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Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings

Neil Loader Orcid Logo, Giles Young, Danny McCarroll, Darren Davies, Daniel Miles, Christopher Bronk Ramsey

Journal of Quaternary Science, Volume: 35, Issue: 6, Pages: 731 - 736

Swansea University Authors: Neil Loader Orcid Logo, Giles Young, Danny McCarroll, Darren Davies

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DOI (Published version): 10.1002/jqs.3226

Abstract

Oxygen isotope ratios from oak tree rings are used to extend May to August precipitation totals of the England and Wales precipitation series back to 1201CE. The agreement between instrumental and reconstructed values is unusually strong, with more than half of the variance explained and standard ve...

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Published in: Journal of Quaternary Science
ISSN: 0267-8179 1099-1417
Published: Wiley 2020
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa54357
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spelling 2020-12-16T18:35:20.1719417 v2 54357 2020-06-01 Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings 8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6 0000-0002-6841-1813 Neil Loader Neil Loader true false e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a Giles Young Giles Young true false 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960 Danny McCarroll Danny McCarroll true false 9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306 Darren Davies Darren Davies true false 2020-06-01 SGE Oxygen isotope ratios from oak tree rings are used to extend May to August precipitation totals of the England and Wales precipitation series back to 1201CE. The agreement between instrumental and reconstructed values is unusually strong, with more than half of the variance explained and standard verification tests passed. The stability of this relationship is confirmed using split-period calibration and verification. This allows the reconstruction to be variance-scaled to the full length of the instrumental series back to 1766. Direct comparison with historical reports of very wet and dry summers show good agreement. Near-constant replication, with a minimum of ten timbers sourced from historic buildings across central southern England ensures signal strength does not change over time. Summers during the late 20th century appear anomalously dry and those of the 21st century very close to the pre-20th century average with no evidence in the record of prolonged ‘megadroughts’ across England and Wales. Journal Article Journal of Quaternary Science 35 6 731 736 Wiley 0267-8179 1099-1417 dendrochronology, Holocene, hydroclimate, palaeoclimate, Quercus 1 8 2020 2020-08-01 10.1002/jqs.3226 COLLEGE NANME Geography COLLEGE CODE SGE Swansea University Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P011527/1), the Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2014-327), Landmark Trust Futures Initiative. / Wiley TA deal (Library). 2020-12-16T18:35:20.1719417 2020-06-01T10:16:04.9178774 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Neil Loader 0000-0002-6841-1813 1 Giles Young 2 Danny McCarroll 3 Darren Davies 4 Daniel Miles 5 Christopher Bronk Ramsey 6 54357__17675__f1c6ffdc0fc449cb9034b9eea9ea1b74.pdf 54357.pdf 2020-07-07T16:20:01.9450650 Output 1306073 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2020 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings
spellingShingle Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings
Neil Loader
Giles Young
Danny McCarroll
Darren Davies
title_short Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings
title_full Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings
title_fullStr Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings
title_full_unstemmed Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings
title_sort Summer precipitation for the England and Wales region, 1201–2000 ce, from stable oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings
author_id_str_mv 8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6
e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a
6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960
9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306
author_id_fullname_str_mv 8267a62100791965d08df6a7842676e6_***_Neil Loader
e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a_***_Giles Young
6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960_***_Danny McCarroll
9fa284670cd135b40307d8550bfbb306_***_Darren Davies
author Neil Loader
Giles Young
Danny McCarroll
Darren Davies
author2 Neil Loader
Giles Young
Danny McCarroll
Darren Davies
Daniel Miles
Christopher Bronk Ramsey
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Quaternary Science
container_volume 35
container_issue 6
container_start_page 731
publishDate 2020
institution Swansea University
issn 0267-8179
1099-1417
doi_str_mv 10.1002/jqs.3226
publisher Wiley
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Oxygen isotope ratios from oak tree rings are used to extend May to August precipitation totals of the England and Wales precipitation series back to 1201CE. The agreement between instrumental and reconstructed values is unusually strong, with more than half of the variance explained and standard verification tests passed. The stability of this relationship is confirmed using split-period calibration and verification. This allows the reconstruction to be variance-scaled to the full length of the instrumental series back to 1766. Direct comparison with historical reports of very wet and dry summers show good agreement. Near-constant replication, with a minimum of ten timbers sourced from historic buildings across central southern England ensures signal strength does not change over time. Summers during the late 20th century appear anomalously dry and those of the 21st century very close to the pre-20th century average with no evidence in the record of prolonged ‘megadroughts’ across England and Wales.
published_date 2020-08-01T04:07:50Z
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