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Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models

Qing-Ping Zou, Yongping Chen, Ian Cluckie, Richard Hewston, Shunqi Pan, Zhong Peng, Dominic Reeve

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume: 139, Issue: 671, Pages: 298 - 313

Swansea University Author: Ian Cluckie

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DOI (Published version): 10.1002/qj.2078

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated ‘Clouds-to-Coast’ ensemble modelling framework of coastal flood risk due to wave overtopping. The modelling framework consists of four key components: meteorological forecasts, wave–tide–surge predictions, nearshore wave models and surf zone models. This type of ens...

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Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
ISSN: 0035-9009
Published: 2013
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa15567
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first_indexed 2013-08-22T01:58:00Z
last_indexed 2018-02-09T04:47:31Z
id cronfa15567
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spelling 2013-10-01T12:54:19.3181023 v2 15567 2013-08-20 Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models d801af52a3cfb625308bd4301583064e Ian Cluckie Ian Cluckie true false 2013-08-20 FGSEN This paper presents an integrated ‘Clouds-to-Coast’ ensemble modelling framework of coastal flood risk due to wave overtopping. The modelling framework consists of four key components: meteorological forecasts, wave–tide–surge predictions, nearshore wave models and surf zone models. This type of ensemble prediction approach allows us to estimate the probabilities of various outcomes and so improve our understanding of the reliability of results. It also provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with predictions, which can be particularly large for extreme storms, and allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological forecasts to overtopping and subsequent coastal flood risk predictions. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society Journal Article Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139 671 298 313 0035-9009 Coastal Flood Risk, Ensembles, Model Cascades 1 1 2013 2013-01-01 10.1002/qj.2078 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University 2013-10-01T12:54:19.3181023 2013-08-20T14:16:00.7496069 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised Qing-Ping Zou 1 Yongping Chen 2 Ian Cluckie 3 Richard Hewston 4 Shunqi Pan 5 Zhong Peng 6 Dominic Reeve 7
title Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models
spellingShingle Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models
Ian Cluckie
title_short Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models
title_full Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models
title_fullStr Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models
title_full_unstemmed Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models
title_sort Ensemble prediction of coastal flood risk arising from overtopping by linking meteorological, ocean, coastal and surf zone models
author_id_str_mv d801af52a3cfb625308bd4301583064e
author_id_fullname_str_mv d801af52a3cfb625308bd4301583064e_***_Ian Cluckie
author Ian Cluckie
author2 Qing-Ping Zou
Yongping Chen
Ian Cluckie
Richard Hewston
Shunqi Pan
Zhong Peng
Dominic Reeve
format Journal article
container_title Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
container_volume 139
container_issue 671
container_start_page 298
publishDate 2013
institution Swansea University
issn 0035-9009
doi_str_mv 10.1002/qj.2078
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description This paper presents an integrated ‘Clouds-to-Coast’ ensemble modelling framework of coastal flood risk due to wave overtopping. The modelling framework consists of four key components: meteorological forecasts, wave–tide–surge predictions, nearshore wave models and surf zone models. This type of ensemble prediction approach allows us to estimate the probabilities of various outcomes and so improve our understanding of the reliability of results. It also provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with predictions, which can be particularly large for extreme storms, and allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological forecasts to overtopping and subsequent coastal flood risk predictions. Copyright © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society
published_date 2013-01-01T03:17:43Z
_version_ 1763750406436945920
score 11.037581

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