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Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup

Mark Bennett, Neil Bezodis Orcid Logo, David Shearer, Liam Kilduff Orcid Logo, David Andrew Shearer Orcid Logo

European Journal of Sport Science, Volume: 21, Issue: 3, Pages: 312 - 320

Swansea University Authors: Mark Bennett, Neil Bezodis Orcid Logo, David Shearer, Liam Kilduff Orcid Logo, David Andrew Shearer Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1080/17461391.2020.1743764

Abstract

The primary aim of this paper was to produce a model that predicts outcome in the group-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup and to determine the relevance and importance of performance indicators (PIs) that are significant in predicting outcome. A secondary aim investigated whether this model accurate...

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Published in: European Journal of Sport Science
ISSN: 1746-1391 1536-7290
Published: Informa UK Limited 2021
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa53805
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A secondary aim investigated whether this model accurately predicted match outcome in the knockout-phase of the competition. Data was the PIs from the 40 group-phase games of the 2015 RWC. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using the data sets. The outcome of the knockout-phase was predicted using this model and accuracy of prediction of the model from the group-phase. The model indicated that thirteen PIs were significant in predicting match outcome in the group-phase and provided accurate prediction of match outcome in the knockout-phase. These PIs were tackle-ratio, clean breaks, average carry, lineouts won, penalties conceded, missed tackles, lineouts won in the opposition 22, defenders beaten, metres carried, kicks from hand, lineout success, penalties in opposition 22&#x2005;m and scrums won. For the group-phase matches tackle ratio, clean breaks and average carry were accurate standalone predictors of match outcome and respectively predicted 75%, 70% and 73% of match outcomes. The model based on the group-phase predicted correctly 7 from 8 (87.5%) knockout-phase matches. 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spelling 2023-03-14T09:36:14.9996162 v2 53805 2020-03-10 Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup bd632dd19f7ba6391670f261d0a5a242 Mark Bennett Mark Bennett true false 534588568c1936e94e1ed8527b8c991b 0000-0003-2229-3310 Neil Bezodis Neil Bezodis true false ff4da6c2e37b4f2bf3562235917be802 David Shearer David Shearer true false 972ed9a1dda7a0de20581a0f8350be98 0000-0001-9449-2293 Liam Kilduff Liam Kilduff true false 83ac3801b9e2d1fb72a1aa21e2090f22 NULL David Andrew Shearer David Andrew Shearer true true 2020-03-10 FGSEN The primary aim of this paper was to produce a model that predicts outcome in the group-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup and to determine the relevance and importance of performance indicators (PIs) that are significant in predicting outcome. A secondary aim investigated whether this model accurately predicted match outcome in the knockout-phase of the competition. Data was the PIs from the 40 group-phase games of the 2015 RWC. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using the data sets. The outcome of the knockout-phase was predicted using this model and accuracy of prediction of the model from the group-phase. The model indicated that thirteen PIs were significant in predicting match outcome in the group-phase and provided accurate prediction of match outcome in the knockout-phase. These PIs were tackle-ratio, clean breaks, average carry, lineouts won, penalties conceded, missed tackles, lineouts won in the opposition 22, defenders beaten, metres carried, kicks from hand, lineout success, penalties in opposition 22 m and scrums won. For the group-phase matches tackle ratio, clean breaks and average carry were accurate standalone predictors of match outcome and respectively predicted 75%, 70% and 73% of match outcomes. The model based on the group-phase predicted correctly 7 from 8 (87.5%) knockout-phase matches. In the knockout-phase clean breaks predicted 7 from 8 outcomes, whilst tackle ratio and average carry predicted 6 from 8 outcomes. Journal Article European Journal of Sport Science 21 3 312 320 Informa UK Limited 1746-1391 1536-7290 Rugby World Cup, random forest, performance indicators, LIME 4 3 2021 2021-03-04 10.1080/17461391.2020.1743764 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2020.1743764 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University 2023-03-14T09:36:14.9996162 2020-03-10T15:21:15.4283353 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Sport and Exercise Sciences Mark Bennett 1 Neil Bezodis 0000-0003-2229-3310 2 David Shearer 3 Liam Kilduff 0000-0001-9449-2293 4 David Andrew Shearer NULL 5 53805__16827__885863e30b1a4e8ca26e6a3322a937dc.pdf bennett2020.pdf 2020-03-10T15:24:14.1367416 Output 380952 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2021-03-14T00:00:00.0000000 true eng
title Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
spellingShingle Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
Mark Bennett
Neil Bezodis
David Shearer
Liam Kilduff
David Andrew Shearer
title_short Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
title_full Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
title_fullStr Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
title_full_unstemmed Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
title_sort Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
author_id_str_mv bd632dd19f7ba6391670f261d0a5a242
534588568c1936e94e1ed8527b8c991b
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83ac3801b9e2d1fb72a1aa21e2090f22
author_id_fullname_str_mv bd632dd19f7ba6391670f261d0a5a242_***_Mark Bennett
534588568c1936e94e1ed8527b8c991b_***_Neil Bezodis
ff4da6c2e37b4f2bf3562235917be802_***_David Shearer
972ed9a1dda7a0de20581a0f8350be98_***_Liam Kilduff
83ac3801b9e2d1fb72a1aa21e2090f22_***_David Andrew Shearer
author Mark Bennett
Neil Bezodis
David Shearer
Liam Kilduff
David Andrew Shearer
author2 Mark Bennett
Neil Bezodis
David Shearer
Liam Kilduff
David Andrew Shearer
format Journal article
container_title European Journal of Sport Science
container_volume 21
container_issue 3
container_start_page 312
publishDate 2021
institution Swansea University
issn 1746-1391
1536-7290
doi_str_mv 10.1080/17461391.2020.1743764
publisher Informa UK Limited
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Sport and Exercise Sciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Sport and Exercise Sciences
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17461391.2020.1743764
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description The primary aim of this paper was to produce a model that predicts outcome in the group-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup and to determine the relevance and importance of performance indicators (PIs) that are significant in predicting outcome. A secondary aim investigated whether this model accurately predicted match outcome in the knockout-phase of the competition. Data was the PIs from the 40 group-phase games of the 2015 RWC. Given the binary outcome (win/lose), a random forest classification model was built using the data sets. The outcome of the knockout-phase was predicted using this model and accuracy of prediction of the model from the group-phase. The model indicated that thirteen PIs were significant in predicting match outcome in the group-phase and provided accurate prediction of match outcome in the knockout-phase. These PIs were tackle-ratio, clean breaks, average carry, lineouts won, penalties conceded, missed tackles, lineouts won in the opposition 22, defenders beaten, metres carried, kicks from hand, lineout success, penalties in opposition 22 m and scrums won. For the group-phase matches tackle ratio, clean breaks and average carry were accurate standalone predictors of match outcome and respectively predicted 75%, 70% and 73% of match outcomes. The model based on the group-phase predicted correctly 7 from 8 (87.5%) knockout-phase matches. In the knockout-phase clean breaks predicted 7 from 8 outcomes, whilst tackle ratio and average carry predicted 6 from 8 outcomes.
published_date 2021-03-04T04:06:57Z
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score 11.013371

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