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Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions

Tadas Nikonovas, Cristina Santin Nuno, Claire M. Belcher, Gareth D. Clay, Nicholas Kettridge, Thomas E. L. Smith, Stefan Doerr Orcid Logo

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Volume: 33, Issue: 10

Swansea University Authors: Tadas Nikonovas, Cristina Santin Nuno, Stefan Doerr Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1071/wf23205

Abstract

BackgroundFire activity in the UK and comparable regions of northwest Europe is generally out of phase with peak fire weather conditions.AimsHere, we assess the potential effect of phenology on fire occurrence patterns for the UK.MethodsWe examined fire occurrence and vegetation phenology in the UK...

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Published in: International Journal of Wildland Fire
ISSN: 1049-8001 1448-5516
Published: CSIRO Publishing 2024
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa67600
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During the high-greenness phase in late spring and summer, fire activity is reduced by a factor of 5–6 despite typically elevated fire weather conditions within that period.Conclusions and implicationsSemi-natural vegetation in the UK is very resistant to burning during the high-greenness phase. However, this ‘fire barrier’ is diminished during severe drought episodes, which are predicted to become more extreme in the coming decades. 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L.</firstname><surname>Smith</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>Stefan</firstname><surname>Doerr</surname><orcid>0000-0002-8700-9002</orcid><order>7</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>67600__31518__d0c48286bb184225b54736fb19c527ba.pdf</filename><originalFilename>67600.VoR.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2024-10-02T13:31:58.4840448</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>3374539</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>© 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY).</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language><licence>https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling v2 67600 2024-09-06 Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions 940b37dbdcb6896884af0887808b089c Tadas Nikonovas Tadas Nikonovas true false 993c82cbaf875c1268156360e83c4dfd Cristina Santin Nuno Cristina Santin Nuno true false 575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088 0000-0002-8700-9002 Stefan Doerr Stefan Doerr true false 2024-09-06 BGPS BackgroundFire activity in the UK and comparable regions of northwest Europe is generally out of phase with peak fire weather conditions.AimsHere, we assess the potential effect of phenology on fire occurrence patterns for the UK.MethodsWe examined fire occurrence and vegetation phenology in the UK for 2012–2023, mapped onto the main fire-affected vegetation cover types within distinct precipitation regions, allowing the fire occurrence for fuels in different phenological phases to be explored across distinct ‘fuel’ types and regions.Key resultsThe UK’s fire regime is characterised by burning in semi-natural grasslands and evergreen dwarf shrub ecosystems in early spring when vegetation is still dormant. During the high-greenness phase in late spring and summer, fire activity is reduced by a factor of 5–6 despite typically elevated fire weather conditions within that period.Conclusions and implicationsSemi-natural vegetation in the UK is very resistant to burning during the high-greenness phase. However, this ‘fire barrier’ is diminished during severe drought episodes, which are predicted to become more extreme in the coming decades. Incorporating phenology information into models therefore has great potential for improving future fire danger and behaviour predictions in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions. Journal Article International Journal of Wildland Fire 33 10 CSIRO Publishing 1049-8001 1448-5516 active fire detections, flammability, humid temperate regions, land cover, phenology, Suomi-NPP, vegetation fuels, VIIRS, wildfire regimes 25 9 2024 2024-09-25 10.1071/wf23205 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University External research funder(s) paid the OA fee (includes OA grants disbursed by the Library) This study was supported by NERC grant UK-FDRS ‘Toward a UK fire danger rating system: understanding fuels, fire behaviour and impacts’ (NE/T003553/1) and the EC project FirEUrisk, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101003890. 2024-10-02T13:33:55.7936620 2024-09-06T10:04:33.0509411 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Tadas Nikonovas 1 Cristina Santin Nuno 2 Claire M. Belcher 3 Gareth D. Clay 4 Nicholas Kettridge 5 Thomas E. L. Smith 6 Stefan Doerr 0000-0002-8700-9002 7 67600__31518__d0c48286bb184225b54736fb19c527ba.pdf 67600.VoR.pdf 2024-10-02T13:31:58.4840448 Output 3374539 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2024 The Author(s) (or their employer(s)). This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions
spellingShingle Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions
Tadas Nikonovas
Cristina Santin Nuno
Stefan Doerr
title_short Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions
title_full Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions
title_fullStr Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions
title_full_unstemmed Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions
title_sort Vegetation phenology as a key driver for fire occurrence in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions
author_id_str_mv 940b37dbdcb6896884af0887808b089c
993c82cbaf875c1268156360e83c4dfd
575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088
author_id_fullname_str_mv 940b37dbdcb6896884af0887808b089c_***_Tadas Nikonovas
993c82cbaf875c1268156360e83c4dfd_***_Cristina Santin Nuno
575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088_***_Stefan Doerr
author Tadas Nikonovas
Cristina Santin Nuno
Stefan Doerr
author2 Tadas Nikonovas
Cristina Santin Nuno
Claire M. Belcher
Gareth D. Clay
Nicholas Kettridge
Thomas E. L. Smith
Stefan Doerr
format Journal article
container_title International Journal of Wildland Fire
container_volume 33
container_issue 10
publishDate 2024
institution Swansea University
issn 1049-8001
1448-5516
doi_str_mv 10.1071/wf23205
publisher CSIRO Publishing
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
document_store_str 1
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description BackgroundFire activity in the UK and comparable regions of northwest Europe is generally out of phase with peak fire weather conditions.AimsHere, we assess the potential effect of phenology on fire occurrence patterns for the UK.MethodsWe examined fire occurrence and vegetation phenology in the UK for 2012–2023, mapped onto the main fire-affected vegetation cover types within distinct precipitation regions, allowing the fire occurrence for fuels in different phenological phases to be explored across distinct ‘fuel’ types and regions.Key resultsThe UK’s fire regime is characterised by burning in semi-natural grasslands and evergreen dwarf shrub ecosystems in early spring when vegetation is still dormant. During the high-greenness phase in late spring and summer, fire activity is reduced by a factor of 5–6 despite typically elevated fire weather conditions within that period.Conclusions and implicationsSemi-natural vegetation in the UK is very resistant to burning during the high-greenness phase. However, this ‘fire barrier’ is diminished during severe drought episodes, which are predicted to become more extreme in the coming decades. Incorporating phenology information into models therefore has great potential for improving future fire danger and behaviour predictions in the UK and comparable humid temperate regions.
published_date 2024-09-25T13:33:55Z
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