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Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings?

Danny McCarroll, Josie Duffy, Neil Loader Orcid Logo, Giles Young, Darren Davies, Daniel Miles, Christopher Bronk Ramsey

The Holocene, Volume: 30, Issue: 11

Swansea University Authors: Danny McCarroll, Josie Duffy, Neil Loader Orcid Logo, Giles Young, Darren Davies

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DOI (Published version): 10.1177/0959683620941073

Abstract

We test a recent prediction that stable carbon isotope ratios from UK oaks will display age-trends of more than 4‰ per century by measuring >5400 carbon isotope ratios from the late-wood alpha-cellulose of individual rings from 18 modern oak trees and 50 building timbers spanning the 9th to 21st...

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Published in: The Holocene
ISSN: 0959-6836 1477-0911
Published: SAGE Publications 2020
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa54506
first_indexed 2020-06-18T13:10:47Z
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After a very short (c.5 years) juvenile phase with slightly elevated values, the number of series that show rising and falling trends is almost equal (33:35) and the average trend is almost zero. These results are based upon measuring and averaging the trends in individual time-series; the &#x2018;mean of the slopes&#x2019; approach. We demonstrate that the more conventional &#x2018;slope of the mean&#x2019; approach can produce strong but spurious &#x2018;age-trends&#x2019; even when the constituent series are flat, with zero slope and zero variance. We conclude that it is safe to compile stable carbon isotope chronologies from UK oaks without de-trending. 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spelling 2024-10-29T14:14:51.5820471 v2 54506 2020-06-18 Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings? 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960 Danny McCarroll Danny McCarroll true false 4b5db591d5d8a8f6088e522fd50fb697 Josie Duffy Josie Duffy true false 8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6 0000-0002-6841-1813 Neil Loader Neil Loader true false e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a Giles Young Giles Young true false 9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306 Darren Davies Darren Davies true false 2020-06-18 We test a recent prediction that stable carbon isotope ratios from UK oaks will display age-trends of more than 4‰ per century by measuring >5400 carbon isotope ratios from the late-wood alpha-cellulose of individual rings from 18 modern oak trees and 50 building timbers spanning the 9th to 21st centuries. After a very short (c.5 years) juvenile phase with slightly elevated values, the number of series that show rising and falling trends is almost equal (33:35) and the average trend is almost zero. These results are based upon measuring and averaging the trends in individual time-series; the ‘mean of the slopes’ approach. We demonstrate that the more conventional ‘slope of the mean’ approach can produce strong but spurious ‘age-trends’ even when the constituent series are flat, with zero slope and zero variance. We conclude that it is safe to compile stable carbon isotope chronologies from UK oaks without de-trending. The isotope chronologies produced in this way are not subject to the ‘segment length curse’, which applies to growth measurements, such as ring width or density, and have the potential to retain very long-term climate signals. Journal Article The Holocene 30 11 SAGE Publications 0959-6836 1477-0911 dendrochronology, dendroclimatology, Quercus, palaeoclimate. 1 11 2020 2020-11-01 10.1177/0959683620941073 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University Other The authors thank the Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2014-327), NERC (NE/P011527/1) and SSHRC (895-2019-1015) for supporting this research and Gareth James for essential technical assistance and sample preparation.. The author(s) received the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2014-327), NERC (NE/P011527/1), SSHRC (895=2019=1015). 2024-10-29T14:14:51.5820471 2020-06-18T11:32:54.5834928 Professional Services Danny McCarroll 1 Josie Duffy 2 Neil Loader 0000-0002-6841-1813 3 Giles Young 4 Darren Davies 5 Daniel Miles 6 Christopher Bronk Ramsey 7 54506__17949__b6c34d785e8349afb5c94dc412feba38.pdf 54506.pdf 2020-08-17T10:54:34.6410532 Output 618864 application/pdf Version of Record true Released under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC-BY). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings?
spellingShingle Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings?
Danny McCarroll
Josie Duffy
Neil Loader
Giles Young
Darren Davies
title_short Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings?
title_full Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings?
title_fullStr Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings?
title_full_unstemmed Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings?
title_sort Are there enormous age-trends in stable carbon isotope ratios of oak tree rings?
author_id_str_mv 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960
4b5db591d5d8a8f6088e522fd50fb697
8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6
e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a
9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306
author_id_fullname_str_mv 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960_***_Danny McCarroll
4b5db591d5d8a8f6088e522fd50fb697_***_Josie Duffy
8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6_***_Neil Loader
e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a_***_Giles Young
9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306_***_Darren Davies
author Danny McCarroll
Josie Duffy
Neil Loader
Giles Young
Darren Davies
author2 Danny McCarroll
Josie Duffy
Neil Loader
Giles Young
Darren Davies
Daniel Miles
Christopher Bronk Ramsey
format Journal article
container_title The Holocene
container_volume 30
container_issue 11
publishDate 2020
institution Swansea University
issn 0959-6836
1477-0911
doi_str_mv 10.1177/0959683620941073
publisher SAGE Publications
college_str Professional Services
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id professionalservices
hierarchy_top_title Professional Services
hierarchy_parent_id professionalservices
hierarchy_parent_title Professional Services
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description We test a recent prediction that stable carbon isotope ratios from UK oaks will display age-trends of more than 4‰ per century by measuring >5400 carbon isotope ratios from the late-wood alpha-cellulose of individual rings from 18 modern oak trees and 50 building timbers spanning the 9th to 21st centuries. After a very short (c.5 years) juvenile phase with slightly elevated values, the number of series that show rising and falling trends is almost equal (33:35) and the average trend is almost zero. These results are based upon measuring and averaging the trends in individual time-series; the ‘mean of the slopes’ approach. We demonstrate that the more conventional ‘slope of the mean’ approach can produce strong but spurious ‘age-trends’ even when the constituent series are flat, with zero slope and zero variance. We conclude that it is safe to compile stable carbon isotope chronologies from UK oaks without de-trending. The isotope chronologies produced in this way are not subject to the ‘segment length curse’, which applies to growth measurements, such as ring width or density, and have the potential to retain very long-term climate signals.
published_date 2020-11-01T04:58:21Z
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score 11.3749895

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