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Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers

Igor Sazonov Orcid Logo, Mark Kelbert, Michael Gravenor Orcid Logo

Mathematical Biosciences, Volume: 274, Pages: 45 - 57

Swansea University Authors: Igor Sazonov Orcid Logo, Michael Gravenor Orcid Logo

DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.011

Abstract

We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of...

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Published in: Mathematical Biosciences
Published: 2016
Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556416000225
URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa26751
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first_indexed 2016-03-15T02:01:44Z
last_indexed 2018-02-09T05:09:04Z
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spelling 2018-01-19T18:30:45.3912929 v2 26751 2016-03-14 Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers 05a507952e26462561085fb6f62c8897 0000-0001-6685-2351 Igor Sazonov Igor Sazonov true false 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6 0000-0003-0710-0947 Michael Gravenor Michael Gravenor true false 2016-03-14 AERO We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Journal Article Mathematical Biosciences 274 45 57 Epidemic modeling; Population dynamics; Markov chains; Stochastic processes; Network interactions 30 4 2016 2016-04-30 10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.011 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556416000225 COLLEGE NANME Aerospace Engineering COLLEGE CODE AERO Swansea University 2018-01-19T18:30:45.3912929 2016-03-14T17:13:29.5830444 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Aerospace Engineering Igor Sazonov 0000-0001-6685-2351 1 Mark Kelbert 2 Michael Gravenor 0000-0003-0710-0947 3 0026751-14032016171429.pdf SazonovRandomMigrationProcesses2016AM.pdf 2016-03-14T17:14:29.4730000 Output 818429 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true 2017-02-11T00:00:00.0000000 true
title Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
spellingShingle Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
Igor Sazonov
Michael Gravenor
title_short Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
title_full Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
title_fullStr Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
title_full_unstemmed Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
title_sort Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers
author_id_str_mv 05a507952e26462561085fb6f62c8897
70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6
author_id_fullname_str_mv 05a507952e26462561085fb6f62c8897_***_Igor Sazonov
70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6_***_Michael Gravenor
author Igor Sazonov
Michael Gravenor
author2 Igor Sazonov
Mark Kelbert
Michael Gravenor
format Journal article
container_title Mathematical Biosciences
container_volume 274
container_start_page 45
publishDate 2016
institution Swansea University
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.mbs.2016.01.011
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Aerospace Engineering{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Aerospace, Civil, Electrical, General and Mechanical Engineering - Aerospace Engineering
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025556416000225
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically.
published_date 2016-04-30T03:32:12Z
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score 11.01409

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