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Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change

E. J Stone, D. J Lunt, I. C Rutt, E Hanna, Ian Rutt

The Cryosphere, Volume: 4, Issue: 3, Pages: 397 - 417

Swansea University Author: Ian Rutt

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DOI (Published version): 10.5194/tc-4-397-2010

Abstract

Ice thickness and bedrock topography are essential boundary conditions for numerical modelling of the evolution of the Greenland ice-sheet (GrIS). The datasets currently in use by the majority of GrIS modelling studies are over two decades old and based on data collected from the 1970s and 80s. We u...

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Published in: The Cryosphere
ISSN: 1994-0424
Published: 2010
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa1028
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spelling 2015-09-30T10:19:51.3158440 v2 1028 2012-02-23 Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change f9c4ec2261d7314c99cb5eec0f75394f Ian Rutt Ian Rutt true false 2012-02-23 ARI Ice thickness and bedrock topography are essential boundary conditions for numerical modelling of the evolution of the Greenland ice-sheet (GrIS). The datasets currently in use by the majority of GrIS modelling studies are over two decades old and based on data collected from the 1970s and 80s. We use a newer, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model of the GrIS and new temperature and precipitation forcings to drive the Glimmer ice-sheet model offline under steady state, present day climatic conditions. Comparisons are made of ice-sheet geometry between these new datasets and older ones used in the EISMINT-3 exercise. We find that changing to the newer bedrock and ice thicknessmakes the greatest difference to Greenland ice volume and ice surface extent. When all boundary conditions and forcings are simultaneously changed to the newer datasets the ice-sheet is 33% larger in volume compared with observation and 17% larger than that modelled by EISMINT-3. We performed a tuning exercise to improve the modelled present day ice-sheet. Several solutions were chosen in order to represent improvement in different aspects of the GrIS geometry: ice thickness, ice volume and ice surface extent. We applied these new parameter sets for Glimmer to several future climate scenarios where atmospheric CO2 concentration was elevated to 400, 560 and 1120 ppmv (compared with 280 ppmv in the control) using a fully coupled General Circulation Model. Collapse of the ice-sheet was found to occur between 400 and 560 ppmv, a threshold substantially lower than previously modelled using the standard EISMINT-3 setup. This work highlights the need to assess carefully boundary conditions and forcings required by ice-sheet models, particularly in terms of the abstractions required for large-scale ice-sheet models, and the implications that these can have on predictions of ice-sheet geometry underpast and future climate scenarios. Journal Article The Cryosphere 4 3 397 417 1994-0424 29 9 2010 2010-09-29 10.5194/tc-4-397-2010 COLLEGE NANME Cultural Institute COLLEGE CODE ARI Swansea University 2015-09-30T10:19:51.3158440 2012-02-23T17:02:10.0000000 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography E. J Stone 1 D. J Lunt 2 I. C Rutt 3 E Hanna 4 Ian Rutt 5
title Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change
spellingShingle Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change
Ian Rutt
title_short Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change
title_full Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change
title_fullStr Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change
title_full_unstemmed Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change
title_sort Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change
author_id_str_mv f9c4ec2261d7314c99cb5eec0f75394f
author_id_fullname_str_mv f9c4ec2261d7314c99cb5eec0f75394f_***_Ian Rutt
author Ian Rutt
author2 E. J Stone
D. J Lunt
I. C Rutt
E Hanna
Ian Rutt
format Journal article
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 4
container_issue 3
container_start_page 397
publishDate 2010
institution Swansea University
issn 1994-0424
doi_str_mv 10.5194/tc-4-397-2010
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description Ice thickness and bedrock topography are essential boundary conditions for numerical modelling of the evolution of the Greenland ice-sheet (GrIS). The datasets currently in use by the majority of GrIS modelling studies are over two decades old and based on data collected from the 1970s and 80s. We use a newer, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model of the GrIS and new temperature and precipitation forcings to drive the Glimmer ice-sheet model offline under steady state, present day climatic conditions. Comparisons are made of ice-sheet geometry between these new datasets and older ones used in the EISMINT-3 exercise. We find that changing to the newer bedrock and ice thicknessmakes the greatest difference to Greenland ice volume and ice surface extent. When all boundary conditions and forcings are simultaneously changed to the newer datasets the ice-sheet is 33% larger in volume compared with observation and 17% larger than that modelled by EISMINT-3. We performed a tuning exercise to improve the modelled present day ice-sheet. Several solutions were chosen in order to represent improvement in different aspects of the GrIS geometry: ice thickness, ice volume and ice surface extent. We applied these new parameter sets for Glimmer to several future climate scenarios where atmospheric CO2 concentration was elevated to 400, 560 and 1120 ppmv (compared with 280 ppmv in the control) using a fully coupled General Circulation Model. Collapse of the ice-sheet was found to occur between 400 and 560 ppmv, a threshold substantially lower than previously modelled using the standard EISMINT-3 setup. This work highlights the need to assess carefully boundary conditions and forcings required by ice-sheet models, particularly in terms of the abstractions required for large-scale ice-sheet models, and the implications that these can have on predictions of ice-sheet geometry underpast and future climate scenarios.
published_date 2010-09-29T03:02:39Z
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score 11.013148

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