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Emergency admission predictive risk stratification models: assessment of implementation consequences (PRISMATIC 2): protocol for a mixed methods study.

Mark Kingston Orcid Logo, Helen Snooks Orcid Logo, Alan Watkins Orcid Logo, Christopher Burton, Jeremy Dale, Jan Davies, Alex Dearden, Bridie Evans Orcid Logo, Barbara Gomes, Jenna Jones, Rashmi Kumar, Alison Porter Orcid Logo, Berni Sewell, Emma Wallace Orcid Logo

BJGP Open, Start page: BJGPO.2024.0182

Swansea University Authors: Mark Kingston Orcid Logo, Helen Snooks Orcid Logo, Alan Watkins Orcid Logo, Alex Dearden, Bridie Evans Orcid Logo, Barbara Gomes, Jenna Jones, Alison Porter Orcid Logo, Berni Sewell

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Abstract

Emergency admissions are costly, increasingly numerous, and associated with adverse patient outcomes. Policy responses have included the widespread introduction of emergency admission risk stratification (EARS) tools in primary care. These tools generate scores that predict patients' risk of em...

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Published in: BJGP Open
ISSN: 2398-3795
Published: 2024
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa67870
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Abstract: Emergency admissions are costly, increasingly numerous, and associated with adverse patient outcomes. Policy responses have included the widespread introduction of emergency admission risk stratification (EARS) tools in primary care. These tools generate scores that predict patients' risk of emergency hospital admission and can be used to support targeted approaches to improve care and reduce admissions. However, the impact of EARS is poorly understood and there may be unintended consequences. To assess effects, mechanisms, costs, and patient and healthcare professionals' views related to the introduction of EARS tools in England. Quasi-experimental mixed methods design using anonymised routine data and qualitative methods. We will apply multiple interrupted time series analysis to data, aggregated at former Clinical Commissioning Group level, to look at changes in emergency admission and other healthcare use following EARS introduction across England. We will investigate GP decision-making at practice level using linked general practice and secondary care data to compare case-mix, demographics, indicators of condition severity and frailty associated with emergency admissions before and after EARS introduction. We will undertake interviews ( ~48) with GPs and healthcare staff to understand how patient care may have changed. We will conduct focus groups ( =2) and interviews ( ~16) with patients to explore how they perceive that communication of individual risk scores might affect their experiences and health seeking behaviours. Findings will provide policymakers, healthcare professionals, and patients, with a better understanding of the effects, costs and stakeholder perspectives related to the introduction of EARS tools. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2024, The Authors.]
Keywords: Primary health care, health services research, emergency health services, risk stratification, clinical prediction rule, chronic disease
College: Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
Funders: This study is funded by the NIHR HS&DR programme, project number 150717. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. The funding application was supported by infrastructure funding from PRIME Centre Wales http://www.primecentre.wales/.
Start Page: BJGPO.2024.0182