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Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features
International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, Volume: 23, Issue: 1, Pages: 85 - 91
Swansea University Author: Jason Davies
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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529
Abstract
The Offender Group Reconviction Scale 2 (OGRS-2) excludes social and clinical factors that are known to be associated with offending risk in people with mental health problems, but shows similar predictive validity to structured professional judgment tools that include them. The aim of this study wa...
Published in: | International Journal of Forensic Mental Health |
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ISSN: | 1499-9013 1932-9903 |
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Informa UK Limited
2023
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URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa62796 |
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v2 62796 2023-03-06 Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features b7dab4136f5c9c0614cda9bf2d5910b0 0000-0002-1694-5370 Jason Davies Jason Davies true false 2023-03-06 HPS The Offender Group Reconviction Scale 2 (OGRS-2) excludes social and clinical factors that are known to be associated with offending risk in people with mental health problems, but shows similar predictive validity to structured professional judgment tools that include them. The aim of this study was to determine whether the predictive validity of OGRS-2 would be enhanced by the addition of social and clinical factors. A retrospective case note analysis was conducted on a national cohort of patients who were discharged from 35 UK medium secure between 01 April 1997 and 31 March 1998. Social factors, clinical factors and OGRS-2 probability scores were combined in a regression model using violent and any reconviction as outcomes across two-, four- and six year follow up periods. The OGRS-2 showed strong predictive validity for both any and violent reoffending, addition of social and clinical factors yielded no significant improvements. OGRS-2 may have reached an accuracy ceiling in predicting re-offending but remains effective for use alone to estimate risk of further convictions following discharge. OGRS-2 retains the well-established limitations of actuarial risk tools but can potentially aid in decision making around supervision and monitoring. OGRS-2 has potential to control for reconviction risk in reoffending outcome studies of medium secure service users. Journal Article International Journal of Forensic Mental Health 23 1 85 91 Informa UK Limited 1499-9013 1932-9903 OGRS, actuarial risk, predictive validity, reconviction 28 2 2023 2023-02-28 10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529 COLLEGE NANME Psychology COLLEGE CODE HPS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee 2024-04-03T14:47:34.0121627 2023-03-06T10:57:36.3082639 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences School of Psychology Charlotte Hill 1 Ruth Bagshaw 2 Paul Hewlett 3 Nick Perham 4 Jason Davies 0000-0002-1694-5370 5 Anthony Maden 6 Andrew Watt 7 62796__26748__dd38515dd5524e12aeb45b83dc0ca8bb.pdf Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction Part 1 Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale OGRS 2 and Redundancy.pdf 2023-03-06T10:58:43.8222344 Output 1114299 application/pdf Version of Record true This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/ |
title |
Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features |
spellingShingle |
Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features Jason Davies |
title_short |
Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features |
title_full |
Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features |
title_sort |
Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features |
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b7dab4136f5c9c0614cda9bf2d5910b0 |
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b7dab4136f5c9c0614cda9bf2d5910b0_***_Jason Davies |
author |
Jason Davies |
author2 |
Charlotte Hill Ruth Bagshaw Paul Hewlett Nick Perham Jason Davies Anthony Maden Andrew Watt |
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International Journal of Forensic Mental Health |
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85 |
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Swansea University |
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1499-9013 1932-9903 |
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10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529 |
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Informa UK Limited |
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Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences |
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description |
The Offender Group Reconviction Scale 2 (OGRS-2) excludes social and clinical factors that are known to be associated with offending risk in people with mental health problems, but shows similar predictive validity to structured professional judgment tools that include them. The aim of this study was to determine whether the predictive validity of OGRS-2 would be enhanced by the addition of social and clinical factors. A retrospective case note analysis was conducted on a national cohort of patients who were discharged from 35 UK medium secure between 01 April 1997 and 31 March 1998. Social factors, clinical factors and OGRS-2 probability scores were combined in a regression model using violent and any reconviction as outcomes across two-, four- and six year follow up periods. The OGRS-2 showed strong predictive validity for both any and violent reoffending, addition of social and clinical factors yielded no significant improvements. OGRS-2 may have reached an accuracy ceiling in predicting re-offending but remains effective for use alone to estimate risk of further convictions following discharge. OGRS-2 retains the well-established limitations of actuarial risk tools but can potentially aid in decision making around supervision and monitoring. OGRS-2 has potential to control for reconviction risk in reoffending outcome studies of medium secure service users. |
published_date |
2023-02-28T14:47:30Z |
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11.037581 |