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Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records

Cathy Qi, Tim Osborne Orcid Logo, Rowena Bailey, Alison Cooper Orcid Logo, Joe P Hollinghurst, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Ruth Crowder, Holly Peters, Rebecca-Jane Law, Ruth Lewis, Deb Smith, Adrian Edwards Orcid Logo, Ronan Lyons Orcid Logo, Timothy Osborne, Joe Hollinghurst

British Journal of General Practice, Volume: 73, Issue: 730, Pages: e332 - e339

Swansea University Authors: Cathy Qi, Rowena Bailey, Ashley Akbari Orcid Logo, Ronan Lyons Orcid Logo, Timothy Osborne, Joe Hollinghurst

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DOI (Published version): 10.3399/bjgp.2022.0353

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has indirectly impacted health service provisions owing to surge and sustained pressures on the system. The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood. Aim: To explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recor...

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Published in: British Journal of General Practice
ISSN: 0960-1643 1478-5242
Published: Royal College of General Practitioners 2023
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa62281
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The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood. Aim: To explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recorded incidence of 17 long-term conditions. Design and Setting: An observational retrospective population data linkage study on the population of Wales using primary and secondary care data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Methods: We presented monthly rates of new diagnosis between 2000 and 2021 for each long-term condition. Incidence rates post-2020 were compared to expected rates predicted using time series modelling of pre-2020 trends. Proportion of annual incidence was presented by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, social deprivation, ethnicity, frailty and learning disability. Results: We included 5,476,012 diagnoses from 2,257,992 individuals. Incidence rates from 2020 to 2021 were lower than mean expected rates across all conditions. The largest relative deficit in incidence was in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease corresponding to 343 (95% CI: 230 to 456) undiagnosed patients per 100,000 population, followed by depression, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, anxiety disorders and asthma. A GP practice of 10,000 patients might have over 400 undiagnosed long-term conditions. No notable differences between socio-demographic profiles of post- and pre- 2020 incidences were observed. Conclusion: There is a potential backlog of undiagnosed patients across multiple long-term conditions. 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spelling v2 62281 2023-01-09 Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records ca7ac3158e7a78d832f55d14017ffbe7 Cathy Qi Cathy Qi true false 455e2c1e6193448f6269b9e72acaf865 Rowena Bailey Rowena Bailey true false aa1b025ec0243f708bb5eb0a93d6fb52 0000-0003-0814-0801 Ashley Akbari Ashley Akbari true false 83efcf2a9dfcf8b55586999d3d152ac6 0000-0001-5225-000X Ronan Lyons Ronan Lyons true false 28f92ffb3c0d67444a64d9666aa58918 Timothy Osborne Timothy Osborne true false d7c51b69270b644a11b904629fe56ab0 Joe Hollinghurst Joe Hollinghurst true false 2023-01-09 HDAT Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has indirectly impacted health service provisions owing to surge and sustained pressures on the system. The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood. Aim: To explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recorded incidence of 17 long-term conditions. Design and Setting: An observational retrospective population data linkage study on the population of Wales using primary and secondary care data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Methods: We presented monthly rates of new diagnosis between 2000 and 2021 for each long-term condition. Incidence rates post-2020 were compared to expected rates predicted using time series modelling of pre-2020 trends. Proportion of annual incidence was presented by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, social deprivation, ethnicity, frailty and learning disability. Results: We included 5,476,012 diagnoses from 2,257,992 individuals. Incidence rates from 2020 to 2021 were lower than mean expected rates across all conditions. The largest relative deficit in incidence was in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease corresponding to 343 (95% CI: 230 to 456) undiagnosed patients per 100,000 population, followed by depression, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, anxiety disorders and asthma. A GP practice of 10,000 patients might have over 400 undiagnosed long-term conditions. No notable differences between socio-demographic profiles of post- and pre- 2020 incidences were observed. Conclusion: There is a potential backlog of undiagnosed patients across multiple long-term conditions. Resources are required to tackle anticipated workload as part of COVID-recovery, particularly in primary care. Journal Article British Journal of General Practice 73 730 e332 e339 Royal College of General Practitioners 0960-1643 1478-5242 Anxiety, chronic disease, COVID-19, diagnosis, primary health care 1 5 2023 2023-05-01 10.3399/bjgp.2022.0353 http://dx.doi.org/10.3399/bjgp.2022.0353 COLLEGE NANME Health Data Science COLLEGE CODE HDAT Swansea University External research funder(s) paid the OA fee (includes OA grants disbursed by the Library) UKRI (MR/V028367/1). 2023-06-23T14:56:24.6757881 2023-01-09T15:28:40.8675898 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science Cathy Qi 1 Tim Osborne 0000-0002-0928-3364 2 Rowena Bailey 3 Alison Cooper 0000-0001-8660-6721 4 Joe P Hollinghurst 5 Ashley Akbari 0000-0003-0814-0801 6 Ruth Crowder 7 Holly Peters 8 Rebecca-Jane Law 9 Ruth Lewis 10 Deb Smith 11 Adrian Edwards 0000-0002-6228-4446 12 Ronan Lyons 0000-0001-5225-000X 13 Timothy Osborne 14 Joe Hollinghurst 15 62281__27952__8409e0656759436ab94fdd469de71dcf.pdf 62281.VOR.pdf 2023-06-23T14:50:37.3700247 Output 865942 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Authors. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY 4.0). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records
spellingShingle Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records
Cathy Qi
Rowena Bailey
Ashley Akbari
Ronan Lyons
Timothy Osborne
Joe Hollinghurst
title_short Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records
title_full Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records
title_fullStr Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records
title_full_unstemmed Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records
title_sort Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on incidence of long-term conditions in Wales: a population data linkage study using primary and secondary care health records
author_id_str_mv ca7ac3158e7a78d832f55d14017ffbe7
455e2c1e6193448f6269b9e72acaf865
aa1b025ec0243f708bb5eb0a93d6fb52
83efcf2a9dfcf8b55586999d3d152ac6
28f92ffb3c0d67444a64d9666aa58918
d7c51b69270b644a11b904629fe56ab0
author_id_fullname_str_mv ca7ac3158e7a78d832f55d14017ffbe7_***_Cathy Qi
455e2c1e6193448f6269b9e72acaf865_***_Rowena Bailey
aa1b025ec0243f708bb5eb0a93d6fb52_***_Ashley Akbari
83efcf2a9dfcf8b55586999d3d152ac6_***_Ronan Lyons
28f92ffb3c0d67444a64d9666aa58918_***_Timothy Osborne
d7c51b69270b644a11b904629fe56ab0_***_Joe Hollinghurst
author Cathy Qi
Rowena Bailey
Ashley Akbari
Ronan Lyons
Timothy Osborne
Joe Hollinghurst
author2 Cathy Qi
Tim Osborne
Rowena Bailey
Alison Cooper
Joe P Hollinghurst
Ashley Akbari
Ruth Crowder
Holly Peters
Rebecca-Jane Law
Ruth Lewis
Deb Smith
Adrian Edwards
Ronan Lyons
Timothy Osborne
Joe Hollinghurst
format Journal article
container_title British Journal of General Practice
container_volume 73
container_issue 730
container_start_page e332
publishDate 2023
institution Swansea University
issn 0960-1643
1478-5242
doi_str_mv 10.3399/bjgp.2022.0353
publisher Royal College of General Practitioners
college_str Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
department_str Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences{{{_:::_}}}Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science
url http://dx.doi.org/10.3399/bjgp.2022.0353
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has indirectly impacted health service provisions owing to surge and sustained pressures on the system. The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood. Aim: To explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recorded incidence of 17 long-term conditions. Design and Setting: An observational retrospective population data linkage study on the population of Wales using primary and secondary care data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Methods: We presented monthly rates of new diagnosis between 2000 and 2021 for each long-term condition. Incidence rates post-2020 were compared to expected rates predicted using time series modelling of pre-2020 trends. Proportion of annual incidence was presented by socio-demographic factors: age, sex, social deprivation, ethnicity, frailty and learning disability. Results: We included 5,476,012 diagnoses from 2,257,992 individuals. Incidence rates from 2020 to 2021 were lower than mean expected rates across all conditions. The largest relative deficit in incidence was in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease corresponding to 343 (95% CI: 230 to 456) undiagnosed patients per 100,000 population, followed by depression, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, anxiety disorders and asthma. A GP practice of 10,000 patients might have over 400 undiagnosed long-term conditions. No notable differences between socio-demographic profiles of post- and pre- 2020 incidences were observed. Conclusion: There is a potential backlog of undiagnosed patients across multiple long-term conditions. Resources are required to tackle anticipated workload as part of COVID-recovery, particularly in primary care.
published_date 2023-05-01T14:56:19Z
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