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Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!

Hany Abdel-Latif, Tapas Mishra, Anita Staneva, Hany Mohamed

Economies, Volume: 7, Issue: 1, Start page: 20

Swansea University Author: Hany Mohamed

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DOI (Published version): 10.3390/economies7010020

Abstract

We examine the role of democracy shocks in the cross-country economic growth processes over a period of five decades since 1960. The recent uprisings that arose independently and spread across the Arab world form the main context of our investigation. We study if (i) a shock to democracy in one coun...

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Published in: Economies
ISSN: 2227-7099
Published: 2019
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa48990
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first_indexed 2019-02-26T19:59:21Z
last_indexed 2019-07-23T21:31:27Z
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spelling 2019-07-23T14:50:32.3479838 v2 48990 2019-02-26 Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next! 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d Hany Mohamed Hany Mohamed true false 2019-02-26 We examine the role of democracy shocks in the cross-country economic growth processes over a period of five decades since 1960. The recent uprisings that arose independently and spread across the Arab world form the main context of our investigation. We study if (i) a shock to democracy in one country triggers institutional reforms and growth upsurge in the neighbouring countries, and (ii) the magnitude and direction of response to democracy shocks are contingent upon income pathways of countries. To estimate the spillover effects of democracy shocks, we model and estimate growth interdependence among individual countries with similar democratic characteristics. To study the nature of responses of democracy shocks on cross-country growth processes, we build and estimate a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model where we allow countries to be interdependent with regard to bilateral migration and geographical proximity. Using the GVAR model, we also stimulate a positive shock to democracy in Egypt - the most populous Arabic country - and study its impacts on institutional reforms and economic growth in the rest of the Arab World. We find that high and upper-middle income countries are immune to democracy shocks in Egypt, whereas the lower middle and low income countries are susceptible to another revolutionary wave. Journal Article Economies 7 1 20 2227-7099 Democracy Shocks; Arab Spring; Spatial growth interdependence; Global VAR; Democracy; Revolutionary wave 14 3 2019 2019-03-14 10.3390/economies7010020 https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/7/1/20 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University 2019-07-23T14:50:32.3479838 2019-02-26T13:36:00.2860074 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Management - Business Management Hany Abdel-Latif 1 Tapas Mishra 2 Anita Staneva 3 Hany Mohamed 4 0048990-25032019101208.pdf 48990.pdf 2019-03-25T10:12:08.1200000 Output 713894 application/pdf Version of Record true 2019-03-14T00:00:00.0000000 Released under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY). true eng
title Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!
spellingShingle Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!
Hany Mohamed
title_short Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!
title_full Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!
title_fullStr Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!
title_full_unstemmed Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!
title_sort Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!
author_id_str_mv 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d
author_id_fullname_str_mv 2930976ccf31ef0c71f78f7cb47e2d5d_***_Hany Mohamed
author Hany Mohamed
author2 Hany Abdel-Latif
Tapas Mishra
Anita Staneva
Hany Mohamed
format Journal article
container_title Economies
container_volume 7
container_issue 1
container_start_page 20
publishDate 2019
institution Swansea University
issn 2227-7099
doi_str_mv 10.3390/economies7010020
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Management - Business Management{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Management - Business Management
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/7/1/20
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description We examine the role of democracy shocks in the cross-country economic growth processes over a period of five decades since 1960. The recent uprisings that arose independently and spread across the Arab world form the main context of our investigation. We study if (i) a shock to democracy in one country triggers institutional reforms and growth upsurge in the neighbouring countries, and (ii) the magnitude and direction of response to democracy shocks are contingent upon income pathways of countries. To estimate the spillover effects of democracy shocks, we model and estimate growth interdependence among individual countries with similar democratic characteristics. To study the nature of responses of democracy shocks on cross-country growth processes, we build and estimate a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model where we allow countries to be interdependent with regard to bilateral migration and geographical proximity. Using the GVAR model, we also stimulate a positive shock to democracy in Egypt - the most populous Arabic country - and study its impacts on institutional reforms and economic growth in the rest of the Arab World. We find that high and upper-middle income countries are immune to democracy shocks in Egypt, whereas the lower middle and low income countries are susceptible to another revolutionary wave.
published_date 2019-03-14T03:59:43Z
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score 11.013619

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