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Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values

William R L Anderegg, Timothy Collins, Sara Grineski, Sarah Nicholls Orcid Logo, Christoph Nolte

Environmental Research Letters, Volume: 18, Issue: 9, Start page: 094011

Swansea University Author: Sarah Nicholls Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1088/1748-9326/ace639

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive increases in climate extremes and climate-sensitive ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire with enormous economic impacts. Understanding spatial and temporal patterns of risk to property values from climate-sensitive disturbances at national and re...

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Published in: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
Published: IOP Publishing 2023
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64021
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spelling v2 64021 2023-08-03 Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values 20e8040dcd1a1af4c09f187166fc6820 0000-0001-9363-179X Sarah Nicholls Sarah Nicholls true false 2023-08-03 BBU Anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive increases in climate extremes and climate-sensitive ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire with enormous economic impacts. Understanding spatial and temporal patterns of risk to property values from climate-sensitive disturbances at national and regional scales and from multiple disturbances is urgently needed to inform risk management and policy efforts. Here, we combine models for three major climate-sensitive disturbances (i.e., wildfire, climate stress-driven tree mortality, and insect-driven tree mortality), future climate projections of these disturbances, and high-resolution property values data to quantify the spatiotemporal exposure of property values to disturbance across the contiguous United States (US). We find that property values exposed to these climate-sensitive disturbances increase sharply in future climate scenarios, particularly in existing high-risk regions of the western US, and that novel exposure risks emerge in some currently lower-risk regions such as the southeast and Great Lakes regions. Climate policy that drives emissions towards low-to-moderate climate futures avoids large increases in disturbance risk exposure compared to high emissions scenarios. Our results provide an important large-scale assessment of climate-sensitive disturbance risk to property values to help inform land management and climate adaptation efforts. Journal Article Environmental Research Letters 18 9 094011 IOP Publishing 1748-9326 Climate change, wildfire, tree mortality, economic impacts, climate policy 30 9 2023 2023-09-30 10.1088/1748-9326/ace639 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace639 COLLEGE NANME Business COLLEGE CODE BBU Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee WRLA acknowledges support from the David and Lucille Packard Foundation, US National Science Foundation Grants 1802880, 2003017, 2044937, and IOS-2325700. 2023-09-12T17:16:37.4540591 2023-08-03T09:18:24.3386550 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Management - Business Management William R L Anderegg 1 Timothy Collins 2 Sara Grineski 3 Sarah Nicholls 0000-0001-9363-179X 4 Christoph Nolte 5 64021__28517__d63bcd962e0941c2be4f77d614ada75e.pdf 64021.VOR.pdf 2023-09-12T17:13:58.4652132 Output 2367287 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2023 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
spellingShingle Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
Sarah Nicholls
title_short Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
title_full Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
title_fullStr Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
title_full_unstemmed Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
title_sort Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
author_id_str_mv 20e8040dcd1a1af4c09f187166fc6820
author_id_fullname_str_mv 20e8040dcd1a1af4c09f187166fc6820_***_Sarah Nicholls
author Sarah Nicholls
author2 William R L Anderegg
Timothy Collins
Sara Grineski
Sarah Nicholls
Christoph Nolte
format Journal article
container_title Environmental Research Letters
container_volume 18
container_issue 9
container_start_page 094011
publishDate 2023
institution Swansea University
issn 1748-9326
doi_str_mv 10.1088/1748-9326/ace639
publisher IOP Publishing
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Management - Business Management{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Management - Business Management
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace639
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive increases in climate extremes and climate-sensitive ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire with enormous economic impacts. Understanding spatial and temporal patterns of risk to property values from climate-sensitive disturbances at national and regional scales and from multiple disturbances is urgently needed to inform risk management and policy efforts. Here, we combine models for three major climate-sensitive disturbances (i.e., wildfire, climate stress-driven tree mortality, and insect-driven tree mortality), future climate projections of these disturbances, and high-resolution property values data to quantify the spatiotemporal exposure of property values to disturbance across the contiguous United States (US). We find that property values exposed to these climate-sensitive disturbances increase sharply in future climate scenarios, particularly in existing high-risk regions of the western US, and that novel exposure risks emerge in some currently lower-risk regions such as the southeast and Great Lakes regions. Climate policy that drives emissions towards low-to-moderate climate futures avoids large increases in disturbance risk exposure compared to high emissions scenarios. Our results provide an important large-scale assessment of climate-sensitive disturbance risk to property values to help inform land management and climate adaptation efforts.
published_date 2023-09-30T17:16:39Z
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score 11.017173

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