European summer temperatures since Roman times

Luterbacher, J; Werner, J P; Smerdon, J E; Fernández-Donado, L; González-Rouco, F J; Barriopedro, D; Ljungqvist, F C; Büntgen, U; Zorita, E; Wagner, S; Esper, J; McCarroll, Danny; Toreti, A; Frank, D; Jungclaus, J H; Barriendos, M; Bertolin, C; Bothe, O; Brázdil, R; Camuffo, D; Dobrovolný, P; Gagen, Mary; García-Bustamante, E; Ge, Q; Gómez-Navarro, J J; Guiot, J; Hao, Z; Hegerl, G C; Holmgren, K; Klimenko, V V; Martín-Chivelet, J; Pfister, C; Roberts, N; Schindler, A; Schurer, A; Solomina, O; Gunten, L von; Wahl, E; Wanner, H; Wetter, O; Xoplaki, E; Yuan, N; Zanchettin, D; Zhang, H; Zerefos, C

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001

Journal article 1745 views 127 downloads

European summer temperatures since Roman times

J Luterbacher, J P Werner, J E Smerdon, L Fernández-Donado, F J González-Rouco, D Barriopedro, F C Ljungqvist, U Büntgen, E Zorita, S Wagner, J Esper, Danny McCarroll, A Toreti, D Frank, J H Jungclaus, M Barriendos, C Bertolin, O Bothe, R Brázdil, D Camuffo, P Dobrovolný, Mary Gagen

, E García-Bustamante, Q Ge, J J Gómez-Navarro, J Guiot, Z Hao, G C Hegerl, K Holmgren, V V Klimenko, J Martín-Chivelet, C Pfister, N Roberts, A Schindler, A Schurer, O Solomina, L von Gunten, E Wahl, H Wanner, O Wetter, E Xoplaki, N Yuan, D Zanchettin, H Zhang, C Zerefos

Environmental Research Letters, Volume: 11, Issue: 2, Start page: 024001

Swansea University Authors: Danny McCarroll, Mary Gagen

PDF | Version of Record

Released under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence
Download (2.48MB)

Check full text

DOI (Published version): 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001

Abstract

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new recons...

Full description

Published in:	Environmental Research Letters
ISSN:	1748-9326
Published:	IOP Publishing 2016
Online Access:	Check full text
URI:	https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa26423
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

first_indexed	2016-02-22T12:59:37Z
last_indexed	2020-12-17T03:41:36Z
id	cronfa26423
recordtype	SURis
fullrecord	<?xml version="1.0"?><rfc1807><datestamp>2020-12-16T16:42:32.2756154</datestamp><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>26423</id><entry>2016-02-18</entry><title>European summer temperatures since Roman times</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960</sid><firstname>Danny</firstname><surname>McCarroll</surname><name>Danny McCarroll</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author><author><sid>e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b</sid><ORCID>0000-0002-6820-6457</ORCID><firstname>Mary</firstname><surname>Gagen</surname><name>Mary Gagen</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2016-02-18</date><deptcode>FGSEN</deptcode><abstract>The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. We provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer temperature fields back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on Composite-plus-Scaling. Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and Little Ice Age are larger in reconstructions than simulations. This may indicate either inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity to external forcing on sub-hemispheric scales in the climate models and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales including the representation of internal feedback mechanisms.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>Environmental Research Letters</journal><volume>11</volume><journalNumber>2</journalNumber><paginationStart>024001</paginationStart><paginationEnd/><publisher>IOP Publishing</publisher><placeOfPublication/><isbnPrint/><isbnElectronic/><issnPrint/><issnElectronic>1748-9326</issnElectronic><keywords/><publishedDay>1</publishedDay><publishedMonth>2</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2016</publishedYear><publishedDate>2016-02-01</publishedDate><doi>10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001</doi><url/><notes/><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Science and Engineering - Faculty</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>FGSEN</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2020-12-16T16:42:32.2756154</lastEdited><Created>2016-02-18T12:25:46.0401165</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Science and Engineering</level><level id="2">School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography</level></path><authors><author><firstname>J</firstname><surname>Luterbacher</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>J P</firstname><surname>Werner</surname><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>J E</firstname><surname>Smerdon</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>L</firstname><surname>Fernández-Donado</surname><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>F J</firstname><surname>González-Rouco</surname><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>D</firstname><surname>Barriopedro</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>F C</firstname><surname>Ljungqvist</surname><order>7</order></author><author><firstname>U</firstname><surname>Büntgen</surname><order>8</order></author><author><firstname>E</firstname><surname>Zorita</surname><order>9</order></author><author><firstname>S</firstname><surname>Wagner</surname><order>10</order></author><author><firstname>J</firstname><surname>Esper</surname><order>11</order></author><author><firstname>Danny</firstname><surname>McCarroll</surname><order>12</order></author><author><firstname>A</firstname><surname>Toreti</surname><order>13</order></author><author><firstname>D</firstname><surname>Frank</surname><order>14</order></author><author><firstname>J H</firstname><surname>Jungclaus</surname><order>15</order></author><author><firstname>M</firstname><surname>Barriendos</surname><order>16</order></author><author><firstname>C</firstname><surname>Bertolin</surname><order>17</order></author><author><firstname>O</firstname><surname>Bothe</surname><order>18</order></author><author><firstname>R</firstname><surname>Brázdil</surname><order>19</order></author><author><firstname>D</firstname><surname>Camuffo</surname><order>20</order></author><author><firstname>P</firstname><surname>Dobrovolný</surname><order>21</order></author><author><firstname>Mary</firstname><surname>Gagen</surname><orcid>0000-0002-6820-6457</orcid><order>22</order></author><author><firstname>E</firstname><surname>García-Bustamante</surname><order>23</order></author><author><firstname>Q</firstname><surname>Ge</surname><order>24</order></author><author><firstname>J J</firstname><surname>Gómez-Navarro</surname><order>25</order></author><author><firstname>J</firstname><surname>Guiot</surname><order>26</order></author><author><firstname>Z</firstname><surname>Hao</surname><order>27</order></author><author><firstname>G C</firstname><surname>Hegerl</surname><order>28</order></author><author><firstname>K</firstname><surname>Holmgren</surname><order>29</order></author><author><firstname>V V</firstname><surname>Klimenko</surname><order>30</order></author><author><firstname>J</firstname><surname>Martín-Chivelet</surname><order>31</order></author><author><firstname>C</firstname><surname>Pfister</surname><order>32</order></author><author><firstname>N</firstname><surname>Roberts</surname><order>33</order></author><author><firstname>A</firstname><surname>Schindler</surname><order>34</order></author><author><firstname>A</firstname><surname>Schurer</surname><order>35</order></author><author><firstname>O</firstname><surname>Solomina</surname><order>36</order></author><author><firstname>L von</firstname><surname>Gunten</surname><order>37</order></author><author><firstname>E</firstname><surname>Wahl</surname><order>38</order></author><author><firstname>H</firstname><surname>Wanner</surname><order>39</order></author><author><firstname>O</firstname><surname>Wetter</surname><order>40</order></author><author><firstname>E</firstname><surname>Xoplaki</surname><order>41</order></author><author><firstname>N</firstname><surname>Yuan</surname><order>42</order></author><author><firstname>D</firstname><surname>Zanchettin</surname><order>43</order></author><author><firstname>H</firstname><surname>Zhang</surname><order>44</order></author><author><firstname>C</firstname><surname>Zerefos</surname><order>45</order></author></authors><documents><document><filename>26423__18671__c9f397d8505742189de4f4f3e0385c44.pdf</filename><originalFilename>26423.pdf</originalFilename><uploaded>2020-11-16T16:13:37.0327528</uploaded><type>Output</type><contentLength>2604445</contentLength><contentType>application/pdf</contentType><version>Version of Record</version><cronfaStatus>true</cronfaStatus><documentNotes>Released under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence</documentNotes><copyrightCorrect>true</copyrightCorrect><language>eng</language><licence>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0</licence></document></documents><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling	2020-12-16T16:42:32.2756154 v2 26423 2016-02-18 European summer temperatures since Roman times 6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960 Danny McCarroll Danny McCarroll true false e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b 0000-0002-6820-6457 Mary Gagen Mary Gagen true false 2016-02-18 FGSEN The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. We provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer temperature fields back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on Composite-plus-Scaling. Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and Little Ice Age are larger in reconstructions than simulations. This may indicate either inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity to external forcing on sub-hemispheric scales in the climate models and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales including the representation of internal feedback mechanisms. Journal Article Environmental Research Letters 11 2 024001 IOP Publishing 1748-9326 1 2 2016 2016-02-01 10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University 2020-12-16T16:42:32.2756154 2016-02-18T12:25:46.0401165 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography J Luterbacher 1 J P Werner 2 J E Smerdon 3 L Fernández-Donado 4 F J González-Rouco 5 D Barriopedro 6 F C Ljungqvist 7 U Büntgen 8 E Zorita 9 S Wagner 10 J Esper 11 Danny McCarroll 12 A Toreti 13 D Frank 14 J H Jungclaus 15 M Barriendos 16 C Bertolin 17 O Bothe 18 R Brázdil 19 D Camuffo 20 P Dobrovolný 21 Mary Gagen 0000-0002-6820-6457 22 E García-Bustamante 23 Q Ge 24 J J Gómez-Navarro 25 J Guiot 26 Z Hao 27 G C Hegerl 28 K Holmgren 29 V V Klimenko 30 J Martín-Chivelet 31 C Pfister 32 N Roberts 33 A Schindler 34 A Schurer 35 O Solomina 36 L von Gunten 37 E Wahl 38 H Wanner 39 O Wetter 40 E Xoplaki 41 N Yuan 42 D Zanchettin 43 H Zhang 44 C Zerefos 45 26423__18671__c9f397d8505742189de4f4f3e0385c44.pdf 26423.pdf 2020-11-16T16:13:37.0327528 Output 2604445 application/pdf Version of Record true Released under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0
title	European summer temperatures since Roman times
spellingShingle	European summer temperatures since Roman times Danny McCarroll Mary Gagen
title_short	European summer temperatures since Roman times
title_full	European summer temperatures since Roman times
title_fullStr	European summer temperatures since Roman times
title_full_unstemmed	European summer temperatures since Roman times
title_sort	European summer temperatures since Roman times
author_id_str_mv	6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960 e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b
author_id_fullname_str_mv	6d181d926aaac8932c2bfa8d0e7f6960_*_Danny McCarroll e677a6d0777aed90ac1eca8937e43d2b_*_Mary Gagen
author	Danny McCarroll Mary Gagen
author2	J Luterbacher J P Werner J E Smerdon L Fernández-Donado F J González-Rouco D Barriopedro F C Ljungqvist U Büntgen E Zorita S Wagner J Esper Danny McCarroll A Toreti D Frank J H Jungclaus M Barriendos C Bertolin O Bothe R Brázdil D Camuffo P Dobrovolný Mary Gagen E García-Bustamante Q Ge J J Gómez-Navarro J Guiot Z Hao G C Hegerl K Holmgren V V Klimenko J Martín-Chivelet C Pfister N Roberts A Schindler A Schurer O Solomina L von Gunten E Wahl H Wanner O Wetter E Xoplaki N Yuan D Zanchettin H Zhang C Zerefos
format	Journal article
container_title	Environmental Research Letters
container_volume	11
container_issue	2
container_start_page	024001
publishDate	2016
institution	Swansea University
issn	1748-9326
doi_str_mv	10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001
publisher	IOP Publishing
college_str	Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id	facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title	Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id	facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title	Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str	School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
document_store_str	1
active_str	0
description	The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. We provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer temperature fields back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on Composite-plus-Scaling. Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and Little Ice Age are larger in reconstructions than simulations. This may indicate either inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity to external forcing on sub-hemispheric scales in the climate models and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales including the representation of internal feedback mechanisms.
published_date	2016-02-01T03:31:42Z
_version_	1763751286369419264
score	11.0372095

European summer temperatures since Roman times

Similar Items