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Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates

Christian T. Wild Orcid Logo, Samuel B. Kachuck Orcid Logo, Adrian Luckman Orcid Logo, Karen E. Alley Orcid Logo, Meghan A. Sharp Orcid Logo, Haylee Smith Orcid Logo, Scott W. Tyler Orcid Logo, Christopher Kratt Orcid Logo, Tiago S. Dotto Orcid Logo, Daniel Price Orcid Logo, Keith W. Nicholls Orcid Logo, Suzanne Bevan Orcid Logo, Gabriela Collao-Barrios Orcid Logo, Atsuhiro Muto Orcid Logo, Martin Truffer Orcid Logo, Ted A. Scambos Orcid Logo, Karen J. Heywood Orcid Logo, Erin C. Pettit Orcid Logo, (the TARSAN team)

Journal of Glaciology, Volume: 70, Pages: 1 - 18

Swansea University Authors: Adrian Luckman Orcid Logo, Suzanne Bevan Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1017/jog.2024.64

Abstract

Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has...

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Published in: Journal of Glaciology
ISSN: 0022-1430 1727-5652
Published: Cambridge University Press (CUP) 2024
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa68271
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Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d&#x2212;1 in 2019 to 2.85 m d&#x2212;1 by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice&#x2013;ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. 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spelling 2025-01-15T13:03:37.7993334 v2 68271 2024-11-14 Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates 008cb668b2671b653a88677f075799a9 0000-0002-9618-5905 Adrian Luckman Adrian Luckman true false 758d19253522c8c306d4eea0e6e484f6 0000-0003-2649-2982 Suzanne Bevan Suzanne Bevan true false 2024-11-14 BGPS Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d−1 in 2019 to 2.85 m d−1 by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt. Journal Article Journal of Glaciology 70 1 18 Cambridge University Press (CUP) 0022-1430 1727-5652 Antarctic glaciology; crevasses; ice/ocean interactions; ice-shelf break-up; melt – basal 19 9 2024 2024-09-19 10.1017/jog.2024.64 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee Support is received from National Science Foundation (NSF: grant 1929991) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC: grant NE/S006419/1). 2025-01-15T13:03:37.7993334 2024-11-14T16:28:35.7422418 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Christian T. Wild 0000-0003-4586-1704 1 Samuel B. Kachuck 0000-0002-8708-8425 2 Adrian Luckman 0000-0002-9618-5905 3 Karen E. Alley 0000-0003-0358-3806 4 Meghan A. Sharp 0000-0002-9015-8199 5 Haylee Smith 0009-0003-9976-3111 6 Scott W. Tyler 0000-0002-0477-5351 7 Christopher Kratt 0009-0003-9191-769x 8 Tiago S. Dotto 0000-0003-0565-6941 9 Daniel Price 0000-0001-6003-0920 10 Keith W. Nicholls 0000-0002-2188-4509 11 Suzanne Bevan 0000-0003-2649-2982 12 Gabriela Collao-Barrios 0000-0003-3186-3290 13 Atsuhiro Muto 0000-0002-1722-2457 14 Martin Truffer 0000-0001-8251-7043 15 Ted A. Scambos 0000-0003-4268-6322 16 Karen J. Heywood 0000-0001-9859-0026 17 Erin C. Pettit 0000-0002-6765-9841 18 (the TARSAN team) 19 68271__33337__9f089c4e0c2b45de84667235cca51958.pdf 68271.VoR.pdf 2025-01-15T13:01:44.4323443 Output 13043182 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s), 2024. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
spellingShingle Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
Adrian Luckman
Suzanne Bevan
title_short Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_full Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_fullStr Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_full_unstemmed Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
title_sort Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates
author_id_str_mv 008cb668b2671b653a88677f075799a9
758d19253522c8c306d4eea0e6e484f6
author_id_fullname_str_mv 008cb668b2671b653a88677f075799a9_***_Adrian Luckman
758d19253522c8c306d4eea0e6e484f6_***_Suzanne Bevan
author Adrian Luckman
Suzanne Bevan
author2 Christian T. Wild
Samuel B. Kachuck
Adrian Luckman
Karen E. Alley
Meghan A. Sharp
Haylee Smith
Scott W. Tyler
Christopher Kratt
Tiago S. Dotto
Daniel Price
Keith W. Nicholls
Suzanne Bevan
Gabriela Collao-Barrios
Atsuhiro Muto
Martin Truffer
Ted A. Scambos
Karen J. Heywood
Erin C. Pettit
(the TARSAN team)
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Glaciology
container_volume 70
container_start_page 1
publishDate 2024
institution Swansea University
issn 0022-1430
1727-5652
doi_str_mv 10.1017/jog.2024.64
publisher Cambridge University Press (CUP)
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d−1 in 2019 to 2.85 m d−1 by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt.
published_date 2024-09-19T06:00:06Z
_version_ 1821474665232596992
score 11.0583515

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