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Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years

Kristína Kocáková Orcid Logo, Daniele Silvestro Orcid Logo, Gregor Hans Mathes Orcid Logo, Jaime Andres Villafaña Orcid Logo, Catalina Pimiento Orcid Logo

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume: 292, Issue: 2061, Start page: 20252272

Swansea University Author: Catalina Pimiento Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1098/rspb.2025.2272

Abstract

Understanding extinction mechanisms, including what traits make some species more vulnerable than others, is key in a changing world. It has been proposed that species’ age predicts extinction risk. However, our understanding of age-dependent extinction (ADE) remains unresolved, with positive and ne...

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Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
ISSN: 1471-2954
Published: The Royal Society 2025
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa71034
first_indexed 2025-12-01T13:25:02Z
last_indexed 2026-01-21T05:28:23Z
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spelling 2026-01-20T13:22:14.5749697 v2 71034 2025-12-01 Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years 7dd222e2a1d5971b3f3963f0501a9d4f 0000-0002-5320-7246 Catalina Pimiento Catalina Pimiento true false 2025-12-01 BGPS Understanding extinction mechanisms, including what traits make some species more vulnerable than others, is key in a changing world. It has been proposed that species’ age predicts extinction risk. However, our understanding of age-dependent extinction (ADE) remains unresolved, with positive and negative trends being modelled only as mutually exclusive, and rarely across clade-specific diversification trajectories. Here, we reconstruct the global diversification trajectory of neoselachians (modern sharks and rays) over the past 145 Myr to assess ADE using a new model that allows positive and negative trends to co-occur. We recovered a dynamic diversification trajectory, including four previously undetected extinction events, the most significant in the Eocene–Oligocene. Negative ADE was consistently found over time, with young species, especially those younger than 4 Myr, being more vulnerable. Our results suggest that neoselachians have been more susceptible to extinction than previously recognized, with age being a consistent intrinsic predictor of their vulnerability through deep time. Journal Article Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 292 2061 20252272 The Royal Society 1471-2954 age-dependent extinction, diversification, extinctions, Neoselachii, sharks 17 12 2025 2025-12-17 10.1098/rspb.2025.2272 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) This work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (PRIMA_185798 to C.P.), the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (MISTRA) under the BIOPATH research programme (F 2022/1448 to D.S.), and ETH Zurich (D.S.). 2026-01-20T13:22:14.5749697 2025-12-01T13:22:52.9372675 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Kristína Kocáková 0000-0002-2270-8435 1 Daniele Silvestro 0000-0003-0100-0961 2 Gregor Hans Mathes 0000-0002-2788-1173 3 Jaime Andres Villafaña 0000-0002-6441-9025 4 Catalina Pimiento 0000-0002-5320-7246 5 71034__35873__0678cdf2a6ed43dbad5beb4db555aafb.pdf 71034.VOR.pdf 2025-12-19T13:44:47.9727570 Output 2704400 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2025 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years
spellingShingle Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years
Catalina Pimiento
title_short Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years
title_full Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years
title_fullStr Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years
title_full_unstemmed Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years
title_sort Global extinction events and persistent age-dependency in sharks and rays over the past 145 million years
author_id_str_mv 7dd222e2a1d5971b3f3963f0501a9d4f
author_id_fullname_str_mv 7dd222e2a1d5971b3f3963f0501a9d4f_***_Catalina Pimiento
author Catalina Pimiento
author2 Kristína Kocáková
Daniele Silvestro
Gregor Hans Mathes
Jaime Andres Villafaña
Catalina Pimiento
format Journal article
container_title Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
container_volume 292
container_issue 2061
container_start_page 20252272
publishDate 2025
institution Swansea University
issn 1471-2954
doi_str_mv 10.1098/rspb.2025.2272
publisher The Royal Society
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Understanding extinction mechanisms, including what traits make some species more vulnerable than others, is key in a changing world. It has been proposed that species’ age predicts extinction risk. However, our understanding of age-dependent extinction (ADE) remains unresolved, with positive and negative trends being modelled only as mutually exclusive, and rarely across clade-specific diversification trajectories. Here, we reconstruct the global diversification trajectory of neoselachians (modern sharks and rays) over the past 145 Myr to assess ADE using a new model that allows positive and negative trends to co-occur. We recovered a dynamic diversification trajectory, including four previously undetected extinction events, the most significant in the Eocene–Oligocene. Negative ADE was consistently found over time, with young species, especially those younger than 4 Myr, being more vulnerable. Our results suggest that neoselachians have been more susceptible to extinction than previously recognized, with age being a consistent intrinsic predictor of their vulnerability through deep time.
published_date 2025-12-17T05:34:15Z
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