation data are consistent with the alternative theory butnot with the existing ‘modern’ theories.
published_date 2013-12-31T06:42:25Z
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score 11.04748

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