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Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years

Jim Jordan Orcid Logo, B. W. J. Miles Orcid Logo, G. H. Gudmundsson Orcid Logo, S. S. R. Jamieson Orcid Logo, A. Jenkins Orcid Logo, C. R. Stokes Orcid Logo

Nature Communications, Volume: 14, Issue: 1

Swansea University Author: Jim Jordan Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2

Abstract

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the curre...

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Published in: Nature Communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2023
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64520
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spelling 2023-10-04T13:25:27.2392119 v2 64520 2023-09-13 Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years 6f28f48bfe39cb898ba51e3114889cbe 0000-0001-8117-1976 Jim Jordan Jim Jordan true false 2023-09-13 BGPS The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the current ocean regime, with only limited intrusions of mCDW, the EAIS will likely gain mass over the next 200 years due to the increased precipitation from a warming atmosphere outweighing increased ice discharge due to ice-shelf melting. However, if the ocean regime were to become dominated by greater mCDW intrusions, the EAIS would have a negative mass balance, contributing up to 48 mm of SLE over this time period. Our modelling finds George V Land to be particularly at risk to increased ocean induced melting. With warmer oceans, we also find that a mid range RCP4.5 emissions scenario is likely to result in a more negative mass balance than a high RCP8.5 emissions scenario, as the relative difference between increased precipitation due to a warming atmosphere and increased ice discharge due to a warming ocean is more negative in the mid range RCP4.5 emission scenario. Journal Article Nature Communications 14 1 Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2041-1723 East Antarctic Ice Sheet, EAIS, modified Circumpolar Deep Water, mCDW, ice sheet model, ice discharge, ice-shelf melting 1 4 2023 2023-04-01 10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University This work was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, grant number NE/R000719/1. This publication was supported by PROTECT. J.R.J., H.G. and A.J. have received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 55. B.W.J.M. was supported by a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship (ECF-2021-484). 2023-10-04T13:25:27.2392119 2023-09-13T10:45:55.5050019 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Jim Jordan 0000-0001-8117-1976 1 B. W. J. Miles 0000-0002-3388-4688 2 G. H. Gudmundsson 0000-0003-4236-5369 3 S. S. R. Jamieson 0000-0002-9036-2317 4 A. Jenkins 0000-0002-9117-0616 5 C. R. Stokes 0000-0003-3355-1573 6 64520__28589__8f7f0b570f424e5aa04ac2ced04e2c44.pdf 64520.pdf 2023-09-19T15:02:59.5209310 Output 3388557 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s) 2023. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0). true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
spellingShingle Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
Jim Jordan
title_short Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_full Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_fullStr Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_full_unstemmed Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_sort Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
author_id_str_mv 6f28f48bfe39cb898ba51e3114889cbe
author_id_fullname_str_mv 6f28f48bfe39cb898ba51e3114889cbe_***_Jim Jordan
author Jim Jordan
author2 Jim Jordan
B. W. J. Miles
G. H. Gudmundsson
S. S. R. Jamieson
A. Jenkins
C. R. Stokes
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container_title Nature Communications
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publishDate 2023
institution Swansea University
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publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
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description The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the current ocean regime, with only limited intrusions of mCDW, the EAIS will likely gain mass over the next 200 years due to the increased precipitation from a warming atmosphere outweighing increased ice discharge due to ice-shelf melting. However, if the ocean regime were to become dominated by greater mCDW intrusions, the EAIS would have a negative mass balance, contributing up to 48 mm of SLE over this time period. Our modelling finds George V Land to be particularly at risk to increased ocean induced melting. With warmer oceans, we also find that a mid range RCP4.5 emissions scenario is likely to result in a more negative mass balance than a high RCP8.5 emissions scenario, as the relative difference between increased precipitation due to a warming atmosphere and increased ice discharge due to a warming ocean is more negative in the mid range RCP4.5 emission scenario.
published_date 2023-04-01T05:10:58Z
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