Journal article 1394 views
What are the Odds? Using Constituency-level Betting Markets to Forecast Seat Shares in the 2010 UK General Elections
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Maria Laura Sudulich,
Kevin Cunningham
Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, Volume: 22, Issue: 1, Pages: 3 - 26
Swansea University Author:
Matthew Wall
Full text not available from this repository: check for access using links below.
DOI (Published version): 10.1080/17457289.2011.629727
Abstract
This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. It argues that information from betting markets is highly di...
| Published in: | Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties |
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| ISSN: | 1745-7289 1745-7297 |
| Published: |
2012
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| Online Access: |
Check full text
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| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa13631 |
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| Abstract: |
This article investigates methodologies for translating data from constituency betting markets in each of the UK's 650 constituencies into national-level predictions of parties' seat shares for the 2010 House of Commons election. It argues that information from betting markets is highly disaggregated (offering candidate-level predictions), adjustable throughout the campaign, and free to access – meaning that such data should be a useful resource for electoral forecasters. However, constituency-market gambling data from the site Betfair.com proved to be a relatively poor basis for predicting party seat shares, and there is also evidence suggesting that the data were systematically biased in several ways. Nonetheless, we argue that future research in this area should compensate for these biases to harness the potential of constituency prediction markets for electoral forecasting. |
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| Keywords: |
Betting Markets; Election Forecasting; UK 2010 Election |
| College: |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |
| Issue: |
1 |
| Start Page: |
3 |
| End Page: |
26 |