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A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour

Claire M. Belcher Orcid Logo, Rayanne Vitali, Tadas Nikonovas, Kerryn Little Orcid Logo, Andrew Elliott, Sarah J. Baker, Alastair J. Crawford Orcid Logo, Stefan Doerr Orcid Logo, Nicholas Kettridge Orcid Logo, Gareth D. Clay

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Volume: 34, Issue: 8, Start page: WF24123

Swansea University Authors: Tadas Nikonovas, Stefan Doerr Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1071/wf24123

Abstract

Background. Fires in temperate dry heaths burn dead and live fuels and are increasing in frequency. Models that describe these fuels and their contribution to fire behaviour is becoming of greater importance. Aims. We sought to identify variations in fuel moisture and flammability in dry heath fuel...

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Published in: International Journal of Wildland Fire
ISSN: 1049-8001 1448-5516
Published: CSIRO Publishing 2025
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa70819
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Models that describe these fuels and their contribution to fire behaviour is becoming of greater importance. Aims. We sought to identify variations in fuel moisture and flammability in dry heath fuel types throughout the year and assess the strength of phenological shifts to influence predicted fire behaviour. Methods. Six plant species from three dry heaths in the United Kingdom (UK) were collected throughout the year, their moisture content and effective heat of combustion measured. Data were used to parameterise a dynamic fuel model and undertake a sensitivity analysis using BehavePlus. Key results. Phenological changes in live fuel moisture had the greatest effect on predicted fire behaviour where variations between late winter&#x2013;early spring and late spring&#x2013;summer, led to a four-fold difference in fire rate of spread. Dead fuel moisture had an effect in the summer months but was dampened significantly by phenologically high live fuel moisture content. Conclusions. Phenological drivers of live fuel moisture in temperate shrubland fuels must be included in models that predict fire behaviour. Implications. 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spelling 2025-11-03T11:56:12.1113669 v2 70819 2025-11-03 A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour 940b37dbdcb6896884af0887808b089c Tadas Nikonovas Tadas Nikonovas true false 575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088 0000-0002-8700-9002 Stefan Doerr Stefan Doerr true false 2025-11-03 BGPS Background. Fires in temperate dry heaths burn dead and live fuels and are increasing in frequency. Models that describe these fuels and their contribution to fire behaviour is becoming of greater importance. Aims. We sought to identify variations in fuel moisture and flammability in dry heath fuel types throughout the year and assess the strength of phenological shifts to influence predicted fire behaviour. Methods. Six plant species from three dry heaths in the United Kingdom (UK) were collected throughout the year, their moisture content and effective heat of combustion measured. Data were used to parameterise a dynamic fuel model and undertake a sensitivity analysis using BehavePlus. Key results. Phenological changes in live fuel moisture had the greatest effect on predicted fire behaviour where variations between late winter–early spring and late spring–summer, led to a four-fold difference in fire rate of spread. Dead fuel moisture had an effect in the summer months but was dampened significantly by phenologically high live fuel moisture content. Conclusions. Phenological drivers of live fuel moisture in temperate shrubland fuels must be included in models that predict fire behaviour. Implications. Using the data presented, models such as BehavePlus can be adapted to include this variability to predict fire behaviour in temperate heathland ecosystems. Journal Article International Journal of Wildland Fire 34 8 WF24123 CSIRO Publishing 1049-8001 1448-5516 fire behaviour, fire ecology, flammability, fuel moisture, heathlands, heat content, heat of combustion, shrub fuels 1 8 2025 2025-08-01 10.1071/wf24123 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee This work has been funded by NERC grant NE/T003553/1 ‘Towards a UK Fire Danger Rating System’. 2025-11-03T11:56:12.1113669 2025-11-03T11:48:58.0781421 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Claire M. Belcher 0000-0003-3496-8290 1 Rayanne Vitali 2 Tadas Nikonovas 3 Kerryn Little 0000-0002-8303-5297 4 Andrew Elliott 5 Sarah J. Baker 6 Alastair J. Crawford 0000-0002-2133-2886 7 Stefan Doerr 0000-0002-8700-9002 8 Nicholas Kettridge 0000-0003-3995-0305 9 Gareth D. Clay 10 70819__35541__ad76e1b10f6a4f31911b083fe056b355.pdf 70819.VOR.pdf 2025-11-03T11:53:13.4435341 Output 2693771 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2025 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour
spellingShingle A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour
Tadas Nikonovas
Stefan Doerr
title_short A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour
title_full A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour
title_fullStr A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour
title_full_unstemmed A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour
title_sort A flammability phenology for dry mixed heaths and its implications for modelling fire behaviour
author_id_str_mv 940b37dbdcb6896884af0887808b089c
575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088
author_id_fullname_str_mv 940b37dbdcb6896884af0887808b089c_***_Tadas Nikonovas
575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088_***_Stefan Doerr
author Tadas Nikonovas
Stefan Doerr
author2 Claire M. Belcher
Rayanne Vitali
Tadas Nikonovas
Kerryn Little
Andrew Elliott
Sarah J. Baker
Alastair J. Crawford
Stefan Doerr
Nicholas Kettridge
Gareth D. Clay
format Journal article
container_title International Journal of Wildland Fire
container_volume 34
container_issue 8
container_start_page WF24123
publishDate 2025
institution Swansea University
issn 1049-8001
1448-5516
doi_str_mv 10.1071/wf24123
publisher CSIRO Publishing
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Background. Fires in temperate dry heaths burn dead and live fuels and are increasing in frequency. Models that describe these fuels and their contribution to fire behaviour is becoming of greater importance. Aims. We sought to identify variations in fuel moisture and flammability in dry heath fuel types throughout the year and assess the strength of phenological shifts to influence predicted fire behaviour. Methods. Six plant species from three dry heaths in the United Kingdom (UK) were collected throughout the year, their moisture content and effective heat of combustion measured. Data were used to parameterise a dynamic fuel model and undertake a sensitivity analysis using BehavePlus. Key results. Phenological changes in live fuel moisture had the greatest effect on predicted fire behaviour where variations between late winter–early spring and late spring–summer, led to a four-fold difference in fire rate of spread. Dead fuel moisture had an effect in the summer months but was dampened significantly by phenologically high live fuel moisture content. Conclusions. Phenological drivers of live fuel moisture in temperate shrubland fuels must be included in models that predict fire behaviour. Implications. Using the data presented, models such as BehavePlus can be adapted to include this variability to predict fire behaviour in temperate heathland ecosystems.
published_date 2025-08-01T12:45:48Z
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score 11.088929

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