Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies

Agboola, Emmanuel; Chowdhury, Rosen; Yang, Bo

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106665

Journal article 278 views 53 downloads

Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies

Emmanuel Agboola, Rosen Chowdhury

, Bo Yang

Economic Modelling, Volume: 132, Start page: 106665

Swansea University Authors: Rosen Chowdhury , Bo Yang

PDF | Version of Record

©2024The Author(s). This is an open access article under the CC BY license.
Download (2.09MB)

Check full text

DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106665

Abstract

How do oil price fluctuations affect economic activity and policy in the context of oil-exporting emerging economies? Past research suggests that the output responses to oil price innovations are asymmetric in nature but does not directly test the asymmetry in the government expenditure adjustments...

Full description

Published in:	Economic Modelling
ISSN:	0264-9993
Published:	Elsevier BV 2024
Online Access:	Check full text
URI:	https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa65537
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

first_indexed	2024-01-31T01:46:36Z
last_indexed	2024-01-31T01:46:36Z
id	cronfa65537
recordtype	SURis
fullrecord	<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><rfc1807 xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema"><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>65537</id><entry>2024-01-30</entry><title>Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b</sid><ORCID>0000-0003-1796-9603</ORCID><firstname>Rosen</firstname><surname>Chowdhury</surname><name>Rosen Chowdhury</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author><author><sid>d8e17e56a3b9484ba22c3d43807c83bd</sid><ORCID>0000-0001-5834-6002</ORCID><firstname>Bo</firstname><surname>Yang</surname><name>Bo Yang</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2024-01-30</date><deptcode>ECON</deptcode><abstract>How do oil price fluctuations affect economic activity and policy in the context of oil-exporting emerging economies? Past research suggests that the output responses to oil price innovations are asymmetric in nature but does not directly test the asymmetry in the government expenditure adjustments triggered by the shock. Moreover, many studies quantifying these asymmetric responses are fraught with methodological concerns. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of such asymmetries by studying how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks. Our estimation, employing unbiased methodologies, allows us to be agnostic regarding asymmetries in the responses depending on the direction and size of the shock. Using data for a diverse group of emerging economies, we find substantial evidence for the presence of asymmetries. Country-specific factors and/or fiscal stabilization incentives are possible explanations for the asymmetric responses. We draw policy recommendations for understanding the growth process specific to resource-rich emerging economies.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Economic Modelling</journal><volume>132</volume><journalNumber/><paginationStart>106665</paginationStart><paginationEnd/><publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>0264-9993</issnPrint><issnElectronic/><keywords>Asymmetries; Oil price shocks; Censored-regressor nonlinear models; Emerging economies</keywords><publishedDay>1</publishedDay><publishedMonth>3</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2024</publishedYear><publishedDate>2024-03-01</publishedDate><doi>10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106665</doi><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Economics</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>ECON</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm>SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal)</apcterm><funders/><projectreference/><lastEdited>2024-03-04T15:09:57.3822377</lastEdited><Created>2024-01-30T05:54:25.1038050</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences</level><level id="2">School of Social Sciences - Economics</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Emmanuel</firstname><surname>Agboola</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Rosen</firstname><surname>Chowdhury</surname><orcid>0000-0003-1796-9603</orcid><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Bo</firstname><surname>Yang</surname><orcid>0000-0001-5834-6002</orcid><order>3</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>65537__29619__13398ed97a1847ffbe91fb821bb1ae43.pdf</filename><originalFilename>65537_VoR.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2024-03-04T15:08:21.5320945</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>2190028</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>©2024The Author(s). This is an open access article under the CC BY license.</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language><licence>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling	v2 65537 2024-01-30 Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies 6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b 0000-0003-1796-9603 Rosen Chowdhury Rosen Chowdhury true false d8e17e56a3b9484ba22c3d43807c83bd 0000-0001-5834-6002 Bo Yang Bo Yang true false 2024-01-30 ECON How do oil price fluctuations affect economic activity and policy in the context of oil-exporting emerging economies? Past research suggests that the output responses to oil price innovations are asymmetric in nature but does not directly test the asymmetry in the government expenditure adjustments triggered by the shock. Moreover, many studies quantifying these asymmetric responses are fraught with methodological concerns. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of such asymmetries by studying how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks. Our estimation, employing unbiased methodologies, allows us to be agnostic regarding asymmetries in the responses depending on the direction and size of the shock. Using data for a diverse group of emerging economies, we find substantial evidence for the presence of asymmetries. Country-specific factors and/or fiscal stabilization incentives are possible explanations for the asymmetric responses. We draw policy recommendations for understanding the growth process specific to resource-rich emerging economies. Journal Article Economic Modelling 132 106665 Elsevier BV 0264-9993 Asymmetries; Oil price shocks; Censored-regressor nonlinear models; Emerging economies 1 3 2024 2024-03-01 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106665 COLLEGE NANME Economics COLLEGE CODE ECON Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) 2024-03-04T15:09:57.3822377 2024-01-30T05:54:25.1038050 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Social Sciences - Economics Emmanuel Agboola 1 Rosen Chowdhury 0000-0003-1796-9603 2 Bo Yang 0000-0001-5834-6002 3 65537__29619__13398ed97a1847ffbe91fb821bb1ae43.pdf 65537_VoR.pdf 2024-03-04T15:08:21.5320945 Output 2190028 application/pdf Version of Record true ©2024The Author(s). This is an open access article under the CC BY license. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title	Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies
spellingShingle	Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies Rosen Chowdhury Bo Yang
title_short	Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies
title_full	Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies
title_fullStr	Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies
title_full_unstemmed	Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies
title_sort	Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies
author_id_str_mv	6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b d8e17e56a3b9484ba22c3d43807c83bd
author_id_fullname_str_mv	6f0a211cd0023a2a351371189c33ae4b_*_Rosen Chowdhury d8e17e56a3b9484ba22c3d43807c83bd_*_Bo Yang
author	Rosen Chowdhury Bo Yang
author2	Emmanuel Agboola Rosen Chowdhury Bo Yang
format	Journal article
container_title	Economic Modelling
container_volume	132
container_start_page	106665
publishDate	2024
institution	Swansea University
issn	0264-9993
doi_str_mv	10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106665
publisher	Elsevier BV
college_str	Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id	facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title	Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id	facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title	Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str	School of Social Sciences - Economics{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Social Sciences - Economics
document_store_str	1
active_str	0
description	How do oil price fluctuations affect economic activity and policy in the context of oil-exporting emerging economies? Past research suggests that the output responses to oil price innovations are asymmetric in nature but does not directly test the asymmetry in the government expenditure adjustments triggered by the shock. Moreover, many studies quantifying these asymmetric responses are fraught with methodological concerns. This paper assesses the empirical relevance of such asymmetries by studying how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks. Our estimation, employing unbiased methodologies, allows us to be agnostic regarding asymmetries in the responses depending on the direction and size of the shock. Using data for a diverse group of emerging economies, we find substantial evidence for the presence of asymmetries. Country-specific factors and/or fiscal stabilization incentives are possible explanations for the asymmetric responses. We draw policy recommendations for understanding the growth process specific to resource-rich emerging economies.
published_date	2024-03-01T15:09:53Z
_version_	1792608822622158848
score	11.037603

Oil price fluctuations and their impact on oil-exporting emerging economies

Similar Items