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An external validation of the QCOVID3 risk prediction algorithm for risk of hospitalisation and death from COVID-19: An observational, prospective cohort study of 1.66m vaccinated adults in Wales, UK

Jane Lyons, Vahé Nafilyan, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Stuart Bedston, Ewen Harrison, Andrew Hayward, Julia Hippisley-Cox, Frank Kee, Kamlesh Khunti Orcid Logo, Shamim Rahman, Aziz Sheikh, Fatemeh Torabi Orcid Logo, Ronan Lyons Orcid Logo

PLOS ONE, Volume: 18, Issue: 5, Start page: e0285979

Swansea University Authors: Jane Lyons, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Stuart Bedston, Fatemeh Torabi Orcid Logo, Ronan Lyons Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1371/journal.pone.0285979

Abstract

Introduction: At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an urgent need to identify individuals at highest risk of severe outcomes, such as hospitalisation and death following infection. The QCOVID risk prediction algorithms emerged as key tools in facilitating this which were further developed...

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Published in: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2023
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa63512
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Abstract: Introduction: At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an urgent need to identify individuals at highest risk of severe outcomes, such as hospitalisation and death following infection. The QCOVID risk prediction algorithms emerged as key tools in facilitating this which were further developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic to identify groups of people at highest risk of severe COVID-19 related outcomes following one or two doses of vaccine. Objectives: To externally validate the QCOVID3 algorithm based on primary and secondary care records for Wales, UK. Methods: We conducted an observational, prospective cohort based on electronic health care records for 1.66m vaccinated adults living in Wales on 8th December 2020, with follow-up until 15th June 2021. Follow-up started from day 14 post vaccination to allow the full effect of the vaccine. Results: The scores produced by the QCOVID3 risk algorithm showed high levels of discrimination for both COVID-19 related deaths and hospital admissions and good calibration (Harrell C statistic: ≥ 0.828). Conclusion: This validation of the updated QCOVID3 risk algorithms in the adult vaccinated Welsh population has shown that the algorithms are valid for use in the Welsh population, and applicable on a population independent of the original study, which has not been previously reported. This study provides further evidence that the QCOVID algorithms can help inform public health risk management on the ongoing surveillance and intervention to manage COVID-19 related risks.
Keywords: Medical risk factors, COVID 19, Vaccination and immunization, Dose prediction methods, Pandemics, Wales, Vaccines, Algorithms.
College: Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
Funders: This work was supported by the Con-COV team funded by the Medical Research Council (grant number: MR/V028367/1). This work was supported by Health Data Research UK, which receives its funding from HDR UK Ltd (HDR-9006) and the Medical Research Council (MR/ S027750/1). HDR UK Ltd is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation (BHF) and the Wellcome Trust. This work was supported by the ADR Wales programme of work. The ADR Wales programme of work is aligned to the priority themes as identified in the Welsh Government’s national strategy: Prosperity for All. ADR Wales brings together data science experts at Swansea University Medical School, staff from the Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research, Data and Methods (WISERD) at Cardiff University and specialist teams within the Welsh Government to develop new evidence which supports Prosperity for All by using the SAIL Databank at Swansea University, to link and analyse anonymised data. ADR Wales is part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1). This work was supported by the Wales COVID-19 Evidence Centre, funded by Health and Care Research Wales. The original development and validation of the QCOVID algorithms were funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) following a commission by the Chief Medical Officer for England. QResearch was supported by funds from the John Fell Oxford University Press Research Fund, grants from Cancer Research UK (grant C5255/A18085), through the Cancer Research UK Oxford Centre, and, grants from the Oxford Wellcome Institutional StrategicSupport Fund (204826/Z/16/Z), during the conduct of the study. KK is supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration East Midlands (ARC EM) and the NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Issue: 5
Start Page: e0285979

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