Journal article 378 views 44 downloads
Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network
Research in International Business and Finance, Volume: 64, Start page: 101863
Swansea University Author: Abedin Abedin
-
PDF | Version of Record
© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0).
Download (3.31MB)
DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101863
Abstract
This paper aims to develop an artificial neural network-based forecasting model employing a nonlinear focused time-delayed neural network (FTDNN) for energy commodity market forecasts. To validate the proposed model, crude oil and natural gas prices are used for the period 2007–2020, including the C...
Published in: | Research in International Business and Finance |
---|---|
ISSN: | 0275-5319 |
Published: |
Elsevier BV
2023
|
Online Access: |
Check full text
|
URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64246 |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
first_indexed |
2023-09-19T13:14:53Z |
---|---|
last_indexed |
2023-09-19T13:14:53Z |
id |
cronfa64246 |
recordtype |
SURis |
fullrecord |
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><rfc1807 xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:xsd="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema"><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>64246</id><entry>2023-08-31</entry><title>Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>4ed8c020eae0c9bec4f5d9495d86d415</sid><firstname>Abedin</firstname><surname>Abedin</surname><name>Abedin Abedin</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2023-08-31</date><deptcode>BAF</deptcode><abstract>This paper aims to develop an artificial neural network-based forecasting model employing a nonlinear focused time-delayed neural network (FTDNN) for energy commodity market forecasts. To validate the proposed model, crude oil and natural gas prices are used for the period 2007–2020, including the Covid-19 period. Empirical findings show that the FTDNN model outperforms existing baselines and artificial neural network-based models in forecasting West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices and National Balancing Point and Henry Hub natural gas prices. As a result, we demonstrate the predictability of energy commodity prices during the volatile crisis period, which is attributed to the flexibility of the model parameters, implying that our study can facilitate a better understanding of the dynamics of commodity prices in the energy market.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Research in International Business and Finance</journal><volume>64</volume><journalNumber/><paginationStart>101863</paginationStart><paginationEnd/><publisher>Elsevier BV</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>0275-5319</issnPrint><issnElectronic/><keywords>Energy market, Natural gas, Crude oil, Nonlinear focused time-delayed neural network</keywords><publishedDay>31</publishedDay><publishedMonth>1</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2023</publishedYear><publishedDate>2023-01-31</publishedDate><doi>10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101863</doi><url>http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101863</url><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Accounting and Finance</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>BAF</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><funders>This work has been supported by the European Cooperation in Science & Technology COST Action grant CA19130 - Fintech and Artificial Intelligence in Finance - Towards a transparent financial industry.</funders><projectreference/><lastEdited>2023-09-20T10:53:04.5671283</lastEdited><Created>2023-08-31T17:47:19.3713155</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences</level><level id="2">School of Management - Accounting and Finance</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Ahmed</firstname><surname>Bouteska</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Petr</firstname><surname>Hajek</surname><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Ben</firstname><surname>Fisher</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>Abedin</firstname><surname>Abedin</surname><order>4</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>64246__28582__4ce68857a650437985c7735078166c46.pdf</filename><originalFilename>64246.VOR.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2023-09-19T14:14:14.8270103</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>3473831</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0).</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language><licence>https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807> |
spelling |
v2 64246 2023-08-31 Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network 4ed8c020eae0c9bec4f5d9495d86d415 Abedin Abedin Abedin Abedin true false 2023-08-31 BAF This paper aims to develop an artificial neural network-based forecasting model employing a nonlinear focused time-delayed neural network (FTDNN) for energy commodity market forecasts. To validate the proposed model, crude oil and natural gas prices are used for the period 2007–2020, including the Covid-19 period. Empirical findings show that the FTDNN model outperforms existing baselines and artificial neural network-based models in forecasting West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices and National Balancing Point and Henry Hub natural gas prices. As a result, we demonstrate the predictability of energy commodity prices during the volatile crisis period, which is attributed to the flexibility of the model parameters, implying that our study can facilitate a better understanding of the dynamics of commodity prices in the energy market. Journal Article Research in International Business and Finance 64 101863 Elsevier BV 0275-5319 Energy market, Natural gas, Crude oil, Nonlinear focused time-delayed neural network 31 1 2023 2023-01-31 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101863 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101863 COLLEGE NANME Accounting and Finance COLLEGE CODE BAF Swansea University This work has been supported by the European Cooperation in Science & Technology COST Action grant CA19130 - Fintech and Artificial Intelligence in Finance - Towards a transparent financial industry. 2023-09-20T10:53:04.5671283 2023-08-31T17:47:19.3713155 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Management - Accounting and Finance Ahmed Bouteska 1 Petr Hajek 2 Ben Fisher 3 Abedin Abedin 4 64246__28582__4ce68857a650437985c7735078166c46.pdf 64246.VOR.pdf 2023-09-19T14:14:14.8270103 Output 3473831 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
title |
Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network |
spellingShingle |
Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network Abedin Abedin |
title_short |
Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network |
title_full |
Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network |
title_sort |
Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network |
author_id_str_mv |
4ed8c020eae0c9bec4f5d9495d86d415 |
author_id_fullname_str_mv |
4ed8c020eae0c9bec4f5d9495d86d415_***_Abedin Abedin |
author |
Abedin Abedin |
author2 |
Ahmed Bouteska Petr Hajek Ben Fisher Abedin Abedin |
format |
Journal article |
container_title |
Research in International Business and Finance |
container_volume |
64 |
container_start_page |
101863 |
publishDate |
2023 |
institution |
Swansea University |
issn |
0275-5319 |
doi_str_mv |
10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101863 |
publisher |
Elsevier BV |
college_str |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |
hierarchytype |
|
hierarchy_top_id |
facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences |
hierarchy_top_title |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |
hierarchy_parent_id |
facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences |
hierarchy_parent_title |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |
department_str |
School of Management - Accounting and Finance{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Management - Accounting and Finance |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101863 |
document_store_str |
1 |
active_str |
0 |
description |
This paper aims to develop an artificial neural network-based forecasting model employing a nonlinear focused time-delayed neural network (FTDNN) for energy commodity market forecasts. To validate the proposed model, crude oil and natural gas prices are used for the period 2007–2020, including the Covid-19 period. Empirical findings show that the FTDNN model outperforms existing baselines and artificial neural network-based models in forecasting West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil prices and National Balancing Point and Henry Hub natural gas prices. As a result, we demonstrate the predictability of energy commodity prices during the volatile crisis period, which is attributed to the flexibility of the model parameters, implying that our study can facilitate a better understanding of the dynamics of commodity prices in the energy market. |
published_date |
2023-01-31T10:53:01Z |
_version_ |
1777549791014682624 |
score |
11.013575 |