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Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data

Phillip Jones, David Gunnell, Stephen Platt, Jonathan Scourfield, Keith Lloyd Orcid Logo, Peter Huxley, Ann John Orcid Logo, Babar Kamran, Claudia Wells, Michael Dennis, Philip Jones

PLoS ONE, Volume: 8, Issue: 8, Start page: e71713

Swansea University Authors: Keith Lloyd Orcid Logo, Ann John Orcid Logo, Michael Dennis, Philip Jones

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DOI (Published version): 10.1371/journal.pone.0071713

Abstract

BackgroundUp to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates t...

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Published in: PLoS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
Published: 2013
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa15619
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fullrecord <?xml version="1.0"?><rfc1807><datestamp>2014-11-03T10:28:06.8391274</datestamp><bib-version>v2</bib-version><id>15619</id><entry>2013-08-22</entry><title>Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data</title><swanseaauthors><author><sid>a13aaa0df9045c205e82ed3b95d18c10</sid><ORCID>0000-0002-1440-4124</ORCID><firstname>Keith</firstname><surname>Lloyd</surname><name>Keith Lloyd</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author><author><sid>ed8a9c37bd7b7235b762d941ef18ee55</sid><ORCID>0000-0002-5657-6995</ORCID><firstname>Ann</firstname><surname>John</surname><name>Ann John</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author><author><sid>e2fb156498bd28a936b34e986dfa01b7</sid><firstname>Michael</firstname><surname>Dennis</surname><name>Michael Dennis</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author><author><sid>d027a977d6f2a2c90f9d7ff49e1ae288</sid><ORCID/><firstname>Philip</firstname><surname>Jones</surname><name>Philip Jones</name><active>true</active><ethesisStudent>false</ethesisStudent></author></swanseaauthors><date>2013-08-22</date><deptcode>FGMHL</deptcode><abstract>BackgroundUp to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits. Methods and findingsThe analysis is based on official mortality statistics for Wales for 2000-2009 provided by the UK&#x2019;s Office for National Statistics (ONS). Temporo-spatial analysis was performed using Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics with SaTScan v9.1 for suicide deaths aged 15 and over, with a sub-group analysis focussing on cases aged 15-34 years. These analyses were conducted for deaths coded by ONS as: (i) suicide or of undetermined intent (probable suicides) and (ii) for a combination of suicide, undetermined, and accidental poisoning and hanging (possible suicides).The temporo-spatial analysis did not identify any clusters of suicide or undetermined intent deaths (probable suicides). However, analysis of all deaths by suicide, undetermined intent, accidental poisoning and accidental hanging (possible suicides) identified a temporo-spatial cluster (p = 0.029) involving 10 deaths amongst 15-34 year olds centred on the County Borough of Bridgend for the period 27th December 2007 to 19th February 2008. Less than 1% of possible suicides in younger people in Wales in the ten year period were identified as being cluster-related. ConclusionsThere was a possible suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend between December 2007 and February 2008 . This cluster was smaller, shorter in duration, and predominantly later than the phenomenon that was reported in national and international print media. Further investigation of factors leading to the onset and termination of this series of deaths, in particular the role of the media, is required.</abstract><type>Journal Article</type><journal>PLoS ONE</journal><volume>8</volume><journalNumber>8</journalNumber><paginationStart>e71713</paginationStart><publisher/><issnPrint>1932-6203</issnPrint><issnElectronic/><keywords/><publishedDay>31</publishedDay><publishedMonth>12</publishedMonth><publishedYear>2013</publishedYear><publishedDate>2013-12-31</publishedDate><doi>10.1371/journal.pone.0071713</doi><url>http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0071713</url><notes></notes><college>COLLEGE NANME</college><department>Medicine, Health and Life Science - Faculty</department><CollegeCode>COLLEGE CODE</CollegeCode><DepartmentCode>FGMHL</DepartmentCode><institution>Swansea University</institution><apcterm/><lastEdited>2014-11-03T10:28:06.8391274</lastEdited><Created>2013-08-22T12:05:48.1553717</Created><path><level id="1">Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences</level><level id="2">Swansea University Medical School - Medicine</level></path><authors><author><firstname>Phillip</firstname><surname>Jones</surname><order>1</order></author><author><firstname>David</firstname><surname>Gunnell</surname><order>2</order></author><author><firstname>Stephen</firstname><surname>Platt</surname><order>3</order></author><author><firstname>Jonathan</firstname><surname>Scourfield</surname><order>4</order></author><author><firstname>Keith</firstname><surname>Lloyd</surname><orcid>0000-0002-1440-4124</orcid><order>5</order></author><author><firstname>Peter</firstname><surname>Huxley</surname><order>6</order></author><author><firstname>Ann</firstname><surname>John</surname><orcid>0000-0002-5657-6995</orcid><order>7</order></author><author><firstname>Babar</firstname><surname>Kamran</surname><order>8</order></author><author><firstname>Claudia</firstname><surname>Wells</surname><order>9</order></author><author><firstname>Michael</firstname><surname>Dennis</surname><order>10</order></author><author><firstname>Philip</firstname><surname>Jones</surname><orcid/><order>11</order></author></authors><documents/><OutputDurs/></rfc1807>
spelling 2014-11-03T10:28:06.8391274 v2 15619 2013-08-22 Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data a13aaa0df9045c205e82ed3b95d18c10 0000-0002-1440-4124 Keith Lloyd Keith Lloyd true false ed8a9c37bd7b7235b762d941ef18ee55 0000-0002-5657-6995 Ann John Ann John true false e2fb156498bd28a936b34e986dfa01b7 Michael Dennis Michael Dennis true false d027a977d6f2a2c90f9d7ff49e1ae288 Philip Jones Philip Jones true false 2013-08-22 FGMHL BackgroundUp to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits. Methods and findingsThe analysis is based on official mortality statistics for Wales for 2000-2009 provided by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). Temporo-spatial analysis was performed using Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics with SaTScan v9.1 for suicide deaths aged 15 and over, with a sub-group analysis focussing on cases aged 15-34 years. These analyses were conducted for deaths coded by ONS as: (i) suicide or of undetermined intent (probable suicides) and (ii) for a combination of suicide, undetermined, and accidental poisoning and hanging (possible suicides).The temporo-spatial analysis did not identify any clusters of suicide or undetermined intent deaths (probable suicides). However, analysis of all deaths by suicide, undetermined intent, accidental poisoning and accidental hanging (possible suicides) identified a temporo-spatial cluster (p = 0.029) involving 10 deaths amongst 15-34 year olds centred on the County Borough of Bridgend for the period 27th December 2007 to 19th February 2008. Less than 1% of possible suicides in younger people in Wales in the ten year period were identified as being cluster-related. ConclusionsThere was a possible suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend between December 2007 and February 2008 . This cluster was smaller, shorter in duration, and predominantly later than the phenomenon that was reported in national and international print media. Further investigation of factors leading to the onset and termination of this series of deaths, in particular the role of the media, is required. Journal Article PLoS ONE 8 8 e71713 1932-6203 31 12 2013 2013-12-31 10.1371/journal.pone.0071713 http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0071713 COLLEGE NANME Medicine, Health and Life Science - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGMHL Swansea University 2014-11-03T10:28:06.8391274 2013-08-22T12:05:48.1553717 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Swansea University Medical School - Medicine Phillip Jones 1 David Gunnell 2 Stephen Platt 3 Jonathan Scourfield 4 Keith Lloyd 0000-0002-1440-4124 5 Peter Huxley 6 Ann John 0000-0002-5657-6995 7 Babar Kamran 8 Claudia Wells 9 Michael Dennis 10 Philip Jones 11
title Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data
spellingShingle Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data
Keith Lloyd
Ann John
Michael Dennis
Philip Jones
title_short Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data
title_full Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data
title_fullStr Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data
title_full_unstemmed Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data
title_sort Identifying Probable Suicide Clusters in Wales Using National Mortality Data
author_id_str_mv a13aaa0df9045c205e82ed3b95d18c10
ed8a9c37bd7b7235b762d941ef18ee55
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d027a977d6f2a2c90f9d7ff49e1ae288
author_id_fullname_str_mv a13aaa0df9045c205e82ed3b95d18c10_***_Keith Lloyd
ed8a9c37bd7b7235b762d941ef18ee55_***_Ann John
e2fb156498bd28a936b34e986dfa01b7_***_Michael Dennis
d027a977d6f2a2c90f9d7ff49e1ae288_***_Philip Jones
author Keith Lloyd
Ann John
Michael Dennis
Philip Jones
author2 Phillip Jones
David Gunnell
Stephen Platt
Jonathan Scourfield
Keith Lloyd
Peter Huxley
Ann John
Babar Kamran
Claudia Wells
Michael Dennis
Philip Jones
format Journal article
container_title PLoS ONE
container_volume 8
container_issue 8
container_start_page e71713
publishDate 2013
institution Swansea University
issn 1932-6203
doi_str_mv 10.1371/journal.pone.0071713
college_str Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
department_str Swansea University Medical School - Medicine{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences{{{_:::_}}}Swansea University Medical School - Medicine
url http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0071713
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description BackgroundUp to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits. Methods and findingsThe analysis is based on official mortality statistics for Wales for 2000-2009 provided by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). Temporo-spatial analysis was performed using Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics with SaTScan v9.1 for suicide deaths aged 15 and over, with a sub-group analysis focussing on cases aged 15-34 years. These analyses were conducted for deaths coded by ONS as: (i) suicide or of undetermined intent (probable suicides) and (ii) for a combination of suicide, undetermined, and accidental poisoning and hanging (possible suicides).The temporo-spatial analysis did not identify any clusters of suicide or undetermined intent deaths (probable suicides). However, analysis of all deaths by suicide, undetermined intent, accidental poisoning and accidental hanging (possible suicides) identified a temporo-spatial cluster (p = 0.029) involving 10 deaths amongst 15-34 year olds centred on the County Borough of Bridgend for the period 27th December 2007 to 19th February 2008. Less than 1% of possible suicides in younger people in Wales in the ten year period were identified as being cluster-related. ConclusionsThere was a possible suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend between December 2007 and February 2008 . This cluster was smaller, shorter in duration, and predominantly later than the phenomenon that was reported in national and international print media. Further investigation of factors leading to the onset and termination of this series of deaths, in particular the role of the media, is required.
published_date 2013-12-31T03:17:45Z
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