No Cover Image

Journal article 28 views

A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections / Jack Tudor, Matthew Wall

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, Pages: 1 - 23

Swansea University Author: Matthew Wall

  • Accepted Manuscript under embargo until: 28th February 2023

Abstract

This article argues that electoral context affects the projection mechanisms inherent in polling. This insight applies both to the estimation of party vote shares by pollsters and to poll-driven substantive political expectations. We test this contention by analysing 794 in-campaign polls covering t...

Full description

Published in: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
ISSN: 1745-7289 1745-7297
Published: Informa UK Limited 2021
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa58301
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
first_indexed 2021-10-12T11:51:22Z
last_indexed 2021-11-10T04:25:35Z
id cronfa58301
recordtype SURis
fullrecord <?xml version="1.0"?><rfc1807><datestamp>2021-11-09T17:24:47.1764704</datestamp><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>58301</id><entry>2021-10-12</entry><title>A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd</sid><ORCID>0000-0001-8265-4910</ORCID><firstname>Matthew</firstname><surname>Wall</surname><name>Matthew Wall</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2021-10-12</date><deptcode>APC</deptcode><abstract>This article argues that electoral context affects the projection mechanisms inherent in polling. This insight applies both to the estimation of party vote shares by pollsters and to poll-driven substantive political expectations. We test this contention by analysing 794 in-campaign polls covering the UK&#x2019;s 21 post-war general elections, as well as an updated version of Jennings and Wlezien&#x2019;s (2018) international polling dataset. We demonstrate that the election level accounts for a significant portion of the observed variance in polling error. This finding is shown to be valid across several modelling approaches and measures of polling accuracy.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties</journal><volume>0</volume><journalNumber/><paginationStart>1</paginationStart><paginationEnd>23</paginationEnd><publisher>Informa UK Limited</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint>1745-7289</issnPrint><issnElectronic>1745-7297</issnElectronic><keywords>polling error; electoral context; multi-level modelling; British general elections; intra-class correlation</keywords><publishedDay>31</publishedDay><publishedMonth>8</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2021</publishedYear><publishedDate>2021-08-31</publishedDate><doi>10.1080/17457289.2021.1972305</doi><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Politics, Philosophy and International Relations</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>APC</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2021-11-09T17:24:47.1764704</lastEdited><Created>2021-10-12T12:39:21.3209125</Created><path><level id="1">College of Arts and Humanities</level><level id="2">Political and Cultural Studies</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Jack</firstname><surname>Tudor</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>Matthew</firstname><surname>Wall</surname><orcid>0000-0001-8265-4910</orcid><order>2</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>Under embargo</filename><originalFilename>Under embargo</originalFilename><uploaded>2021-10-12T12:49:41.8395018</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>811599</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Accepted Manuscript</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><embargoDate>2023-02-28T00:00:00.0000000</embargoDate><documentNotes>Released under the terms of a CC BY-NC license.</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling 2021-11-09T17:24:47.1764704 v2 58301 2021-10-12 A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections 22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd 0000-0001-8265-4910 Matthew Wall Matthew Wall true false 2021-10-12 APC This article argues that electoral context affects the projection mechanisms inherent in polling. This insight applies both to the estimation of party vote shares by pollsters and to poll-driven substantive political expectations. We test this contention by analysing 794 in-campaign polls covering the UK’s 21 post-war general elections, as well as an updated version of Jennings and Wlezien’s (2018) international polling dataset. We demonstrate that the election level accounts for a significant portion of the observed variance in polling error. This finding is shown to be valid across several modelling approaches and measures of polling accuracy. Journal Article Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 0 1 23 Informa UK Limited 1745-7289 1745-7297 polling error; electoral context; multi-level modelling; British general elections; intra-class correlation 31 8 2021 2021-08-31 10.1080/17457289.2021.1972305 COLLEGE NANME Politics, Philosophy and International Relations COLLEGE CODE APC Swansea University 2021-11-09T17:24:47.1764704 2021-10-12T12:39:21.3209125 College of Arts and Humanities Political and Cultural Studies Jack Tudor 1 Matthew Wall 0000-0001-8265-4910 2 Under embargo Under embargo 2021-10-12T12:49:41.8395018 Output 811599 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2023-02-28T00:00:00.0000000 Released under the terms of a CC BY-NC license. true eng
title A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
spellingShingle A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
Matthew, Wall
title_short A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
title_full A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
title_fullStr A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
title_full_unstemmed A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
title_sort A moving target? An analysis of the impact of electoral context on polling error variation in both British and international general elections
author_id_str_mv 22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd
author_id_fullname_str_mv 22914658d586a5759d4d4b945ea140bd_***_Matthew, Wall
author Matthew, Wall
author2 Jack Tudor
Matthew Wall
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
container_volume 0
container_start_page 1
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
issn 1745-7289
1745-7297
doi_str_mv 10.1080/17457289.2021.1972305
publisher Informa UK Limited
college_str College of Arts and Humanities
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id collegeofartsandhumanities
hierarchy_top_title College of Arts and Humanities
hierarchy_parent_id collegeofartsandhumanities
hierarchy_parent_title College of Arts and Humanities
department_str Political and Cultural Studies{{{_:::_}}}College of Arts and Humanities{{{_:::_}}}Political and Cultural Studies
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description This article argues that electoral context affects the projection mechanisms inherent in polling. This insight applies both to the estimation of party vote shares by pollsters and to poll-driven substantive political expectations. We test this contention by analysing 794 in-campaign polls covering the UK’s 21 post-war general elections, as well as an updated version of Jennings and Wlezien’s (2018) international polling dataset. We demonstrate that the election level accounts for a significant portion of the observed variance in polling error. This finding is shown to be valid across several modelling approaches and measures of polling accuracy.
published_date 2021-08-31T04:18:06Z
_version_ 1717915915153047552
score 10.845699