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A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics

Yunzhu Yin, Harshinie Karunarathna Orcid Logo, Dominic Reeve Orcid Logo

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Volume: 7, Issue: 12, Start page: 421

Swansea University Authors: Yunzhu Yin, Harshinie Karunarathna Orcid Logo, Dominic Reeve Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.3390/jmse7120421

Abstract

Global climate change drives sea level rise and changes to extreme weather events, which can affect morphodynamics of coastal and estuary systems around the world. In this paper, a 2D process-based numerical model is used to investigate the combined effects of future mean sea level and storm climate...

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Published in: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
ISSN: 2077-1312
Published: MDPI AG 2019
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa52864
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spelling 2021-08-18T15:47:41.0228644 v2 52864 2019-11-25 A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics 725d634fb4d71da026d14636b312aa4c Yunzhu Yin Yunzhu Yin true false 0d3d327a240d49b53c78e02b7c00e625 0000-0002-9087-3811 Harshinie Karunarathna Harshinie Karunarathna true false 3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082 0000-0003-1293-4743 Dominic Reeve Dominic Reeve true false 2019-11-25 FGSEN Global climate change drives sea level rise and changes to extreme weather events, which can affect morphodynamics of coastal and estuary systems around the world. In this paper, a 2D process-based numerical model is used to investigate the combined effects of future mean sea level and storm climate variabilities on morphological change of an estuary. Morphodynamically complex, meso-tidal Deben Estuary, located in the Suffolk at the east coast of the UK is selected as our case study site. This estuary has experienced very dynamic behaviors in history thus it might be sensitive to the future climate change. A statistical analysis of future storms around this area, derived from a global wave model, has shown a slight increase of storm wave heights and storm occurrences around the estuary in future as a result of global climate variations under medium emission scenario. By using a process-based model and by combining the forecast ‘end-of-century’ mean sea level with statistically derived storm conditions using projected storms over a time slice between 2075–2099, we determined hydrodynamic forcing for future morphodynamic modelling scenarios. It is found that the effect of increased sea level combined with future storms can significantly alter the current prevailing morphodynamic regime of the Deben Estuary thus driving it into a less stable system. It is also found that storm waves can be very significant to morphodynamic evolution of this tide-dominated estuary. Journal Article Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 7 12 421 MDPI AG 2077-1312 Deben Estuary; morphodynamics; numerical modelling; storm impacts; sea level rise; climate change 20 11 2019 2019-11-20 10.3390/jmse7120421 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University 2021-08-18T15:47:41.0228644 2019-11-25T11:15:26.2024463 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering Yunzhu Yin 1 Harshinie Karunarathna 0000-0002-9087-3811 2 Dominic Reeve 0000-0003-1293-4743 3 52864__15951__62762b0efb3b4a2b8831faac53fbee48.pdf yin2019.pdf 2019-11-25T11:16:36.8037976 Output 6044953 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2019 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics
spellingShingle A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics
Yunzhu Yin
Harshinie Karunarathna
Dominic Reeve
title_short A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics
title_full A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics
title_fullStr A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics
title_full_unstemmed A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics
title_sort A Computational Investigation of Storm Impacts on Estuary Morphodynamics
author_id_str_mv 725d634fb4d71da026d14636b312aa4c
0d3d327a240d49b53c78e02b7c00e625
3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082
author_id_fullname_str_mv 725d634fb4d71da026d14636b312aa4c_***_Yunzhu Yin
0d3d327a240d49b53c78e02b7c00e625_***_Harshinie Karunarathna
3e76fcc2bb3cde4ddee2c8edfd2f0082_***_Dominic Reeve
author Yunzhu Yin
Harshinie Karunarathna
Dominic Reeve
author2 Yunzhu Yin
Harshinie Karunarathna
Dominic Reeve
format Journal article
container_title Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
container_volume 7
container_issue 12
container_start_page 421
publishDate 2019
institution Swansea University
issn 2077-1312
doi_str_mv 10.3390/jmse7120421
publisher MDPI AG
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Civil Engineering
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Global climate change drives sea level rise and changes to extreme weather events, which can affect morphodynamics of coastal and estuary systems around the world. In this paper, a 2D process-based numerical model is used to investigate the combined effects of future mean sea level and storm climate variabilities on morphological change of an estuary. Morphodynamically complex, meso-tidal Deben Estuary, located in the Suffolk at the east coast of the UK is selected as our case study site. This estuary has experienced very dynamic behaviors in history thus it might be sensitive to the future climate change. A statistical analysis of future storms around this area, derived from a global wave model, has shown a slight increase of storm wave heights and storm occurrences around the estuary in future as a result of global climate variations under medium emission scenario. By using a process-based model and by combining the forecast ‘end-of-century’ mean sea level with statistically derived storm conditions using projected storms over a time slice between 2075–2099, we determined hydrodynamic forcing for future morphodynamic modelling scenarios. It is found that the effect of increased sea level combined with future storms can significantly alter the current prevailing morphodynamic regime of the Deben Estuary thus driving it into a less stable system. It is also found that storm waves can be very significant to morphodynamic evolution of this tide-dominated estuary.
published_date 2019-11-20T04:05:29Z
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