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Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level

Chris T. Perry, Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, Nicholas A. J. Graham, Peter J. Mumby, Shaun K. Wilson, Paul S. Kench, Derek P. Manzello, Kyle M. Morgan, Aimee B. A. Slangen, Damian P. Thomson, Fraser Januchowski-Hartley Orcid Logo, Scott G. Smithers, Robert S. Steneck, Renee Carlton, Evan N. Edinger, Ian C. Enochs, Nuria Estrada-Saldívar, Michael D. E. Haywood, Graham Kolodziej, Gary N. Murphy, Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes, Adam Suchley, Lauren Valentino, Robert Boenish, Margaret Wilson, Chancey Macdonald

Nature, Volume: 558, Issue: 7710, Pages: 396 - 400

Swansea University Author: Fraser Januchowski-Hartley Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z

Abstract

Water-depths above coral reefs is predicted to increase due to global sea-level rise (SLR). As ecological degradation inhibits the vertical accretion of coral reefs, it is likely that coastal wave exposure will increase but there currently exists a lack of data in projections concerning local rates...

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Published in: Nature
ISSN: 0028-0836 1476-4687
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2018
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa41093
first_indexed 2018-07-23T19:39:32Z
last_indexed 2024-11-14T11:50:20Z
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In this study we have aggregated ecological data of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs and calculated their vertical growth which we have then compared with recent and projected rates of SLR across different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. While many reefs currently show vertical growth that would be sufficient to keep-up with recent historic SLR, future projections under scenario RCP4.5 reveal that without substantial ecological recovery many reefs will not have the capacity to track SLR. Under RCP8.5, we predict that mean water depth will increase by over half a metre by 2100 across the majority of reefs. We found that coral cover strongly predicted whether a reef could track SLR, but that the majority of reefs had coral cover significantly lower than that required to prevent reef submergence. 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spelling 2023-06-23T17:52:14.0681523 v2 41093 2018-07-23 Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level 77e5e32d2047f69a621d6d810ff9299b 0000-0003-2468-8199 Fraser Januchowski-Hartley Fraser Januchowski-Hartley true false 2018-07-23 BGPS Water-depths above coral reefs is predicted to increase due to global sea-level rise (SLR). As ecological degradation inhibits the vertical accretion of coral reefs, it is likely that coastal wave exposure will increase but there currently exists a lack of data in projections concerning local rates of reef growth and local SLR. In this study we have aggregated ecological data of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs and calculated their vertical growth which we have then compared with recent and projected rates of SLR across different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. While many reefs currently show vertical growth that would be sufficient to keep-up with recent historic SLR, future projections under scenario RCP4.5 reveal that without substantial ecological recovery many reefs will not have the capacity to track SLR. Under RCP8.5, we predict that mean water depth will increase by over half a metre by 2100 across the majority of reefs. We found that coral cover strongly predicted whether a reef could track SLR, but that the majority of reefs had coral cover significantly lower than that required to prevent reef submergence. To limit reef submergence, and thus the impacts of waves and storms on adjacent coasts, climate mitigation and local impacts that reduce coral cover (e.g., local pollution and physical damage through development land reclamation) will be necessary. Journal Article Nature 558 7710 396 400 Springer Science and Business Media LLC 0028-0836 1476-4687 coral reef; climate change; sea level rise 21 6 2018 2018-06-21 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University 2023-06-23T17:52:14.0681523 2018-07-23T18:11:53.0305930 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences Chris T. Perry 1 Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip 2 Nicholas A. J. Graham 3 Peter J. Mumby 4 Shaun K. Wilson 5 Paul S. Kench 6 Derek P. Manzello 7 Kyle M. Morgan 8 Aimee B. A. Slangen 9 Damian P. Thomson 10 Fraser Januchowski-Hartley 0000-0003-2468-8199 11 Scott G. Smithers 12 Robert S. Steneck 13 Renee Carlton 14 Evan N. Edinger 15 Ian C. Enochs 16 Nuria Estrada-Saldívar 17 Michael D. E. Haywood 18 Graham Kolodziej 19 Gary N. Murphy 20 Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes 21 Adam Suchley 22 Lauren Valentino 23 Robert Boenish 24 Margaret Wilson 25 Chancey Macdonald 26 0041093-30072018094553.pdf Perryetal.Naturemerged-FINALSUBMITTED.pdf 2018-07-30T09:45:53.8330000 Output 1792564 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2018-12-14T00:00:00.0000000 true eng
title Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
spellingShingle Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
Fraser Januchowski-Hartley
title_short Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
title_full Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
title_fullStr Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
title_full_unstemmed Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
title_sort Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level
author_id_str_mv 77e5e32d2047f69a621d6d810ff9299b
author_id_fullname_str_mv 77e5e32d2047f69a621d6d810ff9299b_***_Fraser Januchowski-Hartley
author Fraser Januchowski-Hartley
author2 Chris T. Perry
Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip
Nicholas A. J. Graham
Peter J. Mumby
Shaun K. Wilson
Paul S. Kench
Derek P. Manzello
Kyle M. Morgan
Aimee B. A. Slangen
Damian P. Thomson
Fraser Januchowski-Hartley
Scott G. Smithers
Robert S. Steneck
Renee Carlton
Evan N. Edinger
Ian C. Enochs
Nuria Estrada-Saldívar
Michael D. E. Haywood
Graham Kolodziej
Gary N. Murphy
Esmeralda Pérez-Cervantes
Adam Suchley
Lauren Valentino
Robert Boenish
Margaret Wilson
Chancey Macdonald
format Journal article
container_title Nature
container_volume 558
container_issue 7710
container_start_page 396
publishDate 2018
institution Swansea University
issn 0028-0836
1476-4687
doi_str_mv 10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z
publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Biosciences
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description Water-depths above coral reefs is predicted to increase due to global sea-level rise (SLR). As ecological degradation inhibits the vertical accretion of coral reefs, it is likely that coastal wave exposure will increase but there currently exists a lack of data in projections concerning local rates of reef growth and local SLR. In this study we have aggregated ecological data of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs and calculated their vertical growth which we have then compared with recent and projected rates of SLR across different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. While many reefs currently show vertical growth that would be sufficient to keep-up with recent historic SLR, future projections under scenario RCP4.5 reveal that without substantial ecological recovery many reefs will not have the capacity to track SLR. Under RCP8.5, we predict that mean water depth will increase by over half a metre by 2100 across the majority of reefs. We found that coral cover strongly predicted whether a reef could track SLR, but that the majority of reefs had coral cover significantly lower than that required to prevent reef submergence. To limit reef submergence, and thus the impacts of waves and storms on adjacent coasts, climate mitigation and local impacts that reduce coral cover (e.g., local pollution and physical damage through development land reclamation) will be necessary.
published_date 2018-06-21T07:29:13Z
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score 11.364387

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