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What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections

Matthew Wall Orcid Logo, Maria Laura Sudulich, Kevin Cunningham

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, Volume: 22, Issue: 1, Pages: 3 - 26

Swansea University Author: Matthew Wall Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/17457289.2011.629727

Abstract

This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. It argues that information from betting markets is highly di...

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Published in: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties
ISSN: 1745-7289 1745-7297
Published: 2012
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa13631
Abstract: This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. It argues that information from betting markets is highly disaggregated (offering candidate-level predictions), adjustable throughout the campaign, and free to access – meaning that such data should be a useful resource for electoral forecasters. However, constituency-market gambling data from the site Betfair.com proved to be a relatively poor basis for predicting party seat shares, and there is also evidence suggesting that the data were systematically biased in several ways. Nonetheless, we argue that future research in this area should compensate for these biases to harness the potential of constituency prediction markets for electoral forecasting.
Keywords: Betting Markets; Election Forecasting; UK 2010 Election
College: Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
Issue: 1
Start Page: 3
End Page: 26

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