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North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium

Mary Gagen Orcid Logo, Eduardo Zorita, Danny McCarroll, Matthias Zahn, Giles Young, Iain Robertson Orcid Logo

Nature Geoscience, Volume: 9, Issue: 8, Pages: 630 - 635

Swansea University Authors: Mary Gagen Orcid Logo, Danny McCarroll, Giles Young, Iain Robertson Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1038/ngeo2752

Abstract

Certain large sustained anomalies in European temperatures in the last millennium do not match estimations of external climate forcing, and are likely the result of internal climate variations. Should these anomalies occur again in the future, they could be large enough to significantly modulate the...

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Published in: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 1752-0894 1752-0908
Published: Springer Science and Business Media LLC 2016
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa29427
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spelling 2020-12-16T12:29:44.7273147 v2 29427 2016-08-03 North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b 0000-0002-6820-6457 Mary Gagen Mary Gagen true false 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960 Danny McCarroll Danny McCarroll true false e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a Giles Young Giles Young true false ef8912c57e0140e9ecb2a69b7e34467e 0000-0001-7174-4523 Iain Robertson Iain Robertson true false 2016-08-03 SGE Certain large sustained anomalies in European temperatures in the last millennium do not match estimations of external climate forcing, and are likely the result of internal climate variations. Should these anomalies occur again in the future, they could be large enough to significantly modulate the response of European temperatures from the expected response to greenhouse forcing. Here, we use temperature observations, simulations and reconstructions over the past millennium to show that, whilst continental multidecadal mean summer temperature has varied within a span of 1K and is primarily controlled by external forcing, subcontinental deviations from the mean, described by the temperature contrast between northern and south Europe (the meridional temperature gradient, MTG), vary within a span of 2K (simulation estimated) and are primarily controlled by internal climatic processes. These processes comprise internally generated redistributions of precipitation and cloud cover that are linked to vacillations in the position of the summer storm track. In contrast to the 20th century, the summer storm-track has varied stochastically over the past millennium, with a weak response to external forcing. The future response of European summer temperatures to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is likely to be spatially modulated by stochastic internal processes which have caused cool, damp summers in northern Europe over multiple periods of the last millennium, and over the last two decades. Journal Article Nature Geoscience 9 8 630 635 Springer Science and Business Media LLC 1752-0894 1752-0908 climate change, palaeoclimate, climate modelling, dendroclimatology. 1 8 2016 2016-08-01 10.1038/ngeo2752 COLLEGE NANME Geography COLLEGE CODE SGE Swansea University 2020-12-16T12:29:44.7273147 2016-08-03T18:53:42.5177172 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Mary Gagen 0000-0002-6820-6457 1 Eduardo Zorita 2 Danny McCarroll 3 Matthias Zahn 4 Giles Young 5 Iain Robertson 0000-0001-7174-4523 6 0029427-15112017143542.pdf gagenetalnatgeo2016.pdf 2017-11-15T14:35:42.8700000 Output 208296 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2017-11-15T00:00:00.0000000 true eng
title North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium
spellingShingle North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium
Mary Gagen
Danny McCarroll
Giles Young
Iain Robertson
title_short North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium
title_full North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium
title_fullStr North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium
title_full_unstemmed North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium
title_sort North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium
author_id_str_mv e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b
6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960
e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a
ef8912c57e0140e9ecb2a69b7e34467e
author_id_fullname_str_mv e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b_***_Mary Gagen
6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960_***_Danny McCarroll
e0c807e6b9b663f1c297feecd2f54c3a_***_Giles Young
ef8912c57e0140e9ecb2a69b7e34467e_***_Iain Robertson
author Mary Gagen
Danny McCarroll
Giles Young
Iain Robertson
author2 Mary Gagen
Eduardo Zorita
Danny McCarroll
Matthias Zahn
Giles Young
Iain Robertson
format Journal article
container_title Nature Geoscience
container_volume 9
container_issue 8
container_start_page 630
publishDate 2016
institution Swansea University
issn 1752-0894
1752-0908
doi_str_mv 10.1038/ngeo2752
publisher Springer Science and Business Media LLC
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
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hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
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description Certain large sustained anomalies in European temperatures in the last millennium do not match estimations of external climate forcing, and are likely the result of internal climate variations. Should these anomalies occur again in the future, they could be large enough to significantly modulate the response of European temperatures from the expected response to greenhouse forcing. Here, we use temperature observations, simulations and reconstructions over the past millennium to show that, whilst continental multidecadal mean summer temperature has varied within a span of 1K and is primarily controlled by external forcing, subcontinental deviations from the mean, described by the temperature contrast between northern and south Europe (the meridional temperature gradient, MTG), vary within a span of 2K (simulation estimated) and are primarily controlled by internal climatic processes. These processes comprise internally generated redistributions of precipitation and cloud cover that are linked to vacillations in the position of the summer storm track. In contrast to the 20th century, the summer storm-track has varied stochastically over the past millennium, with a weak response to external forcing. The future response of European summer temperatures to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is likely to be spatially modulated by stochastic internal processes which have caused cool, damp summers in northern Europe over multiple periods of the last millennium, and over the last two decades.
published_date 2016-08-01T03:35:47Z
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