Journal article 1738 views
Estimating United States Phillips curves with expectations consistent with the statistical process of inflation
Bill Russell,
Rosen Chowdhury 
Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume: 35, Pages: 24 - 38
Swansea University Author:
Rosen Chowdhury
Full text not available from this repository: check for access using links below.
DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.11.004
Abstract
Most Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated process.However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies andso cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agentsbelieve inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories...
| Published in: | Journal of Macroeconomics |
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| ISSN: | 01640704 |
| Published: |
2013
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| Online Access: |
Check full text
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa21606 |
| Abstract: |
Most Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated process.However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies andso cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agentsbelieve inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematicerrors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillipscurve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstratedthat United States inflation data are consistent with the alternative theory butnot with the existing ‘modern’ theories. |
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| Keywords: |
Phillips curve,Inflation, Structural breaks, GARCH, Non-Stationary data |
| College: |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |
| Start Page: |
24 |
| End Page: |
38 |