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Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK

GABRIELLA SANTIAGO, Carla White, Brendan Collins Orcid Logo, Simon Cottrell Orcid Logo, Chris Williams Orcid Logo, Biagio Lucini Orcid Logo, Michael Gravenor Orcid Logo

Epidemics, Volume: 53, Start page: 100860

Swansea University Authors: GABRIELLA SANTIAGO, Carla White, Biagio Lucini Orcid Logo, Michael Gravenor Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100860

Abstract

Introduction: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a single-stranded RNA virus and a major cause of hospitalisations in paediatric and geriatric populations. In the Northern Hemisphere, the RSV season is typically between October and March. Following the introduction of Non-pharmaceutical Interventi...

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Published in: Epidemics
ISSN: 1755-4365 1878-0067
Published: Elsevier BV 2025
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa70803
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Approximately, 90% of RSV admissions in Wales from 2016-22 were in infants under 1 year old; with the greatest shift in admissions age-structure in 2-4 year olds (quintupling in 2021). The model predicted a rapid return to pre-pandemic patterns after disruptions. Discussion/Conclusions: Out-of-season peaks chiefly coincided with NPI relaxation. The post-pandemic response of RSV, in terms of timings, magnitude and age-structure shift, were all broadly consistent with simple interruptions in population exposure during the pandemic and the build up of immune na&#xEF;ve cohorts. 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spelling 2025-11-19T12:06:32.5587654 v2 70803 2025-10-31 Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK 402b2619fa87319f354717bb5f8dd072 GABRIELLA SANTIAGO GABRIELLA SANTIAGO true false 10ad33360d095c9ac6bb4889fd086213 Carla White Carla White true false 7e6fcfe060e07a351090e2a8aba363cf 0000-0001-8974-8266 Biagio Lucini Biagio Lucini true false 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6 0000-0003-0710-0947 Michael Gravenor Michael Gravenor true false 2025-10-31 Introduction: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a single-stranded RNA virus and a major cause of hospitalisations in paediatric and geriatric populations. In the Northern Hemisphere, the RSV season is typically between October and March. Following the introduction of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions in seasonality have been observed. Methods: We used an age-structured, deterministic SE2I2R model with time-dependent contact rates to study RSV hospitalisations and seasonality in the context of specific NPIs in Wales. The transmission process was linked to a clinical events model, to allow comparison to paediatric admissions data from Public Health Wales. The model was calibrated using Welsh demographics, social contact surveys and a severity index of Welsh NPI impact. Results: Admissions data revealed three out-of-season outbreaks (Autumn 2020, Autumn 2021 and Summer 2022). A surge of admissions in Winter 2022-23 and Winter 2023-24 were forecasted, with peak timings correctly predicted, despite a more protracted outbreak observed in the data. Approximately, 90% of RSV admissions in Wales from 2016-22 were in infants under 1 year old; with the greatest shift in admissions age-structure in 2-4 year olds (quintupling in 2021). The model predicted a rapid return to pre-pandemic patterns after disruptions. Discussion/Conclusions: Out-of-season peaks chiefly coincided with NPI relaxation. The post-pandemic response of RSV, in terms of timings, magnitude and age-structure shift, were all broadly consistent with simple interruptions in population exposure during the pandemic and the build up of immune naïve cohorts. Our model forms the basis of medium-term projections for paediatric RSV admissions in Wales. Journal Article Epidemics 53 100860 Elsevier BV 1755-4365 1878-0067 Respiratory Syncytial Virus; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Paediatric; Seasonality; Bronchiolitis; Wales 1 12 2025 2025-12-01 10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100860 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University Other We would also like to thank the Welsh Government and Swansea University for funding GS’s studentship (TAC-PHD-21/22-01 and MAR1059-100). 2025-11-19T12:06:32.5587654 2025-10-31T12:46:52.0715734 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science GABRIELLA SANTIAGO 1 Carla White 2 Brendan Collins 0000-0002-3023-8189 3 Simon Cottrell 0000-0003-0645-2764 4 Chris Williams 0000-0002-5092-4987 5 Biagio Lucini 0000-0001-8974-8266 6 Michael Gravenor 0000-0003-0710-0947 7 70803__35662__bf3058dda3964738aca8fa4021a9ee23.pdf 70803.VoR.pdf 2025-11-19T12:03:57.4037894 Output 1427199 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2025 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
title Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK
spellingShingle Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK
GABRIELLA SANTIAGO
Carla White
Biagio Lucini
Michael Gravenor
title_short Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK
title_full Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK
title_fullStr Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK
title_full_unstemmed Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK
title_sort Investigating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on post-pandemic Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) hospitalisations and seasonality in Wales, UK
author_id_str_mv 402b2619fa87319f354717bb5f8dd072
10ad33360d095c9ac6bb4889fd086213
7e6fcfe060e07a351090e2a8aba363cf
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author_id_fullname_str_mv 402b2619fa87319f354717bb5f8dd072_***_GABRIELLA SANTIAGO
10ad33360d095c9ac6bb4889fd086213_***_Carla White
7e6fcfe060e07a351090e2a8aba363cf_***_Biagio Lucini
70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6_***_Michael Gravenor
author GABRIELLA SANTIAGO
Carla White
Biagio Lucini
Michael Gravenor
author2 GABRIELLA SANTIAGO
Carla White
Brendan Collins
Simon Cottrell
Chris Williams
Biagio Lucini
Michael Gravenor
format Journal article
container_title Epidemics
container_volume 53
container_start_page 100860
publishDate 2025
institution Swansea University
issn 1755-4365
1878-0067
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100860
publisher Elsevier BV
college_str Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
department_str Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences{{{_:::_}}}Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Introduction: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a single-stranded RNA virus and a major cause of hospitalisations in paediatric and geriatric populations. In the Northern Hemisphere, the RSV season is typically between October and March. Following the introduction of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions in seasonality have been observed. Methods: We used an age-structured, deterministic SE2I2R model with time-dependent contact rates to study RSV hospitalisations and seasonality in the context of specific NPIs in Wales. The transmission process was linked to a clinical events model, to allow comparison to paediatric admissions data from Public Health Wales. The model was calibrated using Welsh demographics, social contact surveys and a severity index of Welsh NPI impact. Results: Admissions data revealed three out-of-season outbreaks (Autumn 2020, Autumn 2021 and Summer 2022). A surge of admissions in Winter 2022-23 and Winter 2023-24 were forecasted, with peak timings correctly predicted, despite a more protracted outbreak observed in the data. Approximately, 90% of RSV admissions in Wales from 2016-22 were in infants under 1 year old; with the greatest shift in admissions age-structure in 2-4 year olds (quintupling in 2021). The model predicted a rapid return to pre-pandemic patterns after disruptions. Discussion/Conclusions: Out-of-season peaks chiefly coincided with NPI relaxation. The post-pandemic response of RSV, in terms of timings, magnitude and age-structure shift, were all broadly consistent with simple interruptions in population exposure during the pandemic and the build up of immune naïve cohorts. Our model forms the basis of medium-term projections for paediatric RSV admissions in Wales.
published_date 2025-12-01T05:31:44Z
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