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Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error / JACK TUDOR

Swansea University Author: JACK TUDOR

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DOI (Published version): 10.23889/SUthesis.64642

Abstract

A puzzle exists at the heart of pre-election polling. Despite continual methodological improvement and repeated attempts to identify and correct issues laid bare by misprediction, average polling accuracy has not notably improved since the conclusion of the Second World War. In this thesis, I conten...

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Published: Swansea, Wales, UK 2023
Institution: Swansea University
Degree level: Doctoral
Degree name: Ph.D
Supervisor: Wall, Matthew and Fahey, Kevin
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64642
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spelling v2 64642 2023-10-02 Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error 5edd6f76866605a2ff6d6c21bfda83ce JACK TUDOR JACK TUDOR true false 2023-10-02 A puzzle exists at the heart of pre-election polling. Despite continual methodological improvement and repeated attempts to identify and correct issues laid bare by misprediction, average polling accuracy has not notably improved since the conclusion of the Second World War. In this thesis, I contend that this is the result of a poll-level focus within the study of polling error that is both incommensurate with its evolution over time and the nature of the elections that polls seek to predict. I hold that differences between elections stand as a plausible source of polling error and situate them within a novel four-level model of sources of polling error. By establishing the heterogenous nature of elections as phenomena and its expected impact on polling error, I propose a new election-level ontology through which the inaccuracy of polls can be understood. I test the empirical validity of this new ontology by using a novel multi-level model to analyse error across the most expansive polling dataset assembled to date, encompassing 11,832 in-campaign polls conducted in 497 elections across 83 countries, finding that membership within different elections meaningfully impacts polling error variation. With the empirical validity of my proposed ontology established, I engage in an exploratory analysis of its benefits, finding electoral characteristics to be useful in the prediction of polling error. Ultimately, I conclude that the adoption of a new, multi-level ontology of polling error centred on the importance of electoral heterogeneity not only offers a more comprehensive theoretical account of its sources than current understandings, but is also more specifically tailored to the reality of pre-election polling than existing alternatives. I also contend that it offers pronounced practical benefits, illuminating those circumstances in which polling error is likely to vary. E-Thesis Swansea, Wales, UK Polling error, elections, multi-level modelling 2 10 2023 2023-10-02 10.23889/SUthesis.64642 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University Wall, Matthew and Fahey, Kevin Doctoral Ph.D Swansea University Research Excellence Scholarship (SURES) 2024-02-29T11:28:49.4719171 2023-10-02T11:25:09.3860319 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Social Sciences - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations JACK TUDOR 1 64642__28673__9b3bd34eff5c44a9a54e203fa8c4d23d.pdf 2023_Tudor_J.final.64642.pdf 2023-10-02T11:39:11.5567997 Output 5872993 application/pdf E-Thesis true Copyright: The Author, Jack Tudor, 2023. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
title Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error
spellingShingle Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error
JACK TUDOR
title_short Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error
title_full Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error
title_fullStr Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error
title_full_unstemmed Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error
title_sort Towards a New Ontology of Polling Inaccuracy: The Benefits of Conceiving of Elections as Heterogeneous Phenomena for the Study of Pre-election Polling Error
author_id_str_mv 5edd6f76866605a2ff6d6c21bfda83ce
author_id_fullname_str_mv 5edd6f76866605a2ff6d6c21bfda83ce_***_JACK TUDOR
author JACK TUDOR
author2 JACK TUDOR
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institution Swansea University
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hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Social Sciences - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Social Sciences - Politics, Philosophy and International Relations
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description A puzzle exists at the heart of pre-election polling. Despite continual methodological improvement and repeated attempts to identify and correct issues laid bare by misprediction, average polling accuracy has not notably improved since the conclusion of the Second World War. In this thesis, I contend that this is the result of a poll-level focus within the study of polling error that is both incommensurate with its evolution over time and the nature of the elections that polls seek to predict. I hold that differences between elections stand as a plausible source of polling error and situate them within a novel four-level model of sources of polling error. By establishing the heterogenous nature of elections as phenomena and its expected impact on polling error, I propose a new election-level ontology through which the inaccuracy of polls can be understood. I test the empirical validity of this new ontology by using a novel multi-level model to analyse error across the most expansive polling dataset assembled to date, encompassing 11,832 in-campaign polls conducted in 497 elections across 83 countries, finding that membership within different elections meaningfully impacts polling error variation. With the empirical validity of my proposed ontology established, I engage in an exploratory analysis of its benefits, finding electoral characteristics to be useful in the prediction of polling error. Ultimately, I conclude that the adoption of a new, multi-level ontology of polling error centred on the importance of electoral heterogeneity not only offers a more comprehensive theoretical account of its sources than current understandings, but is also more specifically tailored to the reality of pre-election polling than existing alternatives. I also contend that it offers pronounced practical benefits, illuminating those circumstances in which polling error is likely to vary.
published_date 2023-10-02T11:28:47Z
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