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Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features

Charlotte Hill, Ruth Bagshaw, Paul Hewlett, Nick Perham, Jason Davies Orcid Logo, Anthony Maden, Andrew Watt

International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, Volume: 23, Issue: 1, Pages: 85 - 91

Swansea University Author: Jason Davies Orcid Logo

  • Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction Part 1 Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale OGRS 2 and Redundancy.pdf

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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529

Abstract

The Offender Group Reconviction Scale 2 (OGRS-2) excludes social and clinical factors that are known to be associated with offending risk in people with mental health problems, but shows similar predictive validity to structured professional judgment tools that include them. The aim of this study wa...

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Published in: International Journal of Forensic Mental Health
ISSN: 1499-9013 1932-9903
Published: Informa UK Limited 2023
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa62796
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A retrospective case note analysis was conducted on a national cohort of patients who were discharged from 35 UK medium secure between 01 April 1997 and 31 March 1998. Social factors, clinical factors and OGRS-2 probability scores were combined in a regression model using violent and any reconviction as outcomes across two-, four- and six year follow up periods. The OGRS-2 showed strong predictive validity for both any and violent reoffending, addition of social and clinical factors yielded no significant improvements. OGRS-2 may have reached an accuracy ceiling in predicting re-offending but remains effective for use alone to estimate risk of further convictions following discharge. OGRS-2 retains the well-established limitations of actuarial risk tools but can potentially aid in decision making around supervision and monitoring. 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spelling v2 62796 2023-03-06 Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features b7dab4136f5c9c0614cda9bf2d5910b0 0000-0002-1694-5370 Jason Davies Jason Davies true false 2023-03-06 HPS The Offender Group Reconviction Scale 2 (OGRS-2) excludes social and clinical factors that are known to be associated with offending risk in people with mental health problems, but shows similar predictive validity to structured professional judgment tools that include them. The aim of this study was to determine whether the predictive validity of OGRS-2 would be enhanced by the addition of social and clinical factors. A retrospective case note analysis was conducted on a national cohort of patients who were discharged from 35 UK medium secure between 01 April 1997 and 31 March 1998. Social factors, clinical factors and OGRS-2 probability scores were combined in a regression model using violent and any reconviction as outcomes across two-, four- and six year follow up periods. The OGRS-2 showed strong predictive validity for both any and violent reoffending, addition of social and clinical factors yielded no significant improvements. OGRS-2 may have reached an accuracy ceiling in predicting re-offending but remains effective for use alone to estimate risk of further convictions following discharge. OGRS-2 retains the well-established limitations of actuarial risk tools but can potentially aid in decision making around supervision and monitoring. OGRS-2 has potential to control for reconviction risk in reoffending outcome studies of medium secure service users. Journal Article International Journal of Forensic Mental Health 23 1 85 91 Informa UK Limited 1499-9013 1932-9903 OGRS, actuarial risk, predictive validity, reconviction 28 2 2023 2023-02-28 10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529 COLLEGE NANME Psychology COLLEGE CODE HPS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee 2024-04-03T14:47:34.0121627 2023-03-06T10:57:36.3082639 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences School of Psychology Charlotte Hill 1 Ruth Bagshaw 2 Paul Hewlett 3 Nick Perham 4 Jason Davies 0000-0002-1694-5370 5 Anthony Maden 6 Andrew Watt 7 62796__26748__dd38515dd5524e12aeb45b83dc0ca8bb.pdf Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction Part 1 Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale OGRS 2 and Redundancy.pdf 2023-03-06T10:58:43.8222344 Output 1114299 application/pdf Version of Record true This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/
title Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features
spellingShingle Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features
Jason Davies
title_short Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features
title_full Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features
title_fullStr Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features
title_sort Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 1 – Predictive Validity of the Offending Groups Reconviction Scale (OGRS-2) and Redundancy of Patient Social and Clinical Features
author_id_str_mv b7dab4136f5c9c0614cda9bf2d5910b0
author_id_fullname_str_mv b7dab4136f5c9c0614cda9bf2d5910b0_***_Jason Davies
author Jason Davies
author2 Charlotte Hill
Ruth Bagshaw
Paul Hewlett
Nick Perham
Jason Davies
Anthony Maden
Andrew Watt
format Journal article
container_title International Journal of Forensic Mental Health
container_volume 23
container_issue 1
container_start_page 85
publishDate 2023
institution Swansea University
issn 1499-9013
1932-9903
doi_str_mv 10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529
publisher Informa UK Limited
college_str Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
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hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
department_str School of Psychology{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Psychology
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14999013.2023.2183529
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description The Offender Group Reconviction Scale 2 (OGRS-2) excludes social and clinical factors that are known to be associated with offending risk in people with mental health problems, but shows similar predictive validity to structured professional judgment tools that include them. The aim of this study was to determine whether the predictive validity of OGRS-2 would be enhanced by the addition of social and clinical factors. A retrospective case note analysis was conducted on a national cohort of patients who were discharged from 35 UK medium secure between 01 April 1997 and 31 March 1998. Social factors, clinical factors and OGRS-2 probability scores were combined in a regression model using violent and any reconviction as outcomes across two-, four- and six year follow up periods. The OGRS-2 showed strong predictive validity for both any and violent reoffending, addition of social and clinical factors yielded no significant improvements. OGRS-2 may have reached an accuracy ceiling in predicting re-offending but remains effective for use alone to estimate risk of further convictions following discharge. OGRS-2 retains the well-established limitations of actuarial risk tools but can potentially aid in decision making around supervision and monitoring. OGRS-2 has potential to control for reconviction risk in reoffending outcome studies of medium secure service users.
published_date 2023-02-28T14:47:30Z
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