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The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world

Qiang Yang, Mike Fowler Orcid Logo, Andrew L. Jackson, Ian Donohue

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Volume: 3, Issue: 2, Pages: 251 - 259

Swansea University Author: Mike Fowler Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1038/s41559-018-0794-x

Abstract

Random environmental variation, or stochasticity, is a key determinant of ecological dynamics. While we have some appreciation of how environmental stochasticity can moderate the variability and persistence of communities, we know little about its implications for the nature and predictability of ec...

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Published in: Nature Ecology & Evolution
ISSN: 2397-334X
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2019
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa48648
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first_indexed 2019-01-30T14:03:59Z
last_indexed 2020-11-13T04:01:14Z
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spelling 2020-11-12T17:53:14.9679096 v2 48648 2019-01-30 The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4 0000-0003-1544-0407 Mike Fowler Mike Fowler true false 2019-01-30 SBI Random environmental variation, or stochasticity, is a key determinant of ecological dynamics. While we have some appreciation of how environmental stochasticity can moderate the variability and persistence of communities, we know little about its implications for the nature and predictability of ecological responses to large perturbations. Here, we show that shifts in the temporal autocorrelation (colour) of environmental noise provoke trade-offs in ecological stability across a wide range of different food-web structures by stabilizing dynamics in some dimensions, while simultaneously destabilizing them in others. Specifically, increasingly positive autocorrelation (reddening) of environmental noise increases resilience by hastening the recovery of food webs following a large perturbation, but reduces their resistance to perturbation and increases their temporal variability (reduces biomass stability). In contrast, all stability dimensions become less predictable, showing increased variability around the mean response, as environmental noise reddens. Moreover, we found environmental reddening to be a considerably more important determinant of stability than intrinsic food-web characteristics. These findings reveal the fundamental and dominant role played by environmental stochasticity in determining the dynamics and stability of ecosystems, and extend our understanding of how the multiple dimensions of stability relate to each other beyond simple white noise environments. Journal Article Nature Ecology & Evolution 3 2 251 259 Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2397-334X 1 2 2019 2019-02-01 10.1038/s41559-018-0794-x COLLEGE NANME Biosciences COLLEGE CODE SBI Swansea University 2020-11-12T17:53:14.9679096 2019-01-30T12:03:43.2193618 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Qiang Yang 1 Mike Fowler 0000-0003-1544-0407 2 Andrew L. Jackson 3 Ian Donohue 4 0048648-01022019144844.pdf Yangetalv2.pdf 2019-02-01T14:48:44.6130000 Output 2979057 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2019-07-29T00:00:00.0000000 true eng
title The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world
spellingShingle The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world
Mike Fowler
title_short The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world
title_full The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world
title_fullStr The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world
title_full_unstemmed The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world
title_sort The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world
author_id_str_mv a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4
author_id_fullname_str_mv a3a29027498d4b43a3f082a0a5ba16b4_***_Mike Fowler
author Mike Fowler
author2 Qiang Yang
Mike Fowler
Andrew L. Jackson
Ian Donohue
format Journal article
container_title Nature Ecology & Evolution
container_volume 3
container_issue 2
container_start_page 251
publishDate 2019
institution Swansea University
issn 2397-334X
doi_str_mv 10.1038/s41559-018-0794-x
publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
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description Random environmental variation, or stochasticity, is a key determinant of ecological dynamics. While we have some appreciation of how environmental stochasticity can moderate the variability and persistence of communities, we know little about its implications for the nature and predictability of ecological responses to large perturbations. Here, we show that shifts in the temporal autocorrelation (colour) of environmental noise provoke trade-offs in ecological stability across a wide range of different food-web structures by stabilizing dynamics in some dimensions, while simultaneously destabilizing them in others. Specifically, increasingly positive autocorrelation (reddening) of environmental noise increases resilience by hastening the recovery of food webs following a large perturbation, but reduces their resistance to perturbation and increases their temporal variability (reduces biomass stability). In contrast, all stability dimensions become less predictable, showing increased variability around the mean response, as environmental noise reddens. Moreover, we found environmental reddening to be a considerably more important determinant of stability than intrinsic food-web characteristics. These findings reveal the fundamental and dominant role played by environmental stochasticity in determining the dynamics and stability of ecosystems, and extend our understanding of how the multiple dimensions of stability relate to each other beyond simple white noise environments.
published_date 2019-02-01T03:59:13Z
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score 11.037581

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