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Conference Paper/Proceeding/Abstract 1157 views 104 downloads

Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK

Sam Buxton Orcid Logo, Kostas Nikolopoulos, Marwan Khammash, Philip Stern

Swansea University Author: Sam Buxton Orcid Logo

Abstract

This paper is a case study on how pharmaceuticals are prescribed on the NHS in the UK. The paper discusses the modelling and forecasting of pharmaceutical life cycles, specifically around after the time of patent expiry. In this situation one of two things can occur the branded pharmaceutical sales...

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Published: 2013
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa43656
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spelling 2018-10-22T12:19:27.8508867 v2 43656 2018-09-03 Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK 27aacc6d5049c8d2c26495e4e6a6bd75 0000-0003-1007-7063 Sam Buxton Sam Buxton true false 2018-09-03 BBU This paper is a case study on how pharmaceuticals are prescribed on the NHS in the UK. The paper discusses the modelling and forecasting of pharmaceutical life cycles, specifically around after the time of patent expiry. In this situation one of two things can occur the branded pharmaceutical sales remain high while the generic are low, the alternative is when the branded drug declines and stays low while the sales of the generic drug are high.. Understanding the patterns of brand decline (and the associated generic growth) is increasingly important because in a market currently worth over £7bn in the UK, the number of new ‘blockbuster’ drugs continues to decline. As a result pharmaceutical companies make efforts to extend the commercial life of their brands, and the ability to forecast is important in this regard. Second, this paper provides insights for effective governance because the use of a branded drug (when a generic is available) results in wasted resources. Five methods are used to model and forecast these life cycles: Bass Diffusion, Repeat Purchase Diffusion Model (RPDM), Naïve, Exponential Smoothing and Moving Averages. The empirical evidence presented here suggests that the use of the Naïve model incorporating drift provided the most accurate and robust method of modelling both types of prescribing, with the more advanced models being less accurate. Conference Paper/Proceeding/Abstract Forecasting; Diffusion Models; Pharmaceutical Life cycles; Branded drugs; Generic drugs. 11 7 2013 2013-07-11 COLLEGE NANME Business COLLEGE CODE BBU Swansea University 2018-10-22T12:19:27.8508867 2018-09-03T11:05:19.8545166 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Management - Business Management Sam Buxton 0000-0003-1007-7063 1 Kostas Nikolopoulos 2 Marwan Khammash 3 Philip Stern 4 0043656-22102018121908.pdf IDSI13-presentation.pdf 2018-10-22T12:19:08.8270000 Output 577451 application/pdf Author's Original true 2018-10-22T00:00:00.0000000 true eng
title Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK
spellingShingle Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK
Sam Buxton
title_short Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK
title_full Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK
title_fullStr Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK
title_sort Forecasting Pharmaceutical Life Cycles: A case study of how drugs are prescribed in the NHS in the UK
author_id_str_mv 27aacc6d5049c8d2c26495e4e6a6bd75
author_id_fullname_str_mv 27aacc6d5049c8d2c26495e4e6a6bd75_***_Sam Buxton
author Sam Buxton
author2 Sam Buxton
Kostas Nikolopoulos
Marwan Khammash
Philip Stern
format Conference Paper/Proceeding/Abstract
publishDate 2013
institution Swansea University
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Management - Business Management{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Management - Business Management
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description This paper is a case study on how pharmaceuticals are prescribed on the NHS in the UK. The paper discusses the modelling and forecasting of pharmaceutical life cycles, specifically around after the time of patent expiry. In this situation one of two things can occur the branded pharmaceutical sales remain high while the generic are low, the alternative is when the branded drug declines and stays low while the sales of the generic drug are high.. Understanding the patterns of brand decline (and the associated generic growth) is increasingly important because in a market currently worth over £7bn in the UK, the number of new ‘blockbuster’ drugs continues to decline. As a result pharmaceutical companies make efforts to extend the commercial life of their brands, and the ability to forecast is important in this regard. Second, this paper provides insights for effective governance because the use of a branded drug (when a generic is available) results in wasted resources. Five methods are used to model and forecast these life cycles: Bass Diffusion, Repeat Purchase Diffusion Model (RPDM), Naïve, Exponential Smoothing and Moving Averages. The empirical evidence presented here suggests that the use of the Naïve model incorporating drift provided the most accurate and robust method of modelling both types of prescribing, with the more advanced models being less accurate.
published_date 2013-07-11T03:54:56Z
_version_ 1763752748609699840
score 11.013731

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