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Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats / LAWRENCE NEAL

Swansea University Author: LAWRENCE NEAL

Abstract

Lesser horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus hipposideros) are protected in the UK under the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981, having a threatened status. Habitat Suitability Models (HSM) offer a practical way to determine species-specific predictions on potential roost sites for bats, aiding in the protecti...

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Published: Swansea, Wales, UK 2023
Institution: Swansea University
Degree level: Master of Research
Degree name: MRes
Supervisor: Bull, J. and Harris, W.
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64627
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Fuller, Shewring &amp; Caryl (2018) present a novel HSM method for identifying roost sites for R. hipposideros in Wales, UK. This study aims to test the hypothesis that national-scale models are not appropriate for use in making accurate predictions at local levels, by recreating their HSM within Gower AONB, a region of Wales ~1% the size of the whole of Wales. The difference in environmental variables for two pseudo-absence methods (random and building) across Wales and Gower AONB were assessed, and the accuracy of both was investigated using known bat roost presences, provided by the Bat Conservation Trust. Additionally, a third ensemble model was assembled from both pseudo-absence methods and assessed. Sites within Gower AONB with high bat roost presence probability were then identified. This studies’ assessments generally supported the stated hypothesis, with Gower AONB having significantly different environmental structure to the whole of Wales, and despite predictive performance being ‘fair’ for both pseudo-absence methods (0.782 for building pseudo-absences and 0.787 for random pseudo-absences) and the ensemble model (0.700), accuracy was low throughout (known bat presences that should have probabilities of 1.00 instead had probabilities of 0.548 [building pseudo-absences, 0.57 [random pseudo-absences], and 0.571 [ensemble model]). Although Fuller, Shewring &amp; Caryl’s HSM have practical use in determining likely roost sites of R. hipposideros across Wales, their use across Gower AONB is diminished by the variable environment of the regions being investigated. These findings suggest that applying large-scale HSM’s to smaller-scale regions is not effective for identifying potential roost sites for R. hipposideros and may potentially serve as a cautionary case study for other species-specific HSM’s. However, given that the random pseudo-absence model had ‘fair’ predictive performance, and was able to correctly predict bat roost presences more than half the time, it was used to provide three sites within Gower AONB of highest probability. These three sites would be used to feed into R. hipposideros conservation by providing them to the Bat Conservation Trust for observation. 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spelling v2 64627 2023-09-27 Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats b57274ab00c0cf8ff5aaacea88ea79d9 LAWRENCE NEAL LAWRENCE NEAL true false 2023-09-27 Lesser horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus hipposideros) are protected in the UK under the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981, having a threatened status. Habitat Suitability Models (HSM) offer a practical way to determine species-specific predictions on potential roost sites for bats, aiding in the protection and conservation of threatened species. Fuller, Shewring & Caryl (2018) present a novel HSM method for identifying roost sites for R. hipposideros in Wales, UK. This study aims to test the hypothesis that national-scale models are not appropriate for use in making accurate predictions at local levels, by recreating their HSM within Gower AONB, a region of Wales ~1% the size of the whole of Wales. The difference in environmental variables for two pseudo-absence methods (random and building) across Wales and Gower AONB were assessed, and the accuracy of both was investigated using known bat roost presences, provided by the Bat Conservation Trust. Additionally, a third ensemble model was assembled from both pseudo-absence methods and assessed. Sites within Gower AONB with high bat roost presence probability were then identified. This studies’ assessments generally supported the stated hypothesis, with Gower AONB having significantly different environmental structure to the whole of Wales, and despite predictive performance being ‘fair’ for both pseudo-absence methods (0.782 for building pseudo-absences and 0.787 for random pseudo-absences) and the ensemble model (0.700), accuracy was low throughout (known bat presences that should have probabilities of 1.00 instead had probabilities of 0.548 [building pseudo-absences, 0.57 [random pseudo-absences], and 0.571 [ensemble model]). Although Fuller, Shewring & Caryl’s HSM have practical use in determining likely roost sites of R. hipposideros across Wales, their use across Gower AONB is diminished by the variable environment of the regions being investigated. These findings suggest that applying large-scale HSM’s to smaller-scale regions is not effective for identifying potential roost sites for R. hipposideros and may potentially serve as a cautionary case study for other species-specific HSM’s. However, given that the random pseudo-absence model had ‘fair’ predictive performance, and was able to correctly predict bat roost presences more than half the time, it was used to provide three sites within Gower AONB of highest probability. These three sites would be used to feed into R. hipposideros conservation by providing them to the Bat Conservation Trust for observation. Should these sites prove to include roost sites for R. hipposideros, it would suggest the uses of such HSM’s across smaller-scale regions still have some merit for other species with large-scale HSM’s available. E-Thesis Swansea, Wales, UK Rhinolophus hipposideros, Lesser Horseshoe Bat, Habitat Suitability Model, Recreation, Small-scale, Gower, Wales, UK 27 9 2023 2023-09-27 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University Bull, J. and Harris, W. Master of Research MRes 2023-09-27T13:02:58.0387249 2023-09-27T12:58:07.0635661 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences LAWRENCE NEAL 1 64627__28644__277a423a6881491d896917057571dba4.pdf 2023_Neal_LH.final.64627.pdf 2023-09-27T13:01:51.2881769 Output 1462276 application/pdf E-Thesis true Copyright: The Author, Lawrence H. Neal, 2023. true eng
title Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats
spellingShingle Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats
LAWRENCE NEAL
title_short Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats
title_full Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats
title_fullStr Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats
title_full_unstemmed Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats
title_sort Developing a Habitat Suitability Model for Welsh Lesser Horseshoe Bats
author_id_str_mv b57274ab00c0cf8ff5aaacea88ea79d9
author_id_fullname_str_mv b57274ab00c0cf8ff5aaacea88ea79d9_***_LAWRENCE NEAL
author LAWRENCE NEAL
author2 LAWRENCE NEAL
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institution Swansea University
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hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
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description Lesser horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus hipposideros) are protected in the UK under the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981, having a threatened status. Habitat Suitability Models (HSM) offer a practical way to determine species-specific predictions on potential roost sites for bats, aiding in the protection and conservation of threatened species. Fuller, Shewring & Caryl (2018) present a novel HSM method for identifying roost sites for R. hipposideros in Wales, UK. This study aims to test the hypothesis that national-scale models are not appropriate for use in making accurate predictions at local levels, by recreating their HSM within Gower AONB, a region of Wales ~1% the size of the whole of Wales. The difference in environmental variables for two pseudo-absence methods (random and building) across Wales and Gower AONB were assessed, and the accuracy of both was investigated using known bat roost presences, provided by the Bat Conservation Trust. Additionally, a third ensemble model was assembled from both pseudo-absence methods and assessed. Sites within Gower AONB with high bat roost presence probability were then identified. This studies’ assessments generally supported the stated hypothesis, with Gower AONB having significantly different environmental structure to the whole of Wales, and despite predictive performance being ‘fair’ for both pseudo-absence methods (0.782 for building pseudo-absences and 0.787 for random pseudo-absences) and the ensemble model (0.700), accuracy was low throughout (known bat presences that should have probabilities of 1.00 instead had probabilities of 0.548 [building pseudo-absences, 0.57 [random pseudo-absences], and 0.571 [ensemble model]). Although Fuller, Shewring & Caryl’s HSM have practical use in determining likely roost sites of R. hipposideros across Wales, their use across Gower AONB is diminished by the variable environment of the regions being investigated. These findings suggest that applying large-scale HSM’s to smaller-scale regions is not effective for identifying potential roost sites for R. hipposideros and may potentially serve as a cautionary case study for other species-specific HSM’s. However, given that the random pseudo-absence model had ‘fair’ predictive performance, and was able to correctly predict bat roost presences more than half the time, it was used to provide three sites within Gower AONB of highest probability. These three sites would be used to feed into R. hipposideros conservation by providing them to the Bat Conservation Trust for observation. Should these sites prove to include roost sites for R. hipposideros, it would suggest the uses of such HSM’s across smaller-scale regions still have some merit for other species with large-scale HSM’s available.
published_date 2023-09-27T13:03:22Z
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score 11.013082

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